The UCF Knights are fresh off a 20-plus-win season for the second time in the past three and are back in the Big Dance for the first time since 2005. Johnny Dawkins' squad presents one of the most intriguing matchups in the country with 7-foot-6 skyscraper Tacko Fall patrolling the middle. Can Fall and the Knights take the banner season a step further and craft the school's first ever tournament victory?
ESPN+ has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: Northern Kentucky, Alabama, Temple, at Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati
Worst losses: Florida Atlantic, at Wichita State
Regular-season conference finish: T-third, American
Polls and metrics: BPI ranked the Knights at No. 36 as of March 10, while KenPom had them a spot lower at No. 37. The NCAA's new NET ranking had UCF at No. 28 in its most recent release.
All-time tourney record: 0-4
Coach (tourney record): Johnny Dawkins (2-1)
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 10.)
Starting lineup
C Tacko Fall (10.9 PPG, 2.4 BPG)
F Collin Smith (8.3 PPG, 5.3 RPG)
G B.J. Taylor (16.2 PPG, 3.3 APG)
G Aubrey Dawkins (15.4 PPG, 5.1 RPG)
G Terrell Allen (6.9 PPG, 4.3 APG)
Key bench players
F Chad Brown (4.7 PPG, 5.3 RPG)
G Frank Bertz (3.0 PPG, 1.4 RPG)
G Ceasar DeJesus (3.5 PPG, 1.0 RPG)
Biggest strength: The Knights boast one of the longest and most defense-oriented teams in the nation. UCF ranks among the top 40 in the country in defensive efficiency. Fall's presence in the lane makes opponents question almost every shot decision they make, leading to lots of long and empty possessions. Trying to figure out how to score on the Knights leaves opposing teams worn down at the other end and as a result the defense often fuels UCF's offense with plenty of points off of turnovers.
Biggest weakness: Free throw shooting. Interestingly enough, UCF is in the top 25 of teams most reliant on the charity stripe, but it is also one of its worst at converting. The Knights get to the line at the second-highest rate but shoot just 64.7 percent as a team, among the bottom 25 in Division I. Don't be surprised if missed opportunities here are the difference between an early-round win or a premature exit.
Best player: Taylor. The program's first All-AAC first-team selection, Taylor has all the shots in his arsenal. He can get to the lane, knocks down the 3 at a high percentage, and knows how to get to the line. Even when he's struggling, the American preseason player of the year is capable of coming alive at any moment, making him a perfect fit for a first appearance in the Big Dance in his final go-round.
X factor: Fall. Having college basketball's tallest player in your starting lineup changes everything. The rim protector alters shot selection and decisions simply with his very existence in the lane. On offense, it's toss it up and let him go get it, often for a flat-footed dunk. His minutes are limited and Fall can often end up in foul trouble, but if the Knights capitalize when he's in the game, they're capable of moving on to the next round.
SCOUTING REPORT
How they beat you: The Knights are patient and deliberate at both ends of the floor. They grind teams on D with their length, force them to take bad shots late in the clock and simply psyche them out with Fall looming in the lane. Taylor, Aubrey Dawkins and Drexel transfer Allen combine to form one of the best backcourts you've probably never heard of.
How you beat them: Find a way to get to 70 points and try to dictate the tempo. The Knights don't do well playing from behind because their style of play is predicated on going so slowly. UCF is also a good, not great, shooting team, and its perimeter options are limited after Taylor and Dawkins. If the Knights are down and one or both of those two has an off night, a comeback might not be in the cards.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of KenPom.com and are accurate through games of March 10.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 48th (111.2)
Defensive efficiency, 36th (95.3)
3-point percentage, 106th (35.6)
3-point percentage D, 33rd (31.4)
Free throw rate, second (46.8)
Free throw rate D, 70th (28.9)
TO percentage, 94th (17.4)
TO percentage D, 188th (18.2)
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Sweet 16
Few teams in D-I have the size and unique profile the Knights have on display. One of the hardest aspects of scouting UCF is first figuring out how to solve Fall while trying to account for everyone else. If Johnny Dawkins' guys can continue to defend like they have the majority of the season and knock down their free throws, there's no reason they can't win a couple of games.
Worst-case scenario: One and done
Aubrey Dawkins is the only player on UCF's roster who has won a tournament game. The Knights boast one of the most experienced teams in the country, but winning in March (especially in the Big Dance) is a learned behavior. The moment and the big stage in these players' first trip might be too big for them. And if that's the case, they will head home early.