The Tennessee Volunteers wrapped the regular season with the highest winning percentage in school history, and though coach Rick Barnes' crew fell shy of first place in the SEC, there's still hope in Knoxville that a veteran cast can lead the program to its first Final Four. The Vols started the season No. 6 in the AP poll, ascended to No. 1 for four weeks and ultimately remained in the top 10 each week. Do the Vols have what it takes to validate their regular season success in March?
ESPN+ has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: vs. Gonzaga, vs. Louisville, vs. Kentucky, vs. Mississippi State
Worst losses: vs. Kansas
Regular-season conference finish: Tied 2nd, SEC
Polls and metrics: BPI ranked the Volunteers No. 6 as of March 12th while KenPom put coach Rick Barnes' squad in the No. 7 slot. The NCAA's new NET ranking had Tennessee at No. 6 in its most recent release.
All-time tourney record: 20-22
Coach (tourney record): Rick Barnes (22-23)
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 12.)
Starting lineup
F Grant Williams (19.3 PPG, 7.7 RPG)
F Admiral Schofield (16.3 PPG, 6.3 RPG)
F Kyle Alexander (7.5 PPG, 6.6 RPG)
G Jordan Bone (13.4 PPG, 3.2 RPG)
G Lamonte Turner (10.4 PPG, 2.7 RPG)
Key bench players
F John Fulkerson (3.3 PPG, 2.7 RPG)
F Yves Pons (2.7 PPG, 2.1 RPG)
G/F Jordan Bowden (10.5 PPG, 3.4 RPG)
Biggest strength: Tennessee has a balanced, elite offense and Barnes' squad doesn't subscribe to the analytics model of taking only 3-pointers and shots around the rim. Rather, the Vols thrive in the midrange, hitting 47 percent there. They avoid turnovers and convert at the free throw line (76.8 percent) and generate only one-fourth of their 82.9 points per game beyond the arc.
Biggest weakness: Ending opponent's possessions. Tennessee is subpar in defensive rebounding percentage (70.2) and forces turnovers on only 18.6 percent of opponent's possessions, matching the national average. In all four losses, opponents held the edge in total field goal attempts.
Best player: Williams is the SEC Player of the Year, using nifty moves and his savvy to offset his size disadvantage. He scores most of his points inside 15 feet, shooting 64 percent at the rim. The 6-foot-7 junior also has a knack for drawing fouls (7.2 per 40 minutes) and capitalizes on those opportunities, hitting 83 percent of his 232 free throw attempts in the regular season.
X factor: Turner. The Vols' junior shooting guard finished the regular season mired in a slump, making only 6-of-42 3-pointer over the final seven games. He's certainly capable of getting hot, draining at least three triples in eight games this season, including victories over Louisville and Florida. It's going to be tough for Tennessee to advance deep without at least one reliable 3-point threat to pull defenders away from the paint.
SCOUTING REPORT
How they beat you: Excellent ballhandling and sharp shooting. Although the Vols' approach is quirky, the results are solid. Not only is Tennessee among the nation's leaders at making 2-point shots, it's also one of the best at defending them, holding opponents to 43.9 percent inside the arc (10th in nation). Schofield has a green light and a soft touch, hitting 51 percent of 2s and 41 percent of 3s. When he and Williams start cooking together, the Vols pose a matchup disaster.
How you beat them: Make the Vols a 3-point happy shooting squad. In 27 regular-season victories, Tennessee averaged 18 3-point attempts. In four losses, it averaged 25.5 attempts. The Vols are better when judicious with their long-range jumpers. Kentucky, Auburn and Kansas blitzed UT's typically rock-solid interior defense.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 12.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 3rd (122.1)
Defensive efficiency, 28th (94.3)
3-point percentage, 131st (35.2)
3-point percentage D, 151st (34.0)
Free throw rate, 169th (33.7)
Free throw rate D, 225th (34.6)
TO percentage, 25th (15.9)
TO percentage D, 171st (18.6)
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Final Four
Tennessee played this season motivated by an upset loss to Loyola-Chicago in the second round of last year's NCAA tournament. Its experience should pay dividends this March as this is a tested and grizzled group of Vols who have taken the program from the SEC gutter to unprecedented national heights. Maneuvering through the rugged SEC and emerging with the most efficient offense and second-best defense reveals the Vols have what's required to advance deep in this tournament.
Worst-case scenario: First weekend repeat
Tennessee's lack of depth is exposed. Schofield needs 20 shots or more to score 20 points. Bone and Bowden can't find the long range touch, either. A taller, stronger opponent shuts down the lane, avoids fouling and forces the Vols to shoot tough contested jumpers. If the shots aren't falling, can the Vols manufacture enough points to escape with a victory?