The VCU Rams are back in the Big Dance after a one-year hiatus and primed for the type of postseason success they've enjoyed in the past. Mike Rhoades has his team defending at a high level in only his second season back in Richmond after three years as head coach at Rice. Can the Rams shake off an A-10 quarterfinals loss and deal with the uncertainty of the injury suffered in that game by leading scorer Marcus Evans?
ESPN+ has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: Temple, vs. Hofstra, at Texas, Dayton (twice)
Worst losses: at Rhode Island
Regular season conference finish: 1st, Atlantic 10
Polls and metrics: BPI ranked the Rams at No. 34 as of March 10, while KenPom had them one notch higher at No. 33. The NCAA's new NET ranking had VCU at No. 31 in its most recent release.
All-time tourney record: 13-16 (1 Final Four)
Coach (tourney record): Mike Rhoades (0-0)
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 10.)
Starting lineup
C Marcus Santos-Silva (9.5 PPG, 7.0 RPG)
F Issac Vann (11.0 PPG, 3.6 RPG)
F Sean Mobley (4.3 PPG, 2.6 RPG)
G De'Riante Jenkins (11.3 PPG, 3.9 RPG)
G Marcus Evans (14.2 PPG, 3.3 APG)
Key bench players
F Vince Williams (4.8 PPG, 3.2 RPG)
G/F Mike'L Simms (4.6 PPG, 2.0 RPG)
F Corey Douglas (3.7 PPG, 3.7 RPG)
Biggest strength: The Rams have the luxury of playing 11 guys, which helps fuel one of the most efficient defenses in the country. The difference between present-day VCU and trailblazer Shaka Smart's teams is that this one actually defends in the half court. There's no more of the "beat the pressure and there will be shots" narrative. The A-10 regular-season champs limit everything with their aggressive brand of man-to-man, and the results have been murder for their opponents.
Biggest weakness: 3-point shooting. The Rams rank in the bottom 22 in the country in 3-point percentage. Both of their conference losses came in games in which they shot less than 20 percent from downtown. They'll have a tough time going shot for shot with teams who are particularly skilled in that department.
Best player: Evans. The Rice transfer and first-team all-conference selection had to adjust his mindset coming off of surgeries on both Achilles tendons. His alpha-dog mentality will be put to the test once again after hyperextending his knee in the A-10 quarterfinal loss to Rhode Island. Hope remains that Evans will be ready to go for the first round. He's the engine that fuels their pressure, and the ability to make a deep run largely depends on his status.
X factor: Jenkins. The big guard from tiny Eutawville, South Carolina is the Rams' most consistent and confident perimeter shooter. If Evans can't go or isn't himself, Jenkins has to be there to pick up the slack. On a team that lacks continuity from the outside, VCU can count on the junior to take and make big shots when they need them most.
SCOUTING REPORT
How they beat you: VCU simply wears teams out defensively. No one plays more than 28 minutes per game in Rhoades' "army" rotation, meaning there are sometimes five fresh bodies on the floor to set up pressure. That can be a long and exhausting night as George Mason learned first-hand. The Rams held the Patriots to only 36 points on their senior night in Fairfax, the lowest point total for Mason in 18 years.
How you beat them: Pack the lane, cut off their dribble penetration and call their bluff from the outside. VCU's only two regular-season losses since the New Year came to teams who were adept at defending the 3. They are one of the worst 3-point percentage teams in the country, and that isn't likely to change any time soon.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 10.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 173rd (104.2)
Defensive efficiency, 5th (87.6)
3-point percentage, 331st (30.6)
3-point percentage D, 2nd (27.4)
Free throw rate, 97th (35.8)
Free throw rate D, 280th (37.2)
TO percentage, 281st (20.1)
TO percentage D, 6th (23.6)
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Second weekend
VCU's ability to defend in the half court is the most telltale sign the Rams could be ready to take their success a step further. That type of defense didn't exist under Coach Smart, and there were open shots to be had once opponents broke through the first wave of "Havoc." The Rams' depth, sheer athleticism and ability to force turnovers could be a lethal cocktail on opening weekend, one that's good enough to take them all the way to the Sweet 16.
Worst-case scenario: One-and-done
There's simply just too much talent for VCU to go down in its opening game. At least that was the thought before Evans got hurt. The Rams didn't drop a regular-season contest after late January, and you can point to their defensive efficiency as the reason why. Their first two opponents will likely be the toughest they've seen since nonconference play, meaning someone will be able to handle their pressure and neutralize Evans & Co. on offense. When that happens, the Rams will be heading back to Richmond.