A year ago, the Old Dominion Monarchs were left on the outside looking in after a loss in the Conference USA semifinals. Jeff Jones' bunch made sure that didn't happen in 2019, avenging their defeat to Western Kentucky and locking down the Hilltoppers in the Conference USA title game for the auto bid and the program's first appearance in the NCAA tournament since 2011. The Monarchs have never been here under Jones, but now that they've made it, can they make some noise with an aggressive and opportunistic defense?
ESPN+ has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: vs. VCU, at Syracuse
Worst losses: at Saint Joseph's, Northern Iowa, at Florida Atlantic, at UTSA
Regular season conference finish: first, Conference USA
Polls and metrics: BPI ranked the Monarchs at 113th as of March 17, while KenPom had them slightly lower at No. 111. The NCAA's new NET ranking had Old Dominion at No. 100 in its most recent release.
All-time tourney record: 3-11
Coach (tourney record): Jeff Jones (6-7)
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 16.)
Starting lineup
C Elbert Robinson III (2.3 PPG, 2.1 RPG)
F Aaron Carver (2.4 PPG, 6.0 RPG)
G Xavier Green (9.7 PPG, 3.7 RPG)
G B.J. Stith (16.9 PPG, 7.4 RPG)
G Ahmad Caver (16.5 PPG, 5.6 APG)
Key bench players
G Jason Wade (3.8 PPG, 3.6 RPG)
F Dajour Dickens (3.3 PPG, 1.7 BPG)
F Kalu Ezikpe (4.0 PPG, 2.9 RPG)
Biggest strength: The Monarchs defend wire-to-wire, a staple under their veteran head coach. Old Dominion enters the tournament with one of the 50 most efficient defensive units in the country. Coach Jones' guys aim to cut off the lane, making points in the paint a difficult proposition. ODU also has three of the most physical guards in the country, led by C-USA all-defensive-team pick Green and first-teamer/steals specialist Caver.
Biggest weakness: Foul shooting. ODU was one of the worst teams in the country at the charity stripe and missed 11 in a game twice during a pair of Conference USA losses. Only one player on the roster shoots better than 70 percent, and opponents know it. In an era when the line is vastly undervalued, the Monarchs will need to be more consistent at the line if they hope to carve out a run.
Best player: Caver. The Monarchs point guard and All-C-USA first-team selection goes end-to-end in a flash, boasts the quickest hands on the team and has developed a flair for knocking down the big shot over the years. Caver's latest addition to his late-game heroics: a 3 that lifted Old Dominion into the conference semis. ODU has had plenty of tight games entering the tournament, and if it needs a crucial bucket late, expect Caver to be the one to take it.
X factor: Green. The redshirt sophomore often gets lost in the shuffle in a starting backcourt with Caver and scoring/rebounding extraordinaire Stith, but the Monarchs wouldn't be here without him. The big guard made a huge difference in the Conference USA tournament, lifting them into the title game with the winning 3-point play in a last second win over UAB. Green was also their best source of offense down the stretch in the final and could be again if opponents aim to take away ODU's primary scorers.
SCOUTING REPORT
How they beat you: Old Dominion dictates the tempo and forces opponents to play at its pace. The Monarchs are one of the 40 slowest and most deliberate teams in the country on offense. They aren't a great shooting team but make up for it by neutralizing opponents at the other end of the floor with their physical man-to-man. ODU thrives in low-scoring and tight games, making Jones' bunch much more dangerous in March.
How you beat them: Guard-heavy teams with straight-line drivers have had success combating ODU's physical defense. Being able to score early is a big deal, as the Monarchs aren't the most efficient offense and will go through offensive lulls, giving opponents a chance to build a working margin. They'll need a full 40 minutes to do it. Four of Old Dominion's eight losses this season came by two possessions or fewer.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 16.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 216th (102.1)
Defensive efficiency, 46th (96.5)
3-point percentage, 119th (35.3)
3-point percentage D, 69th (32.5)
Free throw rate, 274th (29.6)
Free throw rate D, 161st (32.4)
TO percentage, 135th (17.9)
TO percentage D, 165th (18.6)
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Sweet 16
Perhaps Old Dominion's best attribute is its mental toughness. That starts with Jones, who may have done his best coaching job in the most extreme of personal circumstances during a season-long battle with prostate cancer. His guys don't get rattled and came back from a pair of double-digit deficits in massive nonconference wins over Syracuse and VCU. An ability to stay calm when the pressure turns up will serve the Monarchs well and, combined with how well they defend, could be worth a couple of wins.
Worst-case scenario: One-and-done
For as much praise as there is for the Monarchs on D, their Achilles' heel lies on offense. They're a below-average offensive team that can be held under 60 on any given night. They lack consistent low-post scoring options, and their first matchup will be their most difficult in months. If the backcourt has an off night, they most likely don't have enough depth to pick up the slack.