The North Carolina Tar Heels roll into the 2019 NCAA tournament as a top seed and are primed to erase the bad memory of an early exit from a season ago. The Heels are oozing with talent and have established themselves as one of the top teams in the country. Can Roy Williams' squad get to Minneapolis and deliver the school's second national title in the last three years?
ESPN+ has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: vs. Gonzaga, vs. Virginia Tech, at Louisville, at Clemson, Duke (twice)
Worst losses: Texas
Regular season conference finish: Tied 1st, ACC
Polls and metrics: BPI ranked the Tar Heels at No. 5 as of March 10, as did KenPom. The NCAA's new NET ranking had UNC at No. 7 in its most recent release.
All-time tourney record: 124-46 (20 Final Fours, 6 national championships)
Coach (tourney record): Roy Williams (77-25, 9 Final Fours, 3 national championships)
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 10.)
Starting lineup
F Cameron Johnson (16.8 PPG, 5.9 RPG)
F Luke Maye (14.6 PPG, 10.5 RPG)
F Garrison Brooks (8.1 PPG, 5.8 RPG)
G Kenny Williams (8.9 PPG, 3.6 APG)
G Coby White (16.3 PPG, 4.1 APG)
Key bench players
F Nassir Little (9.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG)
G Brandon Robinson (3.2PPG, 1.5 RPG)
G Seventh Woods (2.8 PPG, 2.3 APG)
Biggest strength: The Heels play one of the fastest brands of basketball out there. That's usually a pretty good recipe for success under Williams. His best teams have been the ones that get up and down the floor and maximize their possessions. This team thrives in that environment, led by one of the best starting backcourts in the country in ACC all-rookie White and the underrated Williams.
Biggest weakness: Lack of consistent post presence. There isn't a Hansbrough or May go-to big if the Heels need a bucket in a tough spot. Carolina has plenty of scoring options, but its two best players can be very perimeter heavy. A lockdown 3-point defensive team could pose a major problem.
Best player: White. The fab frosh is roadrunner fast and can get into the lane whenever he wants. Once he figures out he doesn't have to settle for the perimeter, the ceiling is to be one of the greatest in Tar Heel history.
X factor: Maye. When the second-team All-ACC selection is playing within himself and taking good shots, he's one of the most versatile players in the nation. Maye can score from the perimeter down to the block, but how he responds to matchups with more athletic bigs might be the difference between heading to Minneapolis or going home prematurely.
SCOUTING REPORT
How they beat you: The Heels are at their best when they're out and running in transition. White's ability to blow by defenders is a problem for opposing defenses and one that Carolina has exploited all season. Six different players average at least eight points per game, allowing Williams' guys to withstand the occasional rough night from one of their top scorers.
How you beat them: Find a way to slow them down. Three of Carolina's five losses this year came when the Heels were held under 70 points. Michigan, Louisville and Virginia were all able to exploit Carolina from the arc, which has been the biggest hole in its defense, although it did get better down the stretch. Opponents get more than 36 percent of their points against UNC from 3-point land, among the top 60 in the country.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 13.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 7th (119.9)
Defensive efficiency, 11th (91.2)
3-point percentage, 46th (37.3)
3-point percentage D, 108th (33.2)
Free throw rate, 237th (31.2)
Free throw rate D, 85th (29.8)
TO percentage, 98th (17.4)
TO percentage D, 162nd (18.7)
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: national title
The Heels' hunger to get back to that Monday night game in early April is evident. Their resume has demonstrated an ability to beat anyone in the country, and the blend of youth and experience on this roster might be the perfect formula to cut down the nets in Minneapolis. Maye, Johnson and the rest of this senior class will make sure no one sneaks up on Carolina en route to the Twin Cities.
Worst-case scenario: Sweet 16
There is simply too much that UNC does well to envision a scenario where Williams' squad goes down before the second weekend. The Heels' tempo and raw talent will be too much to handle in their first couple of games, and the likelihood of a loss even on the second weekend doesn't seem that high. Save for an uberathletic team that can crash the glass -- a la Texas A&M a year ago -- the Heels are built to stick around.