One year after cutting down the nets as national champions, the Villanova Wildcats return to the NCAA tournament. Jay Wright's team lost four players to the NBA after winning it all yet rebounded to win the regular-season Big East crown. In what could have been a transitional season, Villanova found a way to meld the contributions from returning veterans and fresh faces into a winning formula. The Wildcats don't have the talent they had while winning two of the past three national championships, but do they have what it takes to make noise this March?
ESPN+ has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel, and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: vs. Florida State, vs. Temple, vs. Marquette, at Creighton
Worst losses: at Penn, at Georgetown, vs. Furman
Regular-season conference finish: 1st, Big East
Polls and metrics: BPI places Villanova as the 21st-best team in the nation, with KenPom (26th) and NET (25th) not far behind.
All-time tourney record: 64-36 (Six Final Fours, three national championships)
Coach (tourney record): Jay Wright (27-13)
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 11.)
Starting lineup
F Eric Paschall (16.5 PPG, 6.1 RPG)
F Jermaine Samuels (5.5 PPG, 5.2 RPG)
F Saddiq Bey (8.4 PPG, 5.2 RPG)
G Collin Gillespie (8.4 PPG, 2.8 APG)
G Phil Booth (18.6 PPG, 3.9 APG)
Key bench players
C Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree (5.3 PPG, 5.8 RPG)
G Joe Cremo (4.7 PPG, 1.4 APG)
G Jahvon Quinerly (3.9 PPG, 0.9 APG)
Biggest strength: Jay Wright's offensive system leads to open shots and smart decisions from his players. Villanova ranks third in the Big East in assists while committing the fewest turnovers in the conference. Players such as Booth and Paschall aren't elite scorers, but they find ways to produce for Villanova by finding the right opportunities. Villanova ranks 13th in the nation in offensive efficiency and plays the slowest tempo in the Big East. That patience and basketball intelligence fuel Villanova's offensive success.
Biggest weakness: Villanova's offense leads to open shots, but this season, Wright does not have the shooters to always take advantage like he has in years past. Villanova has attempted the sixth-most 3-pointers in all of college basketball, with just two teams in the nation making a higher percentage of their field goal attempts from beyond the arc. Despite that volume, Villanova is shooting just 35.5 percent from long range, placing outside the top 100 in the nation and in the middle of the pack in the Big East. Villanova has been desperate for a player other than Booth or Paschall to consistently produce, but none of the other Wildcats is a strong enough shooter to be relied on to score dependably.
Best player: Booth is a fifth-year senior with two national championships to his name. He plays like it on both ends of the floor, leading the Wildcats in scoring and playing tenacious defense on the perimeter. This is the first time in his career that Booth has been a primary option for Villanova, and he has answered the call. Booth is a good outside shooter, effective slasher and smart passer.
X factor: Samuels, an athletic sophomore forward, has had a roller-coaster season. At times, he has looked capable of stepping into an expanded role in the offense. He shot a perfect 3-for-3 from outside in a win over Temple. He hit five 3-pointers and scored 29 points in a win over Marquette. At other times, Samuels has looked scared to shoot and unable to contribute at all. He's shooting just 29 percent from long range and 58 percent from the free throw line in two seasons as a Wildcat. Samuels has failed to score in nine games this season. His highs and lows make him a true X factor this March.
SCOUTING REPORT
How they beat you: Villanova wants to play at its pace: slow and methodical. The Wildcats want to work the ball around, hunting for a strong look at the rim every time down the floor. When they do this successfully, it leads to scoring chances for players other than Booth and Paschall. When Villanova plays winning basketball, it is finding scoring chances for Gillespie, Samuels and Bey. Those players are all highly capable of contributing to wins when they are put in position to succeed.
How you beat them: Villanova is going to shoot a ton of 3s in every game it plays. The Wildcats have attempted fewer than 15 long balls just once all season. Teams have been successful against Villanova when those 3-point attempts are contested or when the wrong players are shooting those attempts. Because it relies so heavily on jump shots, Villanova's offense has a tendency to run into scoring droughts. Teams that have beaten Villanova feast on those slow scoring moments to enact big runs and build leads.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 11.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 14th (117.9)
Defensive efficiency, 80th (99.2)
3-point percentage, 114th (35.5)
3-point percentage D, 181st (34.4)
Free throw rate, 123rd (34.9)
Free throw rate D, 70th (29.0)
TO percentage, 66th (16.8)
TO percentage D, 210th (18.0)
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: A run into late March
This Villanova team lost so much production, leadership and talent from last year's championship squad. When the Wildcats lost to Michigan (by 27 points) and Furman in back-to-back November home games, many wrote off this squad. Villanova responded with a Big East regular-season championship and brings tons of March experience to the Big Dance. These Wildcats are a threat to win multiple games and earn their way to the Sweet Sixteen, Elite Eight or beyond.
Worst-case scenario: One and done
Teams that shoot a high volume of 3s, like Villanova has this season, have a checkered past in tournament play. The cliché of "live by the 3, die by the 3" comes to fruition for a few programs every March. If Villanova is forced to take a ton of tough outside shots, it could struggle. Without a crop of knockdown shooters, a particularly cold night could doom the Cats to an early departure.