The Ole Miss Rebels have been one of the best stories of the 2018-19 college basketball season as Kermit Davis, in his first year as coach, has taken a team picked to finish 14th in the SEC and guided them back to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2015. For his efforts, Davis was named the SEC Coach of the Year. He added two key freshmen late, motivated the returnees and molded the Rebels into a fun, efficient squad. Do the Rebels have what it takes to advance in March?
ESPN+ has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: Baylor, Auburn (twice), at Mississippi State
Worst losses: at Butler, at South Carolina
Regular season conference finish: Tied 6th, SEC
Polls and metrics: BPI ranked the Rebels No. 46 as of March 13, while KenPom had them slightly better at No. 41. The NCAA's new NET ranking thought even more highly of Ole Miss, putting them No. 36 in its most recent release.
All-time tourney record: 5-8
Coach (tourney record): Kermit Davis (2-5)
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 13.)
Starting lineup
F Bruce Stevens (8.4 PPG, 4.5 RPG)
F Blake Hinson (8.1 PPG, 2.7 RPG)
G Breein Tyree (18.5 PPG, 3.0 APG)
G Terence Davis (15.5 PPG, 5.8 RPG)
G Devontae Shuler (10.1 PPG, 4.1 RPG)
Key bench players
F KJ Buffen (6.1 PPG, 4.4 RPG)
F Dominiki Olejniczak (5.4 PPG, 3.0 RPG)
G D.C. Davis (2.3 PPG, 1.5 RPG)
Biggest strength: Polished offense. The Rebels are dangerous throughout the lineup and on the court, with a high-scoring backcourt and a serviceable batch of forwards. Ole Miss shot 36.1 percent on 3-pointers, 52.8 percent on 2-pointers and 78.5 percent at the free throw line (fourth in the nation) in the regular season. They snared 31 percent of their missed shots and were wired to score in transition. With veterans in the backcourt, the Rebels are brimming with confidence they can score on any opponent.
Biggest weakness: Transition defense. The Rebels are one of the worst teams in the NCAA tournament field in matching up and stopping opponents on the fast break. They gave up 11 points per game in transition, which contributed to allowing a 50.8 effective field goal percentage. Defensive rebounding was a sore spot for Ole Miss early in the season, but Davis' unit made great strides there as the season unfolded.
Best player: Tyree. The senior point guard has been the centerpiece of the Rebels' season. He has hit 40 percent of 3-pointers and 54 percent of 2-pointers and used his speed and body control to draw contact, scoring four points per game at the free throw line while connecting at an 83 percent clip. Tyree is masterful in the pick-and-roll and dangerous in transition as part of an interchangeable trio in the Rebels' backcourt.
X factor: Shuler. While Tyree and backcourt mate Terence Davis are the focal point on the opposition's scouting report, Shuler is also dangerous, and when he's hot the Rebels offense reaches another level. Shuler connected on 40.5 percent from 3-point range on the season and scored in double figures in 11 SEC games. He also had six games this season of four points or less. The Rebels need him at his best and knocking down shots.
SCOUTING REPORT
How they beat you: When the Rebels are making shots, especially 3-pointers, and playing pesky defense that forces turnovers and creates easy baskets. Ole Miss made 8.2 3s per game on the season and was 18-4 in the regular season when hitting 33.3 percent or better from long range. On the defensive side, Davis is a master at switching defenses out of timeouts, mixing up man-to-man and zone to disrupt an opponent's flow. In the half-court, Ole Miss uses its quickness and versatility to handle teams in the pick-and-roll.
How you beat them: Interestingly enough, Ole Miss loves to shoot the 3-pointer but doesn't enjoy defending it. The Rebels' opponents swished 37.5 percent from beyond the arc and in each of their losses, it was easy to point a finger at poor perimeter defense. On more than one occasions in one of their narrow losses (5-4 in games decided by five points or less) an opposing shooter was left wide open at a pivotal point in a late possession. Teams also had success against Ole Miss by shutting down the complementary scorers and allowing Davis and Tyree to get their 35-40 points combined.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 10.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 28th (113.6)
Defensive efficiency, 76th (98.4)
3-point percentage, 92nd (36.1)
3-point percentage D, 321st (37.5)
Free throw rate, 200th (32.6)
Free throw rate D, 194th (33.3)
TO percentage, 159th (18.4)
TO percentage D, 51st (20.9)
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Second weekend
Ole Miss had a collection of solid wins in what turned out to be a difficult schedule (51st overall per KenPom). The Rebels won at Mississippi State and Auburn and narrowly missed home upsets of LSU, Kentucky and Tennessee. Those wins and narrow defeats should bode well for the team's confidence as it enters the bracket. Not that Terence Davis and Tyree are lacking confidence. Their court presence, scoring and leadership gave the Rebels the requisite swagger to turn a potentially bleak season into only the ninth NCAA tournament appearance in school history.
Worst-case scenario: One and done
Like many teams in modern college basketball, the Rebels have a split personality. When the 3-point shot is falling they look as if they could compete with or beat any team in the nation. And when the shots aren't falling? Well, they are quite ordinary. Combine a chilly shooting performance with a troublesome knack for turnovers (18.6 percent of possessions) and Ole Miss is certain to head for an early exit.