The Marquette Golden Eagles were one of the surprises of the 2018-19 regular season, as a team unranked to start the year rose as high as No. 10 in the country and battled all season with defending national champion Villanova for Big East supremacy. Now, coach Steve Wojciechowski's team gets to see whether it can hang on the national stage when it matters and deliver the Marquette program its first tournament win since 2013.
Can All-American candidate Markus Howard and the Golden Eagles deliver on their regular-season promise?
ESPN+ has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel, and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: vs. Kansas State, vs. Louisville, vs. Wisconsin, vs. Villanova, at Creighton, at Georgetown, vs. Buffalo
Worst losses: at Indiana, at St. John's, vs. St. John's, vs. Georgetown
Regular-season conference finish: 2nd, Big East
Polls and metrics: Marquette's rankings have dipped during its late season swoon, as it ranks 29th in NET, 29th in KenPom and 28th in BPI
All-time tourney record: 41-33 (3 Final Fours, 1 National Championship)
Coach (tourney record): Steve Wojciechowski (0-1)
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 11.)
Starting lineup
F Theo John (5.8 PPG, 2.4 BPG)
F Sam Hauser (15.3 PPG, 6.8 RPG)
F Joey Hauser (9.9 PPG, 5.4 RPG)
G Sacar Anim (8.3 PPG, 3.0 RPG)
G Markus Howard (25.6 PPG, 4.1 APG)
Key bench players
F Joseph Chartouny (3.7 PPG, 2.5 APG)
F Ed Morrow (5.4 PPG, 4.0 RPG)
G/F Brendan Bailey (2.8 PPG, 1.6 RPG)
Biggest strength: Marquette is one of the best shooting teams in college basketball, starting with Howard, who might be the best shooter in the nation, but it continues throughout the roster. The Golden Eagles have shot the 10th-best percentage from beyond the arc this season among Division I teams, at nearly 40 percent. Five Marquette players have attempted more than 40 long balls and made more than 36 percent of those shots.
Biggest weakness: Marquette's defense has taken a turn for the worse as the season has progressed. The Golden Eagles have struggled all season with fouling when out of position or rotating too late. Marquette's opponents posted the second-highest free throw rate in the Big East this season. During the Golden Eagles' four-game losing streak to close the regular season, Marquette's opponents attempted an average of 28.5 free throws per game.
Best player: Howard is a likely All-American and one of the most dangerous scorers in college basketball. He's the only collegiate player in 20 years to record three 50-point games in his career. On a nightly basis, Marquette relies on Howard to fuel its offensive output. Howard has posted more than 25 points in 16 games this season, and he was one of just four players to attempt 250 shots from beyond the arc and make more than 41 percent from long range.
X factor: Of Marquette's scoring options, only Anim is at his best when driving off the dribble into the paint. Howard is an amazing shooter, and the Hauser brothers are great catch-and-shoot players, but Anim gives Marquette a change of pace with his aggressive dribble drives. His penetration opens shots for his hot shooting teammates. When Anim isn't attacking or gets bottled up, the Marquette offense stagnates.
SCOUTING REPORT
How they beat you: Marquette wants to spread teams out, with shooters stretching the defense to the 3-point line. This allows Howard space to operate as the primary ball handler. He's efficient in isolation or in a pick-and-roll. At any moment, Howard is a threat to step back for a 3-pointer or use his quick first step to penetrate and kick to another shooter. Marquette plays well with a lead, thanks in part to Howard and the Hausers being nearly automatic from the free throw line.
How you beat them: Beating Marquette means mitigating Howard's effect on the game. Opponents have been successful not just by bottling Howard up offensively but also by challenging him on the defensive end. Howard is not an outright liability defensively, but Marquette has struggled across the board with stopping dribble penetration. Teams that have attacked the paint against the Golden Eagles have lived at the free throw line.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 10.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 33rd (113.6)
Defensive efficiency, 38th (96.1)
3-point percentage, 10th (39.4)
3-point percentage D, 65th (32.5)
Free throw rate, 138th (34.6)
Free throw rate D, 229th (34.7)
TO percentage, 241st (19.5)
TO percentage D, 277th (16.9)
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Final Four
For Marquette to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament, the Golden Eagles will need to play more like they did in January than they have in recent weeks. If Wojciechowski can rally his team and return it to peak form, Howard and the Golden Eagles are good enough offensively to catch fire and shoot their way through their region. It's unlikely but possible if Howard can pull off a passable Stephen Curry impression this month.
Worst-case scenario: One and done
The way the Golden Eagles have looked of late has to scare Marquette fans heading into the Big Dance. Recent losses have looked eerily similar to what a potential upset might look like in the first round. If Howard battles foul trouble or can't find his scoring chances and the Golden Eagles are gashed by dribble penetration defensively, Marquette will head home early.