If you're antsy for March Madness and peak bracket season, there's no better way to warm up than by locking into the conference tournaments.
Last season, we had an amazing five bid thieves, and there's always some form of mayhem that takes place in traditional one-bid leagues.
What will this year's action bring?
Though we can likely agree that past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance, it's fun to analyze which tournaments have favored higher vs. lower seeds in recent history. The membership of many conferences has changed with continued realignment, so the primary focus will be on results since 2021. However, many trends that go further back are too juicy to ignore, so they will be mixed in as well.
Because there are many ways to characterize the volatility of a specific conference tournament, here is a sampling of the factors that were taken into consideration:
Average seed of the champion
Combined average seed of the finalists
How often the top 2- or 3-seeds lose their first game
How often a lower-seeded team makes a deep run
Now let's break it down.
Tournaments that have favored higher seeds
Note: Averages shown below are since 2021, unless otherwise noted.
West Coast Conference (WCC)
Average seed of champion: 1.3 (T-2nd lowest)
Average combined seed of finalists: 3.0 (lowest)
There is no more predictable conference tourney this century than the WCC. It all starts with Gonzaga, which has made the title game an astounding 27 straight years, always as the No. 1 or No. 2 seed.
No conference comes close to the WCC in holding form at the top, either, as it has been a 1-vs.-2 in the title game 15 of the past 16 years. In 12 of those 15 years, it has been Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary's -- BYU, which has since left the conference, is the only other team to make the finals in that span.
While it's worth noting the top two seeds have received a bye to the semis in 17 of the past 22 tournaments, other leagues also do this without such amazing predictability.
Southern Conference (SoCon)
Average seed of champion: 1.0 (lowest)
Average combined seed of finalists: 6.8 (T-10th highest)
The No. 1 seed has won the SoCon tourney seven years in a row -- no other league has a streak longer than three. Interestingly, each of the past six champions have been different, flexing the league's depth.
While the champ has been chalky, the average seed of the runner-up since 2021 is actually tied for the second highest (5.8) of the 31 conferences, but there's a simple explanation for that: Blame the 7-seed. Over this seven-year streak, the No. 1 seed has faced the winner of the 2-vs.-7 quarterfinal matchup every year (No. 7 has four runners-up and No. 2 has three). Remarkably, No. 7 seeds have won three games to reach the title game four times in the past five years.
Patriot League
Average seed of champion: 1.3 (T-2nd lowest)
Average combined seed of finalists: 7.0 (9th highest)
Similar to the SoCon, the Patriot League tournament has generally been won by the top seed -- in three straight years and six of the past eight -- while the runners-up have been Cinderella types (6-seeds the past two years and a No. 9 in 2021). There are two big differences between the two conferences, though.
1. In the Patriot, it has been a one-team show: Colgate has won four straight titles and appeared in seven straight championship games.
2. While the Southern Conference tourney takes place at a neutral site (Asheville, North Carolina), the higher seed hosts each game throughout the Patriot tourney, a nice advantage for a dominant Colgate team that lost just three conference home games in those four seasons.
Southland Conference
Average seed of champion: 2.0 (T-7th lowest)
Average combined seed of finalists: 4.0 (T-2nd lowest)
Since altering the bracket to give the 1- and 2-seeds a bye to the semifinals in 2013, the Southland has mostly avoided major upsets for its auto-bid.
The top seed has won each of the past two years, and either the 1- or 2-seed has raised the trophy nine of the past 12 tournaments. The biggest surprise over this span was in 2022, when No. 4 seed Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (7-7 in conference play) knocked off the No. 1 and No. 2 en route to the title.
At least one of the top two seeds has reached the championship game every year since 2013. And the last time a team seeded fifth or worse made the title game was 2011.
Missouri Valley Conference (MVC)
Average seed of champion: 2.3 (T-13th highest)
Average combined seed of finalists: 4.0 (T-2nd lowest)
Despite a traditional bracket setup -- there are no byes to the semis in Arch Madness, baby! -- we have gotten a 1-vs.-2 title game in three of the past four years, with No. 2 seed Drake winning in 2023 and 2024.
There have been very few upsets in the early rounds over this span, as the top four seeds have reached the semifinals three of the past four years.
Here's a "wow" fact from the Valley: The No. 1 and No. 2 seeds have lost in the quarterfinals only once each in the past 26 MVC tourneys ... and it happened in the same year (2020).
Summit League
Average seed of champion: 1.8 (T-4th lowest)
Average combined seed of finalists: 5.5 (T-11th lowest)
The No. 1 seed has won each of the past three tourney championships, and only three teams seeded fifth or worse reached the title game in the past 18 years -- none of which won.
And there hasn't been much variety in the schools to earn the Summit League's automatic bid, either. The past 13 titles have been won by only three schools: South Dakota State (seven times), North Dakota State (four times) and Oral Roberts (twice).
Western Athletic Conference (WAC)
Average seed of champion: 2.0 (T-7th lowest)
Average combined seed of finalists: 5.8 (T-15th lowest)
While conference membership has changed often in recent years, the results in the WAC tourney have been rather consistent.
Grand Canyon has won three of the past four years and is the only current conference member to win a WAC tourney championship.
And check out these trends for the top three seeds in the past six tournaments:
The No. 1 seed has taken home the hardware five times.
The No. 3 seed has lost in the championship game five times.
The No. 2 seed has lost in the semifinals all six times.
America East
Average seed of champion: 1.8 (T-4th lowest)
Average combined seed of finalists: 4.8 (8th lowest)
Vermont has won three straight years, all as the No. 1 seed, hosting and beating the No. 2 seed each time. In all, the Catamounts have won four of the past five America East tournaments that were completed.
Higher seeds getting to play at home has its benefits: The championship game has been 1-vs.-2 or 1-vs.-3 nine of the past 10 years (including 2020 when the matchup was set before the tournament was cut short because of COVID).
Tourneys that have favored lower seeds
Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC)
Average seed of champion: 6.3 (Highest)
Average combined seed of finalists: 7.8 (5th highest)
Not only does the ACC have the highest average seed of its champion the past four years, but it also has the lowest average seed of its runner-up. That's hard to do.
The past four winners have all been seeded fourth or worse (including 7-seed Virginia Tech in 2022 and 10-seed NC State becoming the second team to win five games in five days last year). And the bracket didn't exactly "open up" for them, either, as all four defeated a 1- or 2-seed in the title game. In fact, Virginia Tech and NC State beat the top three seeds to finish off their runs.
There has even been drama in the early rounds, as five double-digit seeds have won at least two games to reach the quarterfinal round, including a pair of No. 13s (Miami in 2021 and Boston College in 2022). It's no wonder the ACC has had the top two seeds meet in the title game just once since 2012.
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC)
Average seed of champion: 4.3 (2nd highest)
Average combined seed of finalists: 10.3 (Highest)
The MAAC is the only conference to have multiple top-three seeds lose in the quarterfinals in three of the past four years. Since 2018, the top three seeds are a combined 8-10 in the quarters.
When most of the big boys get bounced early, mayhem often ensues, and the MAAC hasn't disappointed in that regard.
At least one team seeded fourth or worse has reached the title game in seven straight tourneys: No. 11 seed Marist won three games to get there in 2023, and 2021 featured the rare 9-vs.-7 seed matchup when Iona beat Fairfield for the auto-bid.
Expecting the unexpected hasn't applied to the school that takes home the trophy, though, as it has been either Iona (six) or Saint Peter's (two) cutting down the nets in the past eight tourneys.
Sun Belt
Average seed of champion: 3.8 (3rd highest)
Average combined seed of finalists: 9.3 (2nd highest)
This year, the Sun Belt is trying a new format for its conference tournament, and the result is maybe the most interesting bracket you've ever seen.
The numbers you see above from the past four years in a traditional bracket just may have been the impetus for such change, as strange things have been afoot.
Let's start with the No. 1 seed, which has lost its first game in three of the past four years and hasn't reached the title game since 2019. The No. 8 seed advanced to the title game three straight years between 2021 and 2023, winning in 2021. (App State was technically the 4-seed from the East Division, which equated to No. 8 overall.)
Finally, there's the curious case of Texas State: The Bobcats were the No. 1 seed in 2021 and 2022 but didn't win any games. Then in 2023 and 2024, as the 11-seed both times, they won three games each year to reach the semifinals.
We'll soon see if seven straight days of conference tournament play brings a different result.
Atlantic 10 (A-10)
Average seed of champion: 3.5 (T-4th highest)
Average combined seed of finalists: 6.0 (15th highest)
If it feels like this tourney is among the toughest to handicap each year, you're right. That's easy to say after the top four seeds each lost in the quarterfinals last year, setting the stage for eventual bid stealer, Duquesne.
Interestingly, the No. 6 seed has won three of the past five A-10 tourney titles, and a team seeded third or worse has won eight of the past 10.
Meanwhile, life as a No. 2 seed has been rather heartbreaking. No. 2s have reached the title game in seven of the past 11 tournaments, with no titles to show for it. The last 2-seed to win was Temple in 2008.
There have been eight straight A-10 tournaments without a repeat winner, the longest current streak, just ahead of the NEC (seven), Conference USA (seven) and the Southern Conference (six). And it wouldn't take a miracle to get another new winner this year, as three of the top four seeds (as of this writing) haven't won in this span: George Mason, Loyola Chicago and Dayton.
Other Notables
The No. 1 seed in the SEC has lost its first game in four of the past six tourneys.
The Big Ten has gone 16 straight tournaments without a 1-vs.-2 matchup in the title game; the last was in 2007, when OSU beat Wisconsin. The next-longest drought is seven straight (ACC, Big Sky and MAAC).
Kansas is the only school to win the Big 12 tournament as a No. 1 seed in the past 20 years (seven times). And Iowa State is the only school in Big 12 tourney history (since 1997) to win the title seeded lower than No. 3 (twice as a No. 4 and once as a No. 5).
The No. 1 or 2 seed has lost its first game in five of the past six Big Sky tournaments. Despite that, last year was the first time the 1- or 2-seed didn't win the tourney since 2010, a 12-tournament streak. Why? Because both top seeds lost their first game in 2024 (Eastern Washington and Northern Colorado).
The Big West hasn't seen a team seeded fifth or worse reach the title game since 2015.
The No. 2 seed has won five straight Ivy League tournament titles. The only time the top seed won Ivy Madness was in its inaugural year of 2017.
San Diego State has reached the Mountain West tourney finals seven straight years and 14 of the past 16.