Buzz Williams has done one of the finest coaching jobs of his career in 2018-19, leading the Virginia Tech Hokies to a fifth-place finish in the ACC despite losing senior forward Chris Clarke (suspension) and freshman forward Landers Nolley (NCAA Clearinghouse issue). Virginia Tech then lost starting senior point guard Justin Robinson in late January to a foot injury, but got some good news on Selection Sunday: he will be ready for the Big Dance.
With Robinson on the shelf, Williams handed over the reins of the offense to 6-5 sophomore Nickeil Alexander-Walker, a natural wing with an NBA future, and the Hokies kept rolling to their third straight 20-plus win season. Alexander-Walker teamed with junior low-post operator Kerry Blackshear to give the Hokies one of the ACC's most feared duos. Now that they're in the field of 68, and with Robinson unlikely to return, can the sweet-shooting Hokies still enjoy a longer-than-expected stay in the Big Dance?
ESPN+ has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: vs. Purdue, vs. Washington, vs. Syracuse, at N.C. State, vs. Duke
Worst losses: at Penn State
Regular season conference finish: 5th, ACC
Polls and metrics: A top-25 fixture in the polls for most of the season, Virginia Tech is perched at No. 11 in the NET rankings.
All-time tourney record: 6-9
Coach (tourney record): Buzz Williams (8-6)
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 12.)
Starting lineup
F Kerry Blackshear (14.5 PPG, 7.2 RPG)
G/F Ty Outlaw (8.8 PPG, 5.1 RPG)
G Ahmed Hill (13.3 PPG, 3.9 RPG)
G Nickeil Alexander-Walker (16.6 PPG, 3.9 APG)
G Wabissa Bede (3.6 PPG, 2.4 APG)
Key bench players
G Justin Robinson (13.7 PPG, 5.2 APG)
F P.J. Horne (3.8 PPG, 2.5 RPG)
G Isaiah Wilkins (4.8 PPG, 2.3 RPG)
Biggest strength: The Hokies go with a four-guard lineup that will strengthen with the return of Robinson, one of the ACC's top table-setters. This allows Buzz's bunch to spread teams out and slice them up with dribble penetration and kick-outs to 3-point shooters. And if the clock shot is running down, Williams can always run an isolation for either Blackshear, a 2019 second-team All-ACC performer, or Alexander-Walker, a third-teamer.
Biggest weakness: The trade-off with small-ball lineups, like the one Virginia Tech employs, is that rebounding and interior D can be serious issues against a team with a viable inside attack.
Best players: The ACC is the college hoops equivalent of MMA, so to have two All-ACC players on one roster, like the Hokies do in Blackshear and Alexander-Walker, is quite an accomplishment. The 6-10 Blackshear comes from a hoops family (his mom and dad both starred at Stetson) and is the centerpiece of the offense because he can score and pass, has a high basketball IQ, and never seems to tire. Alexander-Walker is deadly as a straight-line driver, so a tall, uber-athletic wing must defend him -- or else.
X factor: Senior guard Hill, a former four-star recruit out of Augusta, Georgia, first committed to play for Williams at Marquette and then followed him to Virginia Tech. Hill made the right call. He has blossomed into a terrific two-way player for the Hokies, starting every game, averaging in double figures, and never turning down a tough defensive assignment in Williams' Cover 2 defense.
SCOUTING REPORT
How they beat you: Williams' squad is ultra-efficient at both ends of the floor, as its top-30 national ranking in both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency clearly illustrates. The Hokies play straight-up analytics ball at the offensive end, looking for primarily three things: 3-balls, layups and foul shots.
How you beat them: You need to punish the Hokies for going small by playing paintball against them, beating them up inside and on the glass. In addition, Williams has taken a page or three from Virginia's "pack-line" defensive approach in his Cover 2 defense. The Hokies pack in their defense and do everything in their power to cut off drivers with help defense. So spread them out, draw a second defender and then kick the ball out to the open shooter.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 12.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 8th (119.4)
Defensive efficiency, 30th (94.8)
3-point percentage, 7th (39.8)
3-point percentage D, 101st (33.2)
Free throw rate, 205th (32.4)
Free throw rate D, 28th (26.7)
TO percentage, 118th (17.7)
TO percentage D, 26th (21.8)
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Sweet 16
The Hokies finished fifth in the ACC, a league in which every game is a 40-minute fight against NBA talent-laden rosters. So this team is no joke. Guards are gold in March Madness games, and Williams has two healthy double-figure-scoring ones in Alexander-Walker and Hill. Throw in Blackshear, a double-double threat every time he laces up his high-tops, into the mix and the Hokies are certainly equipped to win a couple of Big Dance contests.
Worst-case scenario: One-and-done
The Hokies' small-ball lineup can be exploited on the boards. In close games, which occur often in the opening rounds of March Madness, giving up extra possessions by not securing rebounds can get teams eliminated sooner than they'd like.