The Virginia Cavaliers have waited 52 weeks to avenge last March's historic upset defeat by UMBC, the first-ever No. 1 seed loss to a 16 seed. Fueled by that disappointment and playing with a chip on their collective shoulders, the Cavaliers have been an absolute juggernaut this year, using Tony Bennett's simple yet proven recipe for success -- value each possession, pass up a good shot to share the ball with a teammate who has a better one, shoot the 3-ball effectively, and play defense or sit on the pine.
But despite all of the regular season success in the rough-and-tumble ACC, Bennett is just 7-6 in NCAA tourney games at Virginia. After yet another dominant regular season, do the Cavaliers have what it takes to erase last year's pain and win the school's first national title?
ESPN+ has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: vs. Wisconsin, at Maryland, at North Carolina, vs. Florida State, Louisville (twice), Virginia Tech (twice)
Worst losses: None
Regular season conference finish: Tied 1st, ACC
Polls and metrics: By any measure, Virginia is a terrific basketball team -- whether it's the AP or Coaches Poll (No. 2), RPI (No. 3) or NET (No. 2).
All-time tourney record: 29-22
Coach (tourney record): Tony Bennett (10-8), one Elite Eight
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 10.)
Starting lineup
C Jack Salt (3.6 PPG, 3.9 RPG)
F Mamadi Diakite (7.1 PPG, 4.0 RPG)
G De'Andre Hunter (15.2 PPG, 5.2 RPG)
G Ty Jerome (13.5 PPG, 5.3 APG)
G Kyle Guy (15.3 PPG,4.5 RPG)
Key bench players
G Kihei Clark (4.1 PPG, 2.3 APG)
G Braxton Key (6.3 PPG, 5.5 RPG)
F Jay Huff (5.1 PPG, 2.6 RPG)
Biggest strength: Charlottesville is home to arguably the nation's best coach in Bennett, the country's most impenetrable defense (54.6 PPG allowed), as well as three starters with anywhere-in-the-gym range in Hunter, Guy and Jerome. That seems like a recipe to rebound from last year's first-round debacle.
Biggest weakness: In 30 regular season games, the Cavaliers didn't lose to anyone not named Duke. So unearthing the Cavs' weaknesses is the hoops equivalent of squinting for imperfections in Margot Robbie. The only wart that springs to mind is that Virginia plays at a snail's pace and relies heavily on the 3-ball. So if their long-ball aim is really off-kilter, then Bennett's bunch could possibly get upset again.
Best player: With America's attention squarely focused on another ACC forward (Duke's rim-rattling, Nike-bursting Zion Williamson), Virginia's redshirt sophomore De'Andre Hunter is vastly underpublicized for a probable 2019 NBA lottery pick. Hunter, the 2019 ACC Defensive Player of the Year, can defend anyone from point guards to power forwards, heats up faster than a microwave from the field and works tirelessly every night. And Hunter won't lack motivation after missing last March's NCAA tourney flameout vs. UMBC with an injury.
X factor: The net-snapping jump shots of starters Hunter (.473 3PT), Guy (.451 3PT), Jerome (.426 33PT) and Diakite (.417 3PT). If that weren't first-rate arc work, big man Huff comes off the bench and can also stretch defenses with his jump shot. The Cavaliers' uncanny ability to drain 3-pointers, even contested ones, makes them a legit threat to win the NCAA title.
SCOUTING REPORT
How they beat you: The Cavaliers absolutely smother opponents with their pack-line defense. They allow foes to make just 19.7 field goals per game (that's not a typo), and opponents shoot just 37.4 percent from the field and 27.3 percent from 3-point range. If that weren't frustrating enough, Virginia plays at a snail's pace on offense, forcing foes to guard them for the entire shot clock before placing the ball in the hands of one of its three double-digit scoring guards (Hunter, Guy or Jerome) to work their magic.
How you beat them: The Cavaliers slow games to a men's over-40 beer league pace, limiting the number of possessions in the game and thus increasing the odds for an upset to happen. Since 2011, there have been nine teams seeded 1, 2 or 3 that have also ranked in the bottom 20 nationally for adjusted tempo. One is this year's Virginia squad (national low 59.2 possessions per game). Another was last year's Virginia squad that was upset by UMBC. Two others -- No. 3 Syracuse in 2014 and No. 2 Virginia in 2015 -- lost in the round of 32. Only two of the nine, No. 1 Wisconsin (2015) and No. 3 Michigan (2018), made it to the national title game, and neither won.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 10.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 2nd (124.0)
Defensive efficiency, 3rd (87.3)
3-point percentage, 4th (41.4)
3-point percentage D, 1st (27.3)
Free throw rate, 266th (30.0)
Free throw rate D, 32nd (27.0)
TO percentage, 14th (14.8)
TO percentage D, 231st (17.7)
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: National champs
Virginia has vaulted itself into the elite-level neighborhood of ACC blue bloods Duke and North Carolina. The Cavaliers possess several championship traits: elite coaching, balanced scoring, tireless defense and strong guard play. To truly join Duke and Carolina in the ACC penthouse though, Virginia needs a national title, and this team is good enough to finally quiet the skeptics and get one.
Worst-case scenario: Sweet 16
Virginia's deliberate style of play, which significantly lessens the number of total possessions in the ballgame, can essentially keep both teams in the game. That greatly increases the likelihood of the Cavs getting beaten by an inferior opponent on a last-second dagger.