The Northeastern Huskies won 12 of their past 13 games to reach the NCAA tournament for only the second time in the past 25 years. The Huskies boast a balanced, experienced scoring attack (four upperclassmen average double figures) and played the most difficult schedule in the CAA (123rd nationally, according to BPI). Northeastern features qualities of past Cinderellas hailing from its conference, but will they enjoy the same fortune?
ESPN+ has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: Alabama, Hofstra (twice), Charleston (twice)
Worst losses: at Towson, vs. Delaware, vs. Boston University
Regular-season conference finish: 2nd, CAA
Polls and metrics: As of March 14, both BPI and KenPom ranked the Huskies at No. 80. The NCAA's new NET ranking also had Northeastern at No. 80 in its most recent release.
All-time tourney record: 3-8
Coach (tourney record): Bill Coen, 0-1
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 14.)
Starting lineup
C Anthony Green (8.9 PPG, 5.4 RPG)
G Bolden Brace (10.0 PPG, 6.0 RPG)
G Vasa Pusica (17.8 PPG, 4.2 APG)
G Jordan Roland (14.7 PPG, 2.4 RPG)
G Donnell Gresham, Jr. (9.8 PPG, 3.2 APG)
Key bench players
G Shawn Occeus (10.1 PPG, 2.0 APG)
F Tomas Murphy (8.2 PPG, 3.5 RPG)
G Myles Franklin (1.7 PPG, 0.8 APG)
Biggest strength: Northeastern plays efficient offense on the strength of its perimeter shooting and risk aversion. Three of the Huskies' four leading scorers shoot more than 40 percent from beyond the arc, which stretches opposing defenses like a rubber band. The offense runs effectively regardless of who initiates it, and the collective unselfishness of the group contributes to high-quality shots and low turnover rates.
Biggest weakness: The Huskies employ man-to-man defense 92 percent of the time, but it is much less effective than their zone. Northeastern ranks in the 16th percentile nationally in points per play allowed (0.92) using man-to-man defense, and particularly struggles against the pick-and-roll and isolation. Their lack of perimeter quickness is an Achilles' heel against teams with dynamic ball handlers.
Best player: Pusica. The first-team All-CAA performer is a versatile scorer who thrives with or without the ball. He is superb as a transition ball handler who rarely makes the wrong decision when running their secondary break. In the half court, he grades favorably as a spot-up shooter and in isolation, a blend that renders him very difficult to guard.
X factor: Green. He is the only starter that stands above 6-foot-6 and the only player on the team that blocked more than 10 shots this season. Offensively, Northeastern uses him as a pick-and-roller who sets sturdy screens for its high-percentage jump-shooters. On defense, Green defends the post with zeal but must avoid foul trouble due to Northeastern's lack of frontcourt depth.
SCOUTING REPORT
How they beat you: When the Huskies are clicking, they run a highly effective motion offense with multiple ball handlers that create high-percentage perimeter looks. Despite regularly playing with three or four guards on the floor, Northeastern led its conference in defensive rebound percentage (75.7). As a result, a guard often initiates the secondary break rather than an outlet pass from a big, creating easy scores in transition.
How you beat them: Teams attacking Northeastern off the dribble often have their way offensively. The Huskies lack perimeter quickness and rim protection, a combo that affords opponents high-quality looks in the paint. The Northeastern offense has very few flaws, but it has proven to be susceptible against teams that trap aggressively.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 14.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 45th (111.5)
Defensive efficiency, 143rd (102.6)
3-point percentage, 15th (38.8)
3-point percentage D, 127th (33.6)
Free throw rate, 148th (34.3)
Free throw rate D, 47th (28.0)
TO percentage, 57th (16.7)
TO percentage D, 291st (16.7)
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Sweet 16
It's a tale as old as time -- experienced team with outstanding guard play advances to the Sweet 16. Don't be shocked if Northeastern follows that blueprint. The Huskies rarely beat themselves and discovered a formula the past two months that has them thriving.
Worst-case scenario: One and done
The Huskies have almost no chance if they do not convert 3s at a high percentage because of their defensive woes. And while this is among the country's most experienced teams, it does not have an NCAA tournament pedigree to draw on.