Anybody who thought last year's Texas Tech run to the Elite Eight was just a Zhaire Smith thing and a one-year burst of good fortune had to be surprised throughout this season, as head coach Chris Beard and the Red Raiders rode to the top of the Big 12 and enter the tournament as one of the scarier teams in the country. The Red Raiders are doing it with a nasty defense that tops the nation in efficiency and is so good against the 3-pointer that some opponents shouldn't even attempt long-range shots.
Even more impressive is the fact that Tech plays some pretty productive offense, too, with Jarrett Culver auditioning as a potential NBA lottery pick who can score a lot of ways. Will this production translate to tournament wins?
ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel, and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: Kansas State, Kansas
Worst loss: at Baylor, vs. West Virginia (Big 12 tourney)
Regular-season conference finish: T-1st Big 12
Polls and metrics: The BPI and KenPom are of the same mind on the Red Raiders, ranking them eighth.
All-time tourney record: 8-16
Coach's tourney record: Chris Beard, 4-2
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 4.)
STARTING LINEUP
G Jarrett Culver (18.3 PPG, 6.2 RPG)
G Davide Moretti (11.6 PPG, 1.9 RPG)
G Matt Mooney (10.9 PPG, 3.2 RPG)
F Tariq Owens (8.6 PPG, 5.7 RPG)
C Norense Odiase (4.1 PPG, 5.3 RPG)
Key bench players
G Brandone Francis (6.3 PPG, 2.4 RPG)
G Kyler Edwards (5.5 PPG, 2.3 RPG)
F Deshawn Corprew (5.8 PPG, 3.7 RPG)
Biggest strength: Defense. Defense. More defense. Get the picture? These guys make the old Cold Warriors look like they didn't care a lick about deterring the Soviets. The Red Raiders play a nasty man-to-man scheme, double-team ball handlers off the pick-and-roll and attack 3-point shooters. Tech forces a bunch of turnovers, has a big-time shot-blocker in Owens and is able to turn opponents' gaffes into easy points. The national standard for tough D lately has been Virginia, but the Raiders are trying hard to change that -- and in many ways are succeeding.
Biggest weakness: You don't win nearly 30 games with glaring problems, but if the Raiders have a weakness, it's on the boards. They surrender too many offensive rebounds -- nearly 10 per game -- and have an overall margin that sits below plus-three. Culver, a 6-foot-6 wing, is their top man on the glass. This isn't a glaring stain on the résumé, but a team with a strong commitment to hitting the boards could mitigate the Tech defensive advantage a bit.
Best player: Hands down, it's Culver, who gets ample opportunity to show his versatile offensive game. Although his 3-point shooting is not impressive this season (33.9%), he converted 38.2 percent last year. He has an excellent pull-up jumper and can take people off the dribble whenever he gets a sliver of daylight. Culver finishes extremely well through contact, which produces conventional 3-point plays, and he can thrive in the post, thanks to a variety of spins and turnaround moves. He's a willing, successful passer and is able to create transition opportunities with his steals.
X factor: Owens isn't going to get too many headlines, but the 6-foot-10 senior is a big part of the Raiders' success. He's one of the nation's most efficient shot-blockers, and his interior presence allows Tech defenders to be extremely aggressive on the perimeter. Owens is a solid rebounder, particularly on the offensive glass, and can score efficiently close to the bucket. He's also the second-best free throw shooter on the team, which means a lot because Beard can keep him in tight games late to use his defense without worrying about him launching anvils from the line.
SCOUTING REPORT
How they beat you: It should be pretty obvious by now. Tech wants to constrict opposing half-court sets and force opponents to cough up the ball or take hurried shots late in the clock. The Red Raider defenders help intelligently when opponents go off the dribble and are able to create havoc on the perimeter by disrupting pick-and-roll schemes. When it has the ball, Texas Tech relies heavily on Culver to create opportunities for himself and teammates by either beating his defender one-on-one or dishing the ball when double-teams arrive.
How you beat them: Any offensive impatience against this team will result in disaster, so teams must run their sets efficiently and not panic as the shot clock fades toward zero. When the Red Raiders double-team ball handlers in pick-and-roll situations, the other part of the tandem must be ready to accept the ball and either shoot or attack the basket. Defensively, it begins with slowing Culver down. It's important to double-team him often, but defensive rotations must be sound because he is a good passer, and several Tech players can shoot from behind the arc. Since Texas Tech isn't a dynamic rebounding team, it's important to hit the glass hard at both ends to create follow-up attempts and frustrate the Red Raider attack.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 4.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 34th (113.0)
Defensive efficiency, 1st (85.3)
3-point percentage, 58th (36.9)
3-point percentage D, 13th (29.9)
Free throw rate, 173rd (33.6)
Free throw rate D, 286th (37.8)
TO percentage, 144th (18.1)
TO percentage D, 14th (23.0)
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Final Four
Last year, the Red Raiders came within a game of the Final Four but had the misfortune of running into an incandescent Villanova team. There is real potential for them to get beyond the second weekend this year. If Tech shoots the ball well enough and can provide Culver with offensive support, it has the nasty defense to travel all the way to Minneapolis.
Worst-case scenario: Second-round loss
A disciplined, athletic team with multiple ball handlers isn't cowed by the Tech defense and executes its offensive ruthlessly -- like UMBC did last year against Virginia. Meanwhile, a series of double teams and junk schemes frustrate Culver and paralyze the Red Raider attack, leading to a first-weekend exit.