The St. John's Red Storm are returning to the NCAA tournament for the first time with program legend Chris Mullin on the sideline, in his fourth season as head coach. St. John's hasn't won a game in the Big Dance in almost two decades, dating to 2000. Mullin brings a hard-nosed, New York-tough team led by electrifying scorer Shamorie Ponds. Is this the team that can end the program's streak of March disappointments?
ESPN+ has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel, and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: at Rutgers, vs. VCU, vs. Marquette, at Georgetown, at Creighton, at Marquette, vs. Villanova
Worst losses: vs. DePaul, at DePaul, vs Providence, vs. Georgetown
Regular-season conference finish: 7th, Big East
Polls and metrics: BPI tabs the Red Storm as the 59th-best team, with NET and KenPom a bit more pessimistic, placing the Red Storm 66th and 75th, respectively.
All-time tourney record: 27-31 (two Final Fours)
Coach (tourney record): Chris Mullin (first appearance)
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 12.)
Starting lineup
F Marvin Clark (11.2 PPG, 5.5 BPG)
G LJ Figueroa (14.6 PPG, 6.3 RPG)
G Mustapha Heron (15.0 PPG, 4.7 RPG)
G Justin Simon (10.0 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 3.2 APG)
G Shamorie Ponds (19.8 PPG, 5.2 APG, 4.3 RPG)
Key bench players
G Bryan Trimble Jr. (2.5 PPG, 1. 4 APG)
F Sedee Keita (2.3 PPG, 1.8 RPG)
G Greg Williams Jr. (2.0 PPG, 0.9 RPG)
Biggest strength: Chris Mullin taught his team the value of possessing the basketball, and the Red Storm have responded by being one of the best ball-control teams in the nation. St. John's turned the ball over more than its opponent in just three of its 31 regular-season games. Offensively, the Red Storm coughed up the ball on just 13.9 percent of possessions in Big East play, best in the conference. Defensively, they are aggressive against opposing dribblers and in passing lanes, grabbing the most steals in the Big East. Those extra possessions created on both ends of the floor pay major dividends for St. John's.
Biggest weakness: Without the size to battle other Big East teams in the paint, St. John's gets clobbered on the glass. The Red Storm grab the fewest offensive rebounds in the conference while allowing their opponents to snag the highest rate of their own misses. Their struggles on the defensive glass have been glaring, allowing opponents tons of extra looks at the bucket and leading St. John's players to rack up fouls trying to prevent putbacks.
Best player: Ponds is one of the best shot-makers in college basketball. He isn't a knockdown shooter, but he has a knack for making tough buckets at the rim or with a hand in his face. Ponds has been more efficient this season, mostly due to improved shot selection. The junior guard is attempting fewer field goals this season, but they have been better looks at the basket, leading to increases in his true shooting and 3-point shooting percentages from last season.
X factor: Figueroa has transitioned from junior college to Division I play exceptionally well, giving Mullin a valuable glue guy. Despite being listed as a 6-foot-6 guard, Figueroa leads the Red Storm in rebounding this season. He contributes nearly 15 points per game, 1.9 steals per night and solid defense against a variety of opponents. Due to the Red Storm's size and depth issues, Figueroa has been asked to battle on the perimeter and in the paint for 32 minutes per game, and he has answered the call.
SCOUTING REPORT
How they beat you: St. John's wants to spread the floor and use its speed to attack the rim. With four guards on the floor at nearly all times, the Red Storm are able to exploit mismatches on the perimeter. Ponds and other playmakers drag bigger opponents away from the paint and beat them off the dribble, looking to finish at the rim or kick the ball out for a jump shot. Defensively, perimeter pressure leads to steals, which gets them out and running.
How you beat them: The St. John's roster has two major issues: a lack of height and very little depth. Mullin plays all five of his starters for more than 30 minutes per game, and no St. John's bench player contributes more than three points per contest. This asks a lot of the starting five, especially when they are undersized in every game. Teams have beaten the Red Storm with body blows, pounding the ball into the paint all night long.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 12.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 54th (110.7)
Defensive efficiency, 112nd (101.1)
3-point percentage, 36.8 (39.6)
3-point percentage D, 157th (34.0)
Free throw rate, 267th (29.7)
Free throw rate D, 308th (39.1)
TO percentage, 7th (14.3)
TO percentage D, 43rd (21.2)
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Survive and advance
St. John's likely doesn't have the size or the depth to compete beyond the first round of tournament play, yet the Red Storm have the attitude and aggressiveness to win in the round of 64. With Ponds at the helm, St. John's can get hot and go on a scoring run. A little momentum can help this team feed off its own energy and make up for its shortcomings.
Worst-case scenario: One and done
St. John's is the kind of matchup that a lot of teams would welcome as a first-round opponent. Tournament wins are built in the paint, where the Red Storm have struggled this season. Without a reliable bench presence, foul trouble or an injury could be a death sentence for this team's tournament hopes, extending the school's streak without a win in the Big Dance.