For the second consecutive season, the Montana Grizzlies captured the Big Sky championship under the guidance of Travis DeCuire, a rising star in the college-coaching ranks. The Grizzlies were bounced in the first round of the NCAA tournament last year by Michigan (which finished as national runner-up) but trailed by only three at halftime. Can Montana break through this year and advance to the second weekend?
ESPN+ has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: at South Dakota State, vs. Georgia State, at Northern Colorado
Worst losses: Portland State (twice), at Eastern Washington
Regular-season conference finish: 1st, Big Sky
Polls and metrics: BPI ranked the Grizzlies at No. 120 as of March 16, while KenPom had them slightly lower at No. 138. The NCAA's new NET ranking had Montana at No. 123 in its most recent release.
All-time tourney record: 2-12
Coach (tourney record): Travis DeCuire, 0-1
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 15.)
Starting lineup
G Bobby Moorehead (5.3 PPG, 5.2 RPG)
G Sayeed Pridgett (14.9 PPG, 5.1 RPG)
G Timmy Falls (4.5 PPG, 2.4 APG)
G Michael Oguine (13.2 PPG, 5.4 RPG)
G Ahmaad Rorie (15.2 PPG, 4.1 APG)
Key bench players
G Kendal Manuel (9.1 PPG, 2.2 RPG)
G Donaven Dorsey (5.9 PPG, 1.5 RPG)
F Mack Anderson (2.3 PPG, 1.6 RPG)
Biggest strength: Montana's backcourt, anchored by Rorie and Oguine, is among the best-kept secrets in college basketball. Both seniors, Rorie and Oguine key a Montana offense that grades in the top 10 percent of points per play in the half court and transition. The tandem has played together for three years (Rorie played one season at Oregon) and demonstrates that continuity on both ends of the floor.
Biggest weakness: Transition defense. Montana allows 1.08 points per play in transition, which grades in the 17th percentile nationally. On paper, the Grizzlies should thrive in this area because the vast majority of their minutes come from guards. But Montana much prefers to play at a deliberate pace, and opponents take advantage of its lack of team speed.
Best player: Rorie. The two-time first-team All-Big Sky selection thrives as Montana's primary pick-and-roll ball handler. Rorie is a shrewd passer who seeks uncontested 3-point attempts for teammates when the defense collapses (Montana led the Big Sky in 3-pt FG pct). As a true combo guard, Rorie is adept at driving left or right and grades in the 74th percentile as a jump shooter, as well (1.05 points per play).
X factor: Pridgett. The 6-foot-5 guard was also named first-team All-Big Sky and features a variety of skills. He runs the floor exceptionally well for a player his size and profiles as Montana's best finisher in transition. Defensively, he possesses outstanding lateral quickness against drives but also defends the post, as well as players 3 or 4 inches taller.
SCOUTING REPORT
How they beat you: Montana's half-court offense, especially against man-to-man, is a well-oiled machine. The Grizzlies' most frequent shot type is a spot-up jumper (27 percent of time), which enables them to capitalize on superior jump shooting (93rd percentile in points per play on jump shots). The Grizzlies pick their spots in transition but rely on experienced decision-makers when they do.
How you beat them: Because Montana prefers to play deliberately, it is easily rattled when opponents turn misses into transition opportunities. The Grizzlies have also shown considerable vulnerabilities defending in isolation, which is exacerbated due to poor help defense. In Montana's one big major-conference test this season, vs. Creighton (Nov. 28), the Blue Jays exploited both of those areas.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 15.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 109th (107.8)
Defensive efficiency, 166th (104.3)
3-point percentage, 33rd (37.8)
3-point percentage D, 187th (34.3)
Free throw rate, 210th (32.1)
Free throw rate D, 281st (37.5)
TO percentage, 98th (17.4)
TO percentage D, 127th (19.2)
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Sweet 16
Montana plays with extraordinary confidence, which stems from experience and continuity. It possesses a legitimate major-conference backcourt and a bevy of shot-makers. If the Grizzlies coax their opponent into playing a deliberate pace, they can score enough to make it out of the first weekend.
Worst-case scenario: One and done
Montana has only one top-100 win (according to BPI), so it has no record of accomplishment of playing up to competition. The Grizzlies have considerable flaws on defense and have been without their leading scorer and rim protector, 6-8 Jamar Akoh, since Feb. 7. Though they've patched together a formula that worked against Big Sky opponents, it's unlikely to be as effective in the NCAA tourney.