Last season, the Vermont Catamounts needed one home victory in the America East Conference tournament final to earn an NCAA tournament bid and enter the Big Dance with a real chance to win some games. Instead, UMBC shocked the Catamounts with a buzzer-beating, game-winning 3-pointer to steal the automatic bid and went on to become one of the all-time great Cinderellas in tournament history. This year, with a chance for revenge, Vermont sealed the deal, beating UMBC to earn its way to the NCAA tournament. Can the Catamounts follow their conference rival's lead and etch their name onto the long list of March miracles?
ESPN+ has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: vs. Yale, vs. Northeastern, vs. Harvard
Worst losses: at UMBC, vs. UMBC
Regular season conference finish: 1st, America East
Polls and metrics: Metrics all place Vermont as a top-100 team. The Catamounts rank 57th in BPI, 75th in NET and 84th in KenPom.
All-time tourney record: 2-6 (0 Final Fours)
Coach (tourney record): John Becker (1-2)
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 15.)
Starting lineup
F Anthony Lamb (21.1 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 2.0 BPG)
F Samuel Dingba (2.9 PPG, 3.3 RPG)
G Robin Duncan (4.7 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 2.6 APG)
G Ernie Duncan (14.1 PPG, 2.1 APG)
G Stef Smith (12.1 PPG, 4.0 RPG)
Key bench players
G Everett Duncan (6.5 PPG, 3.5 RPG)
F Isaiah Moll (5.6 PPG, 3.1 RPG)
G Ben Shungu (3.8 PPG, 2.9 RPG)
Biggest strength: The Catamounts are among the nation's best at getting defensive stops and clearing the glass. In conference play, Vermont allowed just 0.885 points per possession, lowest in the America East. The Catamounts gave up the 16th-lowest points per game in all of college basketball. Becker has taught his team the value of defensive rebounding once it gets a stop. Only three teams in the nation allowed a lower percentage of offensive rebounds following their opponents' misses. All five Catamounts box out and work in tandem to turn defense into offense.
Biggest weakness: It is amazing how well Vermont rebounds, given the structure of its roster. Only one player taller than 6-foot-6 plays more than 10 minutes per game for the Catamounts. Most Vermont lineups feature 6-6 junior Anthony Lamb at center. Against mid-majors, that hasn't hurt the Catamounts. In the few chances Vermont has had to upset a power-conference foe, the lack of size has been noticeable. Kansas and Louisville both controlled the glass and won the battle in the paint versus Vermont.
Best player: Lamb is one of the best all-around players in college basketball, having won America East Player of the Year unanimously following a fantastic season. Lamb scores more than 20 points per game, records double-doubles on a regular basis and is also an excellent defender. He had always been a factor on the low post, yet really improved his game this season by becoming a stronger ball handler and 3-point shooter. Lamb led the America East Conference in scoring, due to drawing the most fouls in league play and living on the free throw line.
X factor: The Duncan brothers give Vermont an interesting element rarely seen in college basketball. All three are valued contributors to the Catamounts, each providing a different style of play. Redshirt senior Ernie Duncan is a strong shooter, able to attack the paint with a pump fake. Redshirt junior Everett Duncan is a pure knockdown shooter and is automatic from the free throw line. Freshman Robin Duncan is the most athletic of the three, making him the best penetrator with the ball in his hands. The chemistry between the brothers and their collective basketball IQ makes for a special connection on the court.
SCOUTING REPORT
How they beat you: Vermont's offense is fueled by Lamb. He loves to work off the high post at the elbow, looking for jump shots against smaller defenders or a quick power drive against slower big men. Vermont surrounds Lamb with shooters and playmakers, making it tough to double-team Lamb when he catches the ball. On the other end, Vermont plays active man-to-man, with a very switch-friendly lineup to frustrate opponents.
How you beat them: To beat Vermont, any team will need to make things difficult for Lamb. He's good enough to exploit a bad matchup or a predictable double-team. Instead, teams have found success taking him out of his comfort zone and making him more of a jump shooter. Vermont's size limitations can leave the Catamounts susceptible to trouble in the paint. Lamb is a strong defender and Vermont rebounds exceptionally well as a team, but that can only go so far when playing against much bigger opponents.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 15.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 104th (108.1)
Defensive efficiency, 91st (99.6)
3-point percentage, 112th (35.4)
3-point percentage D, 237th (35.5)
Free throw rate, 90th (36.0)
Free throw rate D, 21st (26.1)
TO percentage, 54th (16.6)
TO percentage D, 117th (19.3)
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Sweet Sixteen
This Vermont team has real talent and a strong identity. With Lamb and Ernie Duncan both capable of taking over offensively, the Catamounts are tough to stop when they are clicking. If those two upperclassman can score enough to keep Vermont competitive, Becker's team is good enough defensively to get stops and steal a win against anyone.
Worst-case scenario: A blowout loss
There's a clear reason why Vermont's performance in conference is so much better statistically than its nonconference performance: The America East is a drop-off from the level of competition Vermont faced earlier in the year. Although the Catamounts hung around in games against top competition, they weren't able to seal the deal in their chances against tournament level teams. If the size, speed and athleticism of a highly seeded foe is too much to handle, Vermont could spin its wheels trying to catch up and fall well behind.