The Liberty Flames capitalized quickly on their new conference affiliation, stunning Lipscomb on its home floor to claim the Atlantic Sun title in its first year of membership. The Flames use a deliberate pace on offense and a pack line defense just like their neighbor Virginia, which makes sense because coach Ritchie McKay spent six seasons under Tony Bennett as the Cavaliers' associate head coach. Can the Flames grind their way to an upset?
ESPN+ has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: at Lipscomb, vs. Lipscomb, at UCLA, vs. Georgia St.
Worst losses: at North Florida, at Vanderbilt, vs. Austin Peay
Regular-season conference finish: Tied 1st, Atlantic Sun
Polls and metrics: BPI ranked the Flames at No. 62 as of March 10, while KenPom had them right there at No. 63. The NCAA's new NET ranking had Liberty No. 59 in its March 10 report.
All-time tourney record: 0-3
Coach (tourney record): Ritchie McKay (0-1).
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 10.)
Starting lineup
F Scottie James (13.1 PPG, 8.8 RPG)
G/F Caleb Homesley (12.0 PPG, 5.5 RPG)
G Lovell Cabbil (11.5 PPG, 3.6 RPG)
G Elijah Cuffee (7.9 PPG, 2.0 RPG)
G Georgie Pacheco-Ortiz (7.3 PPG, 2.3 APG)
Key bench players
F Myo Baxter-Bell (4.9 PPG, 2.5 RPG)
G/F Keenan Gumbs (5.9 PPG, 2.2 RPG)
G Darius McGhee (7.7 PPG, 2.7 RPG)
Biggest strength: The Flames are a terrific shooting team. They hit 56.9 percent of 2-point field goals (eighth in nation) and 77.9 percent of free throws, which is the best of any team in the field, while making 8.8 3-point field goals per game. Liberty is 349th in adjusted tempo, forcing teams to defend for 20 seconds on average, patiently dissecting their opponents, flourishing against man-to-man, zone or press defenses. The Flames feasted in the paint against A-Sun competition.
Biggest weakness: Generating points outside of their well-executed half-court sets. The Flames rarely run (fewer than 10 percent of possessions), don't pursue offensive rebounds (260th in the nation) and aren't particularly adept at reaching the free throw line. So, if the jump shots aren't falling and James is unable to assert himself in the low post, scoring can become a struggle for Liberty.
Best player: James, a 6-foot-8, 235-pound junior, has scored 946 points in two seasons at Liberty. He's relentless in the paint, hitting 70 percent of 2-point attempts against Division I competition this season and finds the basket in a variety of ways. He loves to post up, finishes strong off offensive rebounds, moves well without the ball and enters the tournament atop his game, averaging 18.8 points and 9.3 rebounds over the past four games.
X factor: Homesley. Not only is the 6-6 junior the Flames' second-leading scorer, he's also their best defender, versatile enough to guard anyone from a perimeter gunner to a slippery forward who operates around the rim. Homesley takes 29 percent of Liberty's shots, is an excellent passer and helps James cover the defensive glass. He has scored in double figures in 15 of the past 17 games, and Liberty will need production from him to spoil a bracket.
SCOUTING REPORT
How they beat you: Ball-control offense and a paint-protecting defense that forces teams to hit perimeter shots. James and Homesley are a strong frontcourt pairing, and Cabbil is vastly improved on the offensive end and also the team's best 3-point threat, swishing 44 percent on the season. Liberty's pressure defense forces the opposition to abandon its half-court sets and try to make plays off the dribble. When forcing turnovers and snagging defensive rebounds, the Flames are an impressive unit.
How you beat them: Liberty struggled to score inside against taller, more athletic opponents such as Alabama and Georgetown. The Flames also shot worse than 30 percent on 3-pointers in nine games. Opposing guards who smoothly run the pick-and-roll created mismatches, forcing James or Baxter-Bell to step out and defend on the perimeter. The Flames were also exposed in one-on-one post defense situations.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 10.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 57th (110.7)
Defensive efficiency, 92nd (99.9)
3-point percentage, 68th (36.6)
3-point percentage D, 89th (32.9)
Free throw rate, 323rd (26.0)
Free throw rate D, 89th (32.9)
TO percentage, 76th (17.2)
TO percentage D, 55th (20.8)
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Second round
It's within reason to envision a scenario where Liberty makes shots early, builds a lead and avoids mistakes down the stretch to spring an upset. The Flames' ball-control offense isn't enjoyable to prepare for or play against, and James had 20 points against Alabama and 18 against Georgetown, so his game translates regardless the competition.
Worst-case scenario: One and done
The Flames can hang their reputation on stopping the opponent most nights, so it's hardly a surprise their six losses were also their six worst defensive performances of the season. Those games were also played at a brisker pace than Liberty prefers, in part because it committed an inordinate number of turnovers -- enabling opponents to cut loose in transition for easy points.