Oregon Ducks head coach Dana Altman has been to a Final Four, nearly made another, and is likely headed to the Hall of Fame for his outstanding 30-year career. But this may have been his best coaching season to date. Injuries -- none more devastating than losing star freshman Bol Bol after just nine games -- derailed what was a top-20 team to start the season. As of late February the Ducks were still trying to find their footing. Then Altman's reworked plan kicked in. Oregon won its last four regular-season games by an average margin of nearly 18 points and then made a four-game run through the Pac-12 tournament, at times looking dominant. Momentum is certainly with the Ducks, but can they turn that into a significant showing in the NCAA tournament?
ESPN+ has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: vs. Syracuse, Arizona State, at Washington, vs. Arizona State, vs. Washington
Worst losses: Texas Southern, UCLA, at USC, at UCLA
Regular season conference finish: tied for fourth, Pac-12
Polls and metrics: BPI ranked the Ducks at No. 38 at season's end, while KenPom had them a 43. The NCAA's new NET ranking didn't view Oregon as favorably at 56.
All-time tourney record: 23-14 (2 Final Fours, 1 National Championship)
Coach (tourney record): Dana Altman (13-13, 1 Final Four)
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 16.)
Starting lineup
F Kenny Wooten (6.2 PPG, 2.0 BPG)
F Francis Okoro (3.1 PPG, 3.4 RPG)
F Paul White (10.6 PPG, 3.9 RPG)
F Louis King (13.1 PPG, 5.7 RPG)
G Payton Pritchard (12.7 PPG, 4.5 APG)
Key bench players
G Ehab Amin (3.7 PPG, 2.5 APG)
F Victor Bailey, Jr. (7.7 PPG, 40.2 3PT%)
F Will Richardson (6.2 PPG, 2.5 APG)
Biggest strength: With four starters at 6-foot-9, the Ducks are long, and that has manifested itself into a stingy defense late in the year. It took nearly an entire season for the intensity to completely meet the talent, but only Arizona State in the Pac-12 semifinals scored more than 61 points against Oregon in the final eight games. Disrupting passing lanes and protecting the rim are Oregon's most significant skill sets right now, and Wooten, when ignited, can be a force. The Ducks rank 12th in block percentage, 20th in steal percentage and are 18th in overall defensive efficiency.
Biggest weakness: The offense remains erratic. The Ducks lack a go-to scorer, make unforced turnovers and have stretches where they settle for late-in-the-shot-clock jump shots. They rank in the bottom third of the country in free throw rate. King and White are the keys. When they score and do it efficiently, Oregon looks like a different team. However, their shot selection has been inconsistent all season, and both have field goal percentages below 45 percent.
Best player: Pritchard isn't the team's leading scorer or best shooter. He's not Oregon's best defender either. The junior point guard is, however, the most integral piece of the roster. Pritchard creates the Ducks' energy. When he is forcing the ball up the floor, getting into the lane, and creating mismatches with penetration Oregon looks like a different team. He can be exceptional off the high ball screen, and his ability to turn the corner off the dribble is as good as any guard in the country.
X factor: Wooten. The 6-9 sophomore has a tendency to fade in and out with his focus, but when he is fully engaged, he is a skilled, shot-blocking menace. Wooten ranks 12th nationally in block percentage and changes games. Washington scored just two points in the first 10 minutes of the second half in the Pac-12 championship game. Wooten's refusal to allow anything easy at the rim was the biggest reason why.
SCOUTING REPORT
How they beat you: Altman has preached to his team down the stretch that it needs to be the offensive aggressor in order to win. Pritchard's ability to control tempo even if it's not in the transition game is a key. The Ducks need their offense to help the defense, which in addition to its prowess around the rim, also only allows 29.4 percent shooting on 3-point attempts, good for 10th in the country. Oregon is exceptional at taking away easy shots. Getting enough of its own is what Altman still wants to see more often.
How you beat them: Getting the ball out of Pritchard's hands is the first step to blunting the Ducks' ability to get those easy shots. He also has a tendency to over-dribble when his penetration is cut off. That starts the domino effect of too little player movement leading to poor shot selection. It has been Oregon's Achilles' heel and the major culprit in their 12 losses.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 16.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 108th (107.8)
Defensive efficiency, 18th (92.7)
3-point percentage, 171st (34.3)
3-point percentage D, 10th (29.4)
Free throw rate, 259th (30.3)
Free throw rate D, 241st (35.3)
TO percentage, 125th (17.8)
TO percentage D, 51st (20.9)
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Second weekend
A month ago any talk of Oregon reaching the Sweet 16 would have been nonsense, but the Ducks, even without Bol, finally look like the team they were supposed to be. Granted, winning the deflated Pac-12 tournament doesn't carry the same muscle as it normally does, but it came in such convincing fashion that Oregon has to be considered dangerous.
Worst-case scenario: One and done
Oregon could just as easily revert back to the team that less than a month ago lost three straight to Oregon State, USC and UCLA, scoring a mere 49 points in one and giving up 90 in another. It's that kind of inconsistent play that still has to make even Altman wonder what kind of team he is bringing into the NCAA tournament.