They're baaaaack. After finishing as the national runner-up to Villanova last season, the Michigan Wolverines served notice early this season that they'd be a national title threat again in 2019, besting the past two national champs (Villanova and North Carolina) before Christmas. Gone from last season's juggernaut is Moe Wagner. But he was adequately replaced by 6-foot-7 Ignas Brazdeikis, the Big Ten's top newcomer, who was born in Lithuania. While "Iggy" is a new face, most of the key pieces from the team that marched through March for John Beilein a year ago are back -- including pass-first point guard Zavier Simpson, proven wings Charles Matthews and Jordan Poole and vastly improved pivot Jon Teske. After nearly winning the whole ball of wax a year ago, can Michigan close the deal this season?
ESPN+ has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: at Villanova, vs. North Carolina, vs. Purdue, vs. Wisconsin, Maryland (twice)
Worst losses: at Penn State
Regular-season conference finish: Third, Big Ten
Polls and metrics: Thanks to some impressive scalps (e.g., at Villanova, North Carolina, a number of big-time Big Ten triumphs), the Wolverines are at No. 10 in the NET rankings.
All-time tourney record: 59-27, one national title, eight Final Fours
Coach (tourney record): John Beilein (24-12)
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 13.)
Starting lineup
C Jon Teske (9.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG)
F Ignas Brazdeikis (15.0 PPG, 5.3 RPG)
G Charles Matthews (12.8 PPG, 5.1 RPG)
G Jordan Poole (13.0 PPG, 2.1 APG)
G Zavier Simpson (9.1 PPG, 6.3 APG)
Key bench players
F Isaiah Livers (7.5 PPG, 4.1 RPG)
G Eli Brooks (2.3 PPG, 1.2 APG)
F/C Austin Davis (1.2 PPG, 0.8 RPG)
Biggest strengths: Beilein is one of the best sideline maestros in college hoops, and his team is difficult to prepare for because it plays a truly distinct offense, incorporating Pete Carril principles (i.e., inverted sets with Brazdeikis playing away from the hoop, backdoor cuts and 3-point tries aplenty). If that weren't enough to fret about, the Wolverines are one of the most efficient defensive teams in the land, too.
Biggest weakness: The Wolverines' biggest weakness is a lack of depth. They're especially thin at the point guard spot. If Simpson, the team's heart and soul and one of the nation's best defenders, gets into foul trouble or someone's not shooting well, Michigan could be in trouble, because Beilein doesn't have much pop off the pine this season.
Best player: Wagner left for NBA riches and was replaced seamlessly by Brazdeikis, a brash freshman who idolizes Conor McGregor and was one of the most interesting newbies in the college game not named Zion. Brazdeikis can score inside or outside and is particularly deadly as a perimeter shooter in pick-and-pop situations (.417 3-point percentage). And like his idol McGregor, Brazdeikis talks a great game and doesn't mind being the villain.
X factor: Simpson stands barely 6 feet tall, owns a spotty jump shot and isn't a freakish athlete. But he's the man who makes Michigan go at both ends of the floor. On offense, Simpson is adept at coming off ball screens, getting into the teeth of the defense and feeding open teammates. On defense, Simpson dogs the opposing point guard from the last notes of the national anthem until the final horn and is one of the Big Ten's top pickpockets (1.5 steals per game).
SCOUTING REPORT
How they beat you: The Wolverines take care of the ball like their first-born, expertly spread the floor and willingly share the ball. In addition, Beilein has a terrific on-the-ball defender in Simpson and some athletic wings in Matthews and Poole, so he is able effectively mix his defenses -- mostly man-to-man D -- to keep foes off balance and to make 3-point tries difficult (.294 3-point percentage allowed).
How you beat them: The Wolverines are a good, but not elite, shooting team, and their bench doesn't have the firepower Beilein would like. If you can get one of the key cogs in the starting five (i.e., Simpson, Matthews or Brazdeikis) into foul difficulty, Michigan struggles mightily.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of KenPom.com and are accurate through games of March 13.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 18th (115.8)
Defensive efficiency, second (87.1)
3-point percentage, 134th (35.1)
3-point percentage D, eighth (29.4)
Free throw rate, 292nd (28.2)
Free throw rate D, 10th (24.8)
TO percentage, third (13.8)
TO percentage D, 168th (18.6)
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: National champions
The Wolverines are a difficult team to scout because of their unique offense, their low turnover rate and their airtight defense. And in Beilein, they have an expert X-and-O man calling the shots. Michigan is one of the eight or so teams with a legit shot to win the national title.
Worst-case scenario: Sweet 16 loss
The hand-to-hand combat of 20 Big Ten regular-season games has toughened up the Wolverines for what they hope is another deep tourney run. Their defense is spectacular, the offense is efficient, but UM's lack of quality depth could be its undoing.