Eric Musselman seems to have perfected the concept of taking transfers and molding them into winners. Riding the backs of Caleb Martin and Cody Martin (NC State) and Jordan Caroline (Southern Illinois), the Nevada Wolf Pack have enjoyed the winningest two-year stretch in program history. This year Musselman added big men Trey Porter (Old Dominion) and Tre'Shawn Thurman (Omaha) as grad transfers to form an all-senior, all-transfer starting five that produced the most wins in program history. Last year's team was one basket away from the Elite Eight. Can this year's edition of the Wolf Pack take it even further and reach Nevada's first ever Final Four?
ESPN+ has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: vs. Arizona State, Utah State, BYU
Worst losses: at New Mexico, at San Diego State
Regular season conference finish: Tied 1st, Mountain West
Polls and metrics: After going 11 years without being ranked in the AP Poll until last season, the Wolfpack never left the top 25 this year. Nevada was 16 in the BPI at the end of the regular season, 18 in the NET rankings, and 23 in KenPom.
All-time tourney record: 6-8
Coach (tourney record): Eric Musselman (2-2)
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 10.)
Starting lineup
F Trey Porter (7.5 PPG, 4.6 RPG)
F Tre'Shawn Thurman (7.9 PPG, 5.6 RPG)
F Jordan Caroline (17.7 PPG, 9.6 RPG)
G Caleb Martin (19.6 PPG, 5.1 RPG)
G Cody Martin (11.6 PPG, 5.1 APG)
Key bench players
G Jazz Johnson (11.0 PPG, 44.1 3PT%)
G Corey Henson (3.0 PPG, 1.0 RPG)
F Jordan Brown (3.1 PPG, 2.3 RPG)
Biggest strength: The Wolfpack are long and versatile. Every starter is 6-foot-7 or taller and can score in a variety of ways. Even the bigs Thurman and Porter can face up and get to the rim off the dribble. The Martins and Caroline have the ability to grab a defensive rebound and lead the break. Musselman has created the ideal position-less team with an attack mentality that has manifested itself into one of the country's most efficient offenses.
Biggest weakness: Among their many unique qualities, the Wolf Pack play an extremely aggressive style without much depth. This is essentially a six-man team, with Johnson the only reserve seeing any extensive minutes late in the season. Having the experience of five seniors does help navigate foul trouble. It wasn't really an issue until the late regular-season loss to Utah State, but Nevada only played two Quad 1 games all season. Coaching through foul trouble, especially if it's Caleb Martin or Caroline, could be Musselman's biggest challenge against upgraded competition.
Best player: Caleb Martin. His shooting efficiency dropped off some in his senior season, but he remained Nevada's most explosive offensive force, and his all-around game improved. Even more notable was how good he became when it mattered most. He averaged 12 points per second half with 61 percent of his offense coming after halftime. His relentlessness on both ends begins to pay dividends, as his opponents tire, he gets better.
X factor: Johnson. Caroline is Nevada's second-best player, and Cody Martin is better all-around, but Johnson's minutes off the bench are invaluable. While by no means strictly a standstill jump shooter, Johnson is easily the team's best 3-point shooter at 45.3 percent, and provides a perimeter changeup to the take-no-prisoners style of Caleb Martin. He usually enters the game for either Porter or Thurman, allowing Musselman to spread out his offense even more.
SCOUTING REPORT
How they beat you: Nevada is a matchup nightmare with its length and interchangeable parts. The Martin twins and Caroline always find a way to get to the rim and can equally find a one-on-one matchup they can shoot over. All three were also first-team all-defense in the MWC. That aggressive style is meant to put opponents on their heels and gets trips to the free throw line at the 19th-best rate in the country. When the Wolf Pack are at their best, the court appears to be tilted downhill.
How you beat them: The refrain in the Wolf Pack's three regular season losses was the same -- they were outrebounded and shot poorly from 3-point range. Nevada is just an average defensive rebounding team and doesn't generate much scoring at all from the offensive glass, ranking 236th in the country in offensive rebound rate. Both of the Martins can be erratic long-range shooters, so pushing them to the perimeter as much as possible is the best way to limit their effectiveness.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 10.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 23rd (114.8)
Defensive efficiency, 30th (94.7)
3-point percentage, 124th (35.3)
3-point percentage D, 83rd (32.8)
Free throw rate, 19th (41.3)
Free throw rate D, 41st (27.6)
TO percentage, 9th (14.3)
TO percentage D, 113th (19.5)
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Final Four
Nevada was a possession away from the Elite Eight a year ago, so it's not a huge leap to think the Wolf Pack could extend their season another weekend. No team in the tournament is more experienced. Their length, especially on the perimeter with the Martin twins, will be a big advantage against teams not used to seeing it, and Nevada did go unbeaten in nonconference play. The game tends to slow down in the NCAA tournament, but if Nevada can impose its pace and get the game into space, getting to the Final Four could certainly be the ending for this group of seniors.
Worst-case scenario: First weekend
The biggest question mark around the Wolf Pack is whether they were tested enough. They played much of the Mountain West season, especially near the end, like they just couldn't wait to get to the postseason. Yet, other than Utah State, the challenges in the conference are few. Could that anxiousness hurt Nevada, or could the fact that the Wolf Pack didn't play many tournament-level games during the season leave them vulnerable? It the answer to either is yes, then an early exit is possible.