Following an eight-point loss to Notre Dame in the aptly named Crossroads Classic in December, the Purdue Boilermakers sat at a crossroads with a 6-5 record. With four new starters, they looked, frankly, like an NIT team at best. But Matt Painter's club somehow righted the ship. Led by one of the nation's most prolific scorers, junior guard Carsen Edwards, the Boilermakers built one of the country's most efficient offenses and were the Big Ten's surprise team in 2019 -- sharing the Big Ten regular-season crown with Michigan State. With the Big Dance about to tip off, Purdue probably will be overlooked yet again. Can Painter's squad continue its surprising success with a deep NCAA tourney run?
ESPN+ has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: vs. Maryland, vs. Iowa, vs. Michigan State
Worst losses: Notre Dame, at Minnesota
Regular-season conference finish: Tied 1st, Big Ten
Polls and metrics: A top-15 fixture in the coaches' poll, the Boilermakers are No. 12 in the NET rankings.
All-time tourney record: 39-30, two Final Fours
Coach (tourney record): Matt Painter (13-11)
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 12.)
Starting lineup
C Matt Haarms (8.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG)
F Grady Eifert (5.7 PPG, 5.2 RPG)
G Nojel Eastern (7.6 PPG, 5.7 APG)
G Ryan Cline (11.8 PPG, 3.2 APG)
G Carsen Edwards (23.4 PPG, 3.0 APG)
Key bench players
F Aaron Wheeler (4.5 PPG, 3.1 RPG)
F Evan Boudreaux (5.4 PPG, 3.2 RPG)
F Trevion Williams (5.4 PPG, 3.8 RPG)
Biggest strength: The Boilermakers have a megawatt star in Edwards and have the fifth-most efficient offense in the land, a unit that produces 121.3 points per 100 possessions. Heading into this past weekend's Big Ten tourney, the Boilermakers were shooting 44.7 percent from the field, taking good care of the ball (just 10.7 turnovers per game), and led the Big Ten with 305 successful 3-balls.
Biggest weakness: Painter's squad essentially starts four guards and the 7-foot-3 Amsterdam import Haarms, whose perfectly coiffed hair inspired its own Twitter account (@MattHaarmsHair). So the Boilers are susceptible to getting bullied on the backboards from time to time.
Best player: Purdue pulled off the rare feat of having a highly efficient offense despite the presence of a high-volume shooter in Edwards, the 2019 Big Ten scoring champ (23.8 PPG). Edwards has anywhere-in-the-gym range on his jumper and isn't bashful about pulling the trigger (he attempted a Big Ten-high 595 shots during the regular season). Edwards has a gift for creating space as he comes off a screen and is nearly impossible to stop off the bounce.
X factor: Sophomore guard Eastern is Painter's underrated chess piece. Blessed with terrific size for a point guard (6-6, 220), Eastern lacks a reliable jumper, but can score on most opposing guards on straight-line drives and post-ups. His size also allows him to see over most opponents and find one of Purdue's many knockdown shooters. But his forte is defense. He always covers the opponent's top perimeter scoring ace and often makes life difficult for them.
SCOUTING REPORT
How they beat you: The Boilermakers' recipe for success is threefold: the trusty 3-point aim of Edwards and Cline, the nightly commitment to playing hard and sticking to their clearly defined roles, and the deft coaching of Painter. The Boilermakers take excellent care of the ball and win more than their fair share of the effort plays that ultimately tilt games in a team's favor. One example of this is that Purdue finished 18th nationally with an offensive rebound percentage of 35 percent, and those second chances often result in easy putbacks.
How you beat them: Edwards is going to score, so shutting down his supporting cast is paramount, whether that's the shooting of Cline, the dribble-drives of Eastern, the low-post scoring of Haarms and Williams, or the glue-guy plays of Eifert and Boudreaux.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 12.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 5th (121.3)
Defensive efficiency, 29th (94.6)
3-point percentage, 65th (36.7)
3-point percentage D, 177th (34.3)
Free throw rate, 272nd (29.9)
Free throw rate D, 169th (32.5)
TO percentage, 25th (16.0)
TO percentage D, 109th (19.6)
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Elite 8
A Sweet 16 team a year ago, the Boilermakers have the horses to go one step further in 2019. This team can effectively score from all three levels -- in the paint, in the midrange, and from beyond the 3-point arc -- and therefore won't be an easy out.
Worst-case scenario: Round of 32 loss
Teams that live by the 3-ball sometimes write their obituary sooner than they'd like when the long-distance shots aren't dropping. But given the Big Ten co-champs' favorable seed, it's highly probable that Painter's squad advances at least one round in Bracketville.