Craig Smith was not supposed to have this kind of debut season coaching the Utah State Aggies. No one is. When Smith jumped from South Dakota to Logan he inherited a program that hadn't been to the NCAA tournament since 2011 and didn't appear to be a threat to get back this season. Much of the same team that went 17-17 a year ago was back and the Aggies were picked to finish ninth in the Mountain West Conference. Smith proceeded to top all first-year coaches nationally in wins and winning percentage on his way to MWC Coach of the Year. Can that magic touch possibly continue in March?
ESPN+ has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: vs. St. Mary's, Nevada
Worst losses: Fresno State, at San Diego State
Regular season conference finish: Tied 1st, MWC
Polls and metrics: The NET rankings have Utah State at 30 as of March 15th and Kenpom places the Aggies at 33. BPI does not rate them as highly at 44.
All-time tourney record: 6-22
Coach (tourney record): Craig Smith (0-0)
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 15.)
Starting lineup
C Neemias Queta (11.7 PPG, 8.9 RPG)
F Quinn Taylor (8.2 PPG, 6.2 RPG)
G Brock Miller (8.0 PPG, 1.6 RPG)
G Abel Porter (5.2 PPG, 2.7 APG)
G Sam Merrill (21.1 PPG, 4.3 APG)
Key bench players
G Diogo Brito (8.4 PPG, 4.3 RPG)
G/F Dwayne Brown, Jr. (6.5 PPG, 2.6 RPG)
F Justin Bean (4.1 PPG, 3.8 RPG)
Biggest strength: The most improved part in this year's team is the defense, specifically the Aggies' ability to limit easy shots. They are fourth in the country in 2-point field goal percentage defense and lead the nation in defensive rebound percentage. The Aggies don't ball hawk or create mistakes. They will also give up 3-pointers, but solid play inside the arc helps prevent big runs, keeping Utah State in the game.
Biggest weakness: Turnovers. The Aggies can be susceptible to athletic defenses that like to press or play pressure defense. San Diego State and New Mexico gave them trouble in the MWC and they turned the ball over 37 times in losses to Arizona State and Houston. On the other end, Utah State's success on defense does not include forcing turnovers. The Aggies are 255th in the country in defensive turnover percentage.
Best player: Merrill was a good player as a sophomore. He became a catalyst this season and the MWC Player of the Year. Not only is the 6-5 junior Utah State's best scorer and shooter (39.0 3-point percentage), he also leads the team in assists, takes on the top perimeter defensive assignment and is internally regarded as the club's hardest worker. It does start with his offense though, where an additional 10 pounds of muscle have made ability to finish at the rim as effective as his already deep shooting range.
X factor: Queta. The biggest difference in Utah State is its defense, and the biggest difference in the Aggies' defense is Queta. His ability to protect the rim is the foundation of their success. He led the MWC in blocks and was the league's Defensive and Freshman of the Year. A native of Portugal, the 6-11 Queta also emerged as an efficient finisher on offense, making 62.8 percent of his field goal attempts.
SCOUTING REPORT
How they beat you: When the offense is working at its highest level the Aggies space the floor and move the ball with rhythm. They are a very unselfish group and assist on more than 62 percent of their field goals. They are at their best when Merrill is the centerpiece, but the ball possession and shot distribution includes everyone. On defense, Brito is the smallest regular at 6-3. That length is what helps Utah State prevent easy buckets that are harder to come by in March anyway.
How you beat them: Nevada and San Diego State had success against Utah State in the regular season, being content to let Merrill get his shots and limiting the open looks of every other Aggie on the floor. Merrill had 35 points against the Aztecs and no one else had more than eight in a five-point loss. On any given night Miller or Taylor could provide a lift, but Utah State does not have a consistent second scorer.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 10.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 32nd (113.3)
Defensive efficiency, 46th (96.7)
3-point percentage, 97th (36.0)
3-point percentage D, 223rd (35.2)
Free throw rate, 79th (36.4)
Free throw rate D, 225th (34.6)
TO percentage, 129th (17.8)
TO percentage D, 255th (17.3)
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Second weekend
The ingredients are there for a small run -- a star go-to scorer, a stingy defense, a rim protector and the confidence that comes from an unexpected season. If they take care of the ball and Merrill can score with efficiency winning two games is in the cards. The Aggies might lack the scoring depth to go beyond that, but a Sweet Sixteen would be a brilliant capper to a season no one saw coming.
Worst-case scenario: One-and-done
It's hard to envision a scenario in which the Aggies get blown out. They are just too solid, but winning even one game is far from a given. Utah State trailed New Mexico into the second half in the MWC tournament quarterfinals because they struggled with the Lobos' press -- only to be saved by rebounding and free throw shooting. That kind of recovery won't be as likely in the tournament.