The Murray State Racers thumped Belmont in the Ohio Valley Conference final for the second season in a row, returning to the NCAA tournament and giving the national college basketball audience another shot at seeing electrifying point guard Ja Morant before he likely departs for the NBA. The Racers are riding an 11-game winning streak in the fourth season for coach Matt McMahon, who is a rising star in the business. How far can McMahon and Morant lead the Racers this March?
ESPN+ has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: vs. Belmont, vs. Wright State, at Austin Peay
Worst losses: at Jacksonville State, at Alabama
Regular-season conference finish: Tied first, Ohio Valley
Polls and metrics: BPI ranked the Racers at No. 50 as of March 10, while KenPom pegged them at No. 51. The NCAA's new NET ranking had Murray State at No. 44 in its most recent release.
All-time tourney record: 3-16
Coach (tourney record): Matt McMahon (0-1)
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 10.)
Starting lineup
F KJ Williams (7.6 PPG, 4.7 RPG)
F Darnell Cowart (10.4 PPG, 6.5 RPG)
G Tevin Brown (11.7 PPG, 4.7 RPG)
G Shaq Buchanan (13.0 PPG, 4.2 RPG)
G Ja Morant (24.6 PPG, 10.0 APG)
Key bench players
F Devin Gilmore (3.5 PPG, 2.9 RPG)
F Brion Sanchious (2.8 PPG, 3.1 RPG)
G Jaiveon Eaves (3.7 PPG, 0.9 RPG)
Biggest strength: This squad loves the open floor and scores in transition as efficiently as anyone in the field. Morant's combination of athleticism, basketball IQ and elite passing creates easy baskets for his teammates. The Racers converted 57 percent of their 2-point field goals (fifth in the nation). They're also an unselfish bunch, assisting on 58.5 percent of their baskets (37th in the nation) while pushing the tempo in transition (they force more than 14 turnovers per game.)
Biggest weakness: Defensive rebounding. Opponents collect 30 percent of their missed shots, which places the Racers in the bottom third among Division I teams. Teams have scored at a high rate against Murray State on putbacks, although the team did improve in this area over the latter part of the season.
Best player: In just two seasons at Murray State, Morant has gone from overlooked prospect to complementary starter to projected top-three pick in the NBA draft in June. He's a finalist for the Wooden Award and a probable first-team All-American. The 6-foot-2 point guard attacks the paint at will, throws down thunderous dunks, assists on more than half the Racers' baskets and hits 34 percent beyond the arc.
X factor: Cowart. In his first season with the Racers, the 6-foot-8, 295-pound junior college transfer joined the starting lineup in early February against Tennessee Tech and the Racers haven't lost since. He's scored in double figures in the past 10 games, averaging 14 points and shooting 63 percent from the field during that stretch. It's difficult to advance in March without an inside presence. Cowart fulfills that need for Murray State.
SCOUTING REPORT
How they beat you: Relentless scoring inside the arc and strategic defense that forces opponents to score two by two. While most of the scoring attention is rightfully focused on Morant, he's not the only dangerous Racer in the backcourt. Buchanan is a two-year starter who made 58 percent of his 2-pointers, while 6-foot-5 freshman Brown nailed 84 3-pointers. On the other end, the Racers allow opponents only six 3-point field goals per game and play aggressive defense without egregious fouling.
How you beat them: There's no shame in losing close games at Alabama or Auburn or falling in the lone regular-season meeting at Belmont. But on the rare nights when Murray State landed on the losing side, the pairing of poor interior defense and cold perimeter shooting contributed to its demise. Like most mid-majors, the Racers aren't particularly tall or deep in the frontcourt and can surrender putbacks and struggle to protect the rim.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of KenPom.com and are accurate through games of March 10.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 41st (111.7)
Defensive efficiency, 77th (98.5)
3-point percentage, 171st (34.4)
3-point percentage D, fourth (28.5)
Free throw rate, 185th (33.2)
Free throw rate D, 57th (28.5)
TO percentage, 77th (17.2)
TO percentage D, 112th (19.5)
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Second weekend
Any team with a special talent like Morant steering a potent offense is quite dangerous in March. The elite playmaker poured in 36 points in the OVC title game, giving him 15 outings of at least 25 points and 18 games with at least 10 assists. The Racers scored at least 1.2 points per possession against 10 Division I teams, including Auburn. Morant will find his teammates in their scoring comfort zones. If they can knock down open shots, the Racers could reach the Sweet 16 for the first time in school history.
Worst-case scenario: One and done
In the Racers' four losses, Morant was 4-for-24 from beyond the arc. If his shots aren't falling and the frontcourt can't finish defensive possessions by securing the rebound, life will be difficult for the Racers because Buchanan is the only other player capable of creating offense for himself. Murray State cannot afford foul trouble among its three forwards, either.