After a dismal season-opening loss to Duke, the Kentucky Wildcats have matured and evolved and enter the NCAA tournament as one of the favorites to win the national championship. Kentucky dealt with the absence of forward Reid Travis during the final five games of the regular season; however, he returned in the SEC tournament to bolster the Wildcats' frontcourt, playing 23 minutes vs. Alabama in the SEC quarterfinals. Can coach John Calipari's most recent batch of young talent navigate the bracket and clip the nets in Minneapolis?
ESPN+ has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: vs. North Carolina, at Auburn, vs. Tennessee, at Louisville
Worst losses: vs. Seton Hall, at Alabama
Regular season conference finish: Tied 2nd, SEC
Polls and metrics: BPI ranked the Wildcats at No. 7 as of March 12, while KenPom slotted coach Calipari's squad in ninth. The NCAA's new NET ranking showed Kentucky the most love, at No. 5 in its most recent release.
All-time tourney record: 128-52 (17 Final Fours, 8 national championships)
Coach (tourney record): John Calipari (53-18)
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 12.)
Starting lineup
F PJ Washington (14.9 PPG, 7.5 RPG)
F EJ Montgomery (3.8 PPG, 4.1 RPG)
G/F Keldon Johnson (13.7 PPG, 5.8 RPG)
G Ashton Hagans (7.8 PPG, 4.2 APG)
G Tyler Herro (14.2 PPG, 4.5 RPG)
Key bench players
F Nick Richards (3.8 PPG, 3.5 RPG)
F Reid Travis (11.3 PPG, 6.9 RPG)
G Immanuel Quickley (5.4 PPG, 1.8 RPG)
Biggest strength: The Wildcats are athletic, versatile and rarely overmatched in talent. They're elite on both ends of the court and dominant around the basket, collecting 36.6 percent of their missed shots (10th in nation) and limiting opponents to 44 percent on 2-point field goal attempts. They also swat 14 percent of the shots taken against them, ranking top 20 in that area as well.
Biggest weakness: The 3-point shot. While these Wildcats are more adept than some of their recent predecessors, hitting 35.9 percent, which is slightly better than the Division I average, the deep ball is still not their forte. Only 23.6 percent of their points come from beyond the arc (340th in the nation), although Washington and Johnson both shoot around 40 percent.
Best player: Washington, a 6-8, 228-pound forward, reached double figures in 15 of 16 games to close the regular season, earning first-team All-SEC honors. More than half of his 300 or so field goal attempts launched from spot-up or post-up scenarios. Washington hit 55 percent of 2s and knocked down 30 treys entering the SEC tournament.
X factor: Travis. When healthy, the graduate transfer from Stanford is the veteran presence the Wildcats sorely need in the frontcourt. While his absence allowed Washington to expand his game and gave the UK role players additional playing time, it's difficult to envision the Cats winning it all without Travis playing a prominent role. He's an elite offensive rebounder who draws 5.1 fouls per 40 minutes.
SCOUTING REPORT
How they beat you: By bludgeoning opponents with their size and controlling the glass. If the opportunity to run the fast break isn't available, the Wildcats are content letting the game grind to a deliberate pace because their defense improves as time on the shot clock dwindles. Hagans developed as a playmaker as the season unfolded, assisting on 27 percent of the Wildcats' baskets.
How you beat them: Catch the Wildcats on a rare poor defensive night. UK was 19-1 in the regular season when it held opponents to less than one point per possession and 7-4 when it allowed more than one PPP. The Wildcats' intensity waned at times, which can be attributed to their youth, and it's also no coincidence that their poor 3-point production and losing went hand-in-hand.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 12.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 13th (117.9)
Defensive efficiency, 8th (90.7)
3-point percentage, 99th (35.9)
3-point percentage D, 189th (34.7)
Free throw rate, 5th (43.4)
Free throw rate D, 23rd (26.4)
TO percentage, 186th (18.6)
TO percentage D, 159th (18.7)
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Final Four
Calipari has won 78 percent of his games as a Division I coach and 75 percent in the NCAA tournament. His teams generally improve over the course of the season, and it's easy to understand why he feels like this squad's best basketball is still to come. These Wildcats consistently win the scoring battle at the free throw line and in the paint, two dependable areas in a team's quest to advance through the bracket.
Worst-case scenario: First weekend exit
The harsh format of March Madness has no sympathy for youthful mistakes and the teams that commit them. If UK takes an opponent lightly, starts slowly or shoots poorly from the perimeter the team plane could be headed back to Lexington before the young Cats realize they've been eliminated.