After three straight first-weekend exits, Tom Izzo would like to make some March Madness noise with his Michigan State Spartans in the coming weeks. Thanks to the recent return of low-post operator Nick Ward from a broken hand suffered in mid-February, Izzo appears to have the necessary firepower to make a Final Four run. MSU is led by All-American point guard Cassius Winston and beefy bangers Ward, Kenny Goins and Xavier Tillman. Do the seasoned Spartans have what it takes to break the Big Ten's 19-year national title drought?
ESPN+ has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: Texas, at Florida, Iowa (twice), at Wisconsin, Michigan (twice)
Worst losses: vs. Indiana, at Illinois
Regular season conference finish: Tied-1st, Big Ten
Polls and metrics: The Spartans are one of the top 10 teams in the nation, whether your preferred measurement of choice is the AP poll (sixth), coaches poll (seventh) or the NET rankings (eighth).
All-time tourney record: 65-31, two national titles, nine Final Fours
Coach (tourney record): Tom Izzo (48-20), one national title, seven Final Fours
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 13.)
Starting lineup
F Nick Ward (15.1 PPG, 6.7 RPG)
F Kenny Goins (8.3 PPG, 9.1 RPG)
F Aaron Henry (5.3 PPG, 3.4 RPG)
G Matt McQuaid (9.3 PPG, 2.3 APG)
G Cassius Winston (19.0 PPG, 7.6 APG)
Key bench players
F Xavier Tillman (9.3 PPG, 7.0 RPG)
F Kyle Ahrens (5.1 PPG, 2.7 RPG)
F Gabe Brown (2.2 PPG, 1.0 RPG)
Biggest strengths: Experience. Trustworthy guards are critical for March success, and Izzo has an All-American as his coach on the floor in point guard Winston. And everywhere one looks there are experienced hands -- whether it is the aforementioned Ward and Winston, ace wing defender McQuaid, superb sixth man Tillman or proven scorer Goins.
Biggest weakness: The injury bug has visited East Lansing too much this winter. After missing three weeks of action, Ward (broken left hand) returned for the 2019 Big Ten tourney with some extra padding on his hand. Starter Joshua Langford is out for the season with a foot injury, while valuable 6-foot-6 bench contributor Ahrens, who was nursing a sore back for a while, suffered a leg injury in the Big Ten tournament title game Sunday.
Best player: Michigan State's headband-wearing floor general Winston is one of the nation's best players. An afterthought as a freshman, Winston has blossomed into an All-American as a junior. He is an artful passer (third in the nation with 7.6 APG), a deadly 3-point marksman (.413 3PT) and a terrific straight-line driver with the best collection of finishing moves this side of Kyrie Irving.
X factor: Tillman is the 2019 Big Ten sixth man of the year. He literally makes his significant presence (6-foot-8 and 260 pounds) felt on the court every night. Even though he doesn't start, Tillman is a double-double threat off the pine.
SCOUTING REPORT
How they beat you: The Spartans win by adhering to the tenets of Izzology: intense defense, balanced scoring and an everyone-on-the-defensive-glass approach. The 2019 edition of the Spartans are stout defenders (.376 FG allowed, .234 3PT allowed) and relentless glass-eaters (+9.1 rebound margin).
How you beat them: Ward can be foul-prone at times, so make him work, particularly with him just back after missing three weeks due to injury. If he is sitting next to Izzo with foul trouble rather than terrorizing your 5-man, your chances of pulling the upset increase greatly.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 13.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 4th (121.6)
Defensive efficiency, 9th (90.8)
3-point percentage, 25th (38.1)
3-point percentage D, 47th (31.8)
Free throw rate, 117th (35.2)
Free throw rate D, 60th (28.6)
TO percentage, 193rd (18.7)
TO percentage D, 340th (15.0)
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: National title
The Spartans will be a popular office pool pick to win the whole enchilada. They have won this season with time-tested ingredients: elite coaching, killer D, relentless rebounding and a savvy closer (Winston) to make plays at winning time. All of these traits will serve them well in March and will give the 64-year-old Izzo a puncher's chance at his second national title.
Worst-case scenario: Sweet 16 loss
After three straight first-weekend flameouts, the Spartans are hell-bent on at least getting to the second weekend of the Big Dance. Given MSU's many strengths, it figures to get there, but any of the remaining teams will be capable of sending the Spartans home.