Mike Hopkins' biggest win for Washington since replacing Lorenzo Romar as head coach two years ago was convincing his core group of now seniors Noah Dickerson, David Crisp, Dominic Green and Matisse Thybulle to stay in Seattle and trust what he was about to do. They bought in, and by relying on the zone defense Hopkins learned under Jim Boeheim at Syracuse, they have taken a two-win Pac-12 team the season before his arrival to a conference championship this season.
Now that the Huskies have conquered the Pac-12 and recorded consecutive 20-win seasons, can Hopkins and his seniors have success in the program's first trip to the NCAA tournament since 2011?
ESPN+ has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: at Oregon, at Colorado
Worst loss: at Cal
Regular-season conference finish: 1st, Pac-12
Polls and metrics: At 38, the NCAA's new NET ranking views the Huskies better than either KenPom (47) or BPI (48).
All-time tourney record: 18-17 (1 Final Four)
Coach (tourney record): Mike Hopkins (0-0)
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 10.)
Starting lineup
F Noah Dickerson (12.9 PPG, 7.2 RPG)
F Hameir Wright (2.6 PPG, 2.4 RPG)
G Matisse Thybulle (9.5 PPG, 3.5 SPG)
G Jaylen Nowell (16.3 PPG, 3.1 APG)
G David Crisp (12.6 PPG, 2.6 APG)
Key bench players
F Dominic Green (6.2 PPG, 2.9 RPG)
F Nahziah Carter (7.6 PPG, 2.6 RPG)
F Sam Timmins (2.1 PPG, 2.4 RPG)
Biggest strength: Thanks to a swarming zone and the ball-hawking talents of Thybulle, Washington has become an elite-level defensive team. With Wright (6-9), Carter (6-8), Nowell (6-4) and Green (6-6) to go with Thybulle at 6-4, Hopkins can put length all over the perimeter, limiting passing lanes and good looks.
Biggest weakness: As good and reliable as the Huskies defense is, the offense is not. Nowell is a skilled scorer and one of the best in the Pac-12, but no other Husky is a dependable shooter. Consistency has been elusive, and Washington struggled even more down the stretch. Right after clinching the conference crown, the Huskies went into a funk that included a loss to cellar-dwelling Cal and a 47-point effort against Oregon. They seemingly can't rely on any one player to make jump shots.
Best player: Nowell was the Pac-12 Player of the Year, but Thybulle is the most impactful player in the conference. Imagine another Player of the Year candidate who doesn't even average 10 points. That's how good of a defender Thybulle is. He broke Jason Kidd's Pac-12 single-season steals record, is a threat to Gary Payton's career mark and is only the second Division I player in 35 years with more than 100 steals and 70 blocks in consecutive seasons. Ron Harper at Miami (Ohio) was the other. Opposing coaches have a game plan of running their offense away from him. Thybulle's ability to disrupt is the single greatest asset Hopkins has at his disposal.
X factor: Dickerson. Granted his release when Romar was fired, Dickerson ultimately elected to stay and has become the centerpiece of the Huskies' chemistry. His numbers fell off from his junior season, but his presence is invaluable. The offense runs better and is more balanced when the 6-8 senior is getting touches in the lane. The quality of shots for Novell and Crisp is related to the attention that opposing teams are forced to give Dickerson.
SCOUTING REPORT
How they beat you: The Huskies are built on defense. Hopkins inherited a group of players two years ago and not only convinced them to stay in Seattle, but immediately got them to buy into his style. Washington's aim is to be disruptive. Thybulle has thrived in the zone, jumping passing lanes and blocking shots at equal levels of effectiveness. Nowell is an all-conference level offensive player, Dickerson is efficient in the lane and Crisp can be a sneaky good shooter. But Washington won the Pac-12 and will advance in the NCAA tournament by making the other team uncomfortable.
How you beat them: Attack the zone from the high post. It is the soft underbelly of the Huskies' defense and opens up passing lanes that otherwise don't materialize. Arizona State did it brilliantly in their Feb. 9 meeting and shot 61.7 percent, the best percentage against Washington all season. Thybulle will roam freely near the top of the zone. He anticipates and moves so well that guards need to be strong with the ball at all times. The Huskies are also not good rebounding out of the zone, ranking 342nd in defensive rebounding rate.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 10.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 116th (107.4)
Defensive efficiency, 17th (92.9)
3-point percentage, 152nd (34.7)
3-point percentage D, 81st (32.8)
Free throw rate, 102nd (35.6)
Free throw rate D, 213th (34.1)
TO percentage, 265th (19.9)
TO percentage D, 4th (23.9
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Second weekend
When Hopkins was at Syracuse, the 2-3 defense was notoriously difficult for teams to beat in the NCAA tournament -- given the short turnaround times. Washington has that same advantage. The Huskies gave Gonzaga fits in December and Zags coach Mark Few called it "a handful." Thybulle is a secret weapon in that regard, an all-court defensive presence that doesn't exist anywhere else in the game. The Huskies might not be talented or diverse enough to make a Final Four, but they are talented enough to put a pair of wins together.
Worst-case scenario: One and done
If Washington was capable of losing to eight-win Cal, then the Huskies aren't safe against anyone. If the offensive issues that became more prominent at the end of the regular season linger, this first trip to the NCAA tournament in eight years could be a short one. The defense can put them in position to win, but there will be moments when a basket is necessary. That's when Nowell will need to deliver.