Junior guard Vinnie Shahid erupted for 20 of his team-high 22 points in the second half to lead the North Dakota State Bison to a 10-point win over Omaha in the Summit League's cut-down-the-nets game, punching its NCAA tournament ticket in the process. No one saw this coming for David Richman's team, which started the season 2-7, including a 42-point loss to then-No.1 Gonzaga. But North Dakota State, a school known more for its football prowess (see Wentz, Carson) than its hoops accomplishments, grew up over time and will be making its first trip to the Big Dance since 2015. Will the Bison, who are playing their best basketball of the season, pull off a first-round stunner?
ESPN+ has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: Omaha in the Summit League title game
Worst losses: at Denver
Regular season conference finish: 3rd, Summit League
Polls and metrics: With an 18-15 overall record, the Bison are ranked 222nd in the latest NET rankings.
All-time tourney record: 1-3
Coach (tourney record): David Richman (0-1)
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 13.)
Starting lineup
F Rocky Kreuser (9.0 PPG, 3.7 RPG)
G Tyson Ward (12.3 PPG, 6.3 RPG)
G Sam Griesel (6.0 PPG, 3.7 RPG)
G Jared Samuelson (7.2 PPG, 1.2 APG)
G Vinnie Shahid (12.8 PPG, 2.7 APG)
Key bench players
G Tyree Eady (6.6 PPG, 2.5 RPG)
F Deng Geu (9.9 PPG, 5.0 RPG)
G Cameron Hunter (7.0 PPG, 1.6 RPG)
Biggest strengths: The ring leaders for Richman's team are Shahid, a juco import who has figured out the Division I game and was the hero of the Summit League title win, and 6-6 Ward, who is healthy now and has blossomed into a nightly double-figure scorer. But this isn't a two-man team. Richman has eight players who can all score, and that depth served the Bison well last week at the league tournament in Sioux Falls.
Biggest weakness: Lack of experience. One of only nine Division I men's hoops team with no seniors on its roster, there's a good chance that North Dakota State could be overwhelmed by the enormity of March Madness.
Best player: Shahid, often the tiniest man on the court, is North Dakota State's best all-around player. Chosen as the Summit League Newcomer of the Year, the 5-11 Shahid does everything but book the team flights. The team's top scorer, Shahid is deadly from behind the 3-point arc and the charity stripe. He also leads the Bison in assists and steals.
X factor: Ward and Geu are both as crafty as YMCA lifers in the low post. Of the two, the lefty Ward owns a more complete offensive arsenal. He's equally comfortable behind the arc and in the low post, while Deng's office is the low blocks, where his flawless footwork and up-and-under moves often result in buckets.
SCOUTING REPORT
How they beat you: The Bison are deeper than a Henry James novel, and each player has a license to hoist shots. Don't believe us? Ten different North Dakota State players have made at least 10 3-balls this seasons -- led by Samuelson (64), Shahid (60), Kreuser (42), and Eady (35). But when the game is in the balance, Richman is no dummy. He'll instruct his charges to put the ball in Shahid's hands because he can either score himself or set up others to do so.
How you beat them: North Dakota State isn't going to be confused with Virginia at the defensive end of the floor. So attack the Bison. Because if one of their on-the-court leaders (i.e. Shahid, Ward) gets in foul trouble, it's curtains for North Dakota State.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 13.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 132nd (106.4)
Defensive efficiency, 277th (109.7)
3-point percentage, 60th (36.8)
3-point percentage D, 293rd (36.6)
Free throw rate, 212th (32.1)
Free throw rate D, 21st (26.2)
TO percentage, 24th (15.8)
TO percentage D, 347th (14.6)
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Round of 32 ouster
North Dakota State has a cadre of 3-point marksmen and a tough-as-nails point guard in Shahid. The 3-point shot is the college hoops' equivalent of the slingshot that David used to take down Goliath. The Bison hope its ability to make the long shots will shorten their odds this week in the Big Dance.
Worst-case scenario: One-and-done
North Dakota State will use the March Madness underdog's weapon of choice, the 3-ball. The Bison will hoist a healthy number of 3-pointers. If they're dropping, then an earth-shattering upset is possible. If not, it'll be jersey collection time in Fargo.