The Louisville Cardinals made a home run hire in Chris Mack. When he replaced interim coach David Padgett, Mack inherited a real dumpster fire. The firing of the legendary Rick Pitino and two of his assistants after the Cardinals program was implicated in an FBI investigation into college basketball left UL fans crying in their bourbon.
Enter Mack, who quickly changed the culture. Mack shored up a thin guard group by hitting the graduate transfer market hard, landing a floor general in Christen Cunningham, a 100-game starter at Samford, and a pitbull-type defender in Khwan Fore from Richmond. Mack and his staff then worked tirelessly to transform 6-7 sophomore Jordan Nwora from a standstill shooter into one of the ACC's most feared offensive weapons. Mack has Louisville back in the Big Dance after a one-year hiatus. Can they now do some damage?
ESPN+ has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: vs. Michigan State, at Seton Hall, at North Carolina, vs. N.C. State, at Virginia Tech
Worst losses: at Pitt, at Boston College
Regular-season conference finish: 6th, ACC
Polls and metrics: Thanks to a grueling schedule and some wins over top-shelf programs, Louisville is sitting pretty with a NET rating of 22.
All-time tourney record: 76-43, three national titles
Coach (tourney record): Chris Mack (11-8)
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 12.)
Starting lineup
C Malik Williams (7.7 PPG, 6.0 RPG)
F Jordan Nwora (17.3 PPG, 7.7 RPG)
F Dwayne Sutton (10.3 PPG, 6.9 RPG)
G Christen Cunningham (10.1 PPG, 4.9 APG)
G Khwan Fore (3.3 PPG, 1.3 APG)
Key bench players
G Ryan McMahon (7.4 PPG, 1.7 APG)
F/C Steven Enoch (9.2 PPG, 5.2 RPG)
G Darius Perry (5.0 PPG, 1.4 APG)
Biggest strength: The Cardinals have a leading-man type in the 6-foot-7 Nwora, who remade his frame and game and is now on the radar of NBA scouts. He averaged 17.3 points per game (fifth best in the ACC) despite being the focal point of every opponent's scouting report. But focus too much attention on Nwora, and Louisville's "other" guys can hurt you, too.
Biggest weakness: Louisville has some thoroughbreds but lacks the elite-level shooting guards that most ACC teams possess. And this team was out-toughed at times this season, particularly during a late-season rough patch.
Best player: Nwora was one of college hoops' breakout stars this winter, transforming himself from a long distance sniper (50.9 of his field goal attempts were 3-balls as a frosh) into a matchup nightmare as a sophomore. Blending power forward size with a wing's skill set, Nwora is a beast in Mack's four-out, one-in offense.
X factor: Coach Mack is a March Madness magician who has been wreaking havoc on the NCAA tourney office pools for years now. While at Xavier, Mack took the Musketeers to eight Big Dances in nine years, reaching the Sweet 16 four times and the Elite Eight once. He'll have the Cardinals ready for the madness that is March basketball.
SCOUTING REPORT
How they beat you: Louisville generates quality buckets at a rate that would make native son Colonel Sanders proud. Nwora, the 2019 ACC Most Improved Player, is the first option on offense, but Sutton and Cunningham average in double figures, too, and three other players score between 7.4 and 9.2 points per contest (Enoch, Williams and McMahon).
How you beat them: Louisville's eight-man rotation lacks size. Its starting guards are on the small side, their star Nwora is an undersized four-man and their starting center (Williams) is skinny (6-11, 215), so this team has been bullied at times. For example, the Cardinals managed just four points in the paint in a 64-52 loss to Virginia earlier this year. This isn't his first rodeo, so Mack has been running "caveman" drills in practice to enhance his team's toughness, energy and effort.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 12.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 29th (113.8)
Defensive efficiency, 18th (93.2)
3-point percentage, 169th (34.5)
3-point percentage D, 65th (32.5)
Free throw rate, 78th (36.4)
Free throw rate D, 154th (31.8)
TO percentage, 141st (18.1)
TO percentage D, 287th (16.8)
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Sweet 16
The Cardinals, picked to finish 11th in the ACC, have overachieved this season against a brutal schedule. They have the ingredients to win a couple of games in this tournament -- namely, a proven sideline maestro in Mack, a prolific offense and a star in Nwora willing to take the big shots.
Worst-case scenario: One-and-done
Louisville limped down the stretch, winning just three times in its last 10 regular-season games. All but one of the losses came against ACC teams in the field of 68, so there's no disgrace in the 3-7 finish. But the Cardinals can't be a confident bunch entering March Madness, and therefore they could be susceptible to an early ouster.