The Saint Mary's Gaels finished off one of college basketball's Goliath's earlier this month, topping longtime rival Gonzaga for the West Coast Conference tournament championship -- earning the Gaels an automatic bid to the Big Dance and their fifth trip to the postseason in the past decade. In three of Saint Mary's past four NCAA tournament appearances, the Gaels have advanced at least one round. Can Coach Randy Bennett and sensational scorer Jordan Ford carry the momentum from their big win into a Cinderella run?
ESPN+ has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: vs. Gonzaga, at New Mexico State, at San Diego
Worst losses: at Pepperdine, vs. Harvard, vs. UC Irvine, at Western Kentucky
Regular season conference finish: 2nd, West Coast Conference
Polls and metrics: The Gales ranked No. 35 in BPI, 29th in KenPom, and 34th in NET after their upset of Gonzaga.
All-time tourney record: 5-9 (0 Final Fours)
Coach (tourney record): Randy Bennett (4-6)
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 13.)
Starting lineup
C Jordan Hunter (7.9 PPG, 6.8 RPG)
F Malik Fitts (15.3 PPG, 7.6 RPG)
F Tanner Krebs (8.9 PPG, 3.7 RPG)
G Tommy Kuhse (6.2 PPG, 2.9 A PG)
G Jordan Ford (21.3 PPG, 2.5 APG)
Key bench players
G Elijah Thomas (4.3 PPG, 1.9 RPG)
F Matthias Tass (3.5 PPG, 3.1 RPG)
F Dan Fotu (2.9 PPG, 2.6 RPG)
Biggest strength: Virginia gets all the attention for being the slowest and most methodical team in the nation year after year, but Randy Bennett's teams are never far behind. The Gaels played at the seventh-slowest tempo in college basketball season, averaging under 63 total possessions. Saint Mary's controls the game by forcing teams to play at an unusual pace, where the Gaels are in their comfort zone. Not only will Saint Mary's use all 30 seconds of the shot clock, but the Gaels also led the WCC in offensive rebound rate, meaning they often reset the shot clock and wind it down a second time.
Biggest weakness: For a team that plays so slowly, Saint Mary's plays with an incredible lack of generosity. The Gales posted the lowest assist rate of any of the 353 teams in Division I. Saint Mary's averages under 11 assists, which is indicative of the offense the Gaels have run this season. At times, the ball can be trapped on one side of the floor, either in the hands of Ford or on the block with Hunter. When the ball gets stuck, so does the Gaels' offense.
Best player: Ford is one of the best scorers Bennett has ever coached. He's a capable ball handler and creator in the point guard role, but has shined playing off the ball. Ford is a strong shooter, making 42 percent of his 3-pointers, but also slices into the paint and draws fouls. He's averaging nearly six attempts from the free throw line and makes 80 percent from the stripe. Few players have been as indispensable for their team as Ford has been for the Gaels. In 12 games this season, Ford has played every minute, including all 45 minutes in an overtime loss to Pepperdine.
X factor: Kuhse is not a flashy player in any way and he hasn't posted eye-popping numbers. He averages just 6.2 points and 2.6 assists, yet has been a crucial member of the Saint Mary's backcourt. Bennett made a move to increase Kuhse's role late in the season. In the Gaels first 22 games, Kuhse averaged just 4.6 points in 22 minutes, shooting 24 percent from beyond the arc. Since the start of February, Kuhse has played more than 35 minutes per game, scored 9.3 points per game and shot 39 percent from long range. In those 11 games with Kuhse supporting Ford in the backcourt, the Gaels are 9-2, with both losses coming at the hands of Gonzaga.
SCOUTING REPORT
How they beat you: Saint Mary's looks to slow the game to a glacial pace, making each possession more important. Speeding up the Gaels is difficult, thanks to Bennett's decision to play Ford and Kuhse together for long stretches. Both are effectively point guards, able to break pressure, initiate offense, and handle the ball at Saint Mary's preferred tempo. On both ends of the floor, the Gaels rebound the basketball exceptionally well, helping to control the pace.
How you beat them: Making Saint Mary's play faster is easier said than done, but it can pay off in a variety of ways. Obviously it takes the Gaels out of their comfort zone, but it also tests the depth of Bennett's bench. He has no issue playing his starters in excess of 30 minutes, testing their durability against a team willing to push the ball in transition and attack the paint. Later in games, teams can exploit the Gaels' lack of depth. In Pepperdine's upset of Saint Mary's, the Waves scored 52 points in the second half and overtime.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 13.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 23rd (114.9)
Defensive efficiency, 55th (97.3)
3-point percentage, 33rd (37.8)
3-point percentage D, 45th (31.8)
Free throw rate, 276th (29.7)
Free throw rate D, 80th (29.4)
TO percentage, 41st (16.3)
TO percentage D, 303rd (16.3)
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: A first-round win.
If you're looking for a blueprint for a Saint Mary's upset, you don't need to look far. The Gaels enforced their will upon Gonzaga in the WCC championship and made one of the best teams in the nation look pedestrian. If Saint Mary's can dominate the pace and style of their first-round game in the same way, the Gaels will at least be competitive with a chance to win the game late in the second half.
Worst-case scenario: A quick exit.
There's a reason Saint Mary's needed to win the WCC's automatic bid to earn its spot in the NCAA tournament. Without the championship win over Gonzaga, the Gaels' résumé probably would have come up short. Saint Mary's has been up and down this season, struggling to put everything together at times. When they click, the way they did in the conference tournament, the Gaels are a tough team to beat. If Saint Mary's is out of sync, it could spell an early end to the tournament.