A lot of bad things happened to Kansas and head coach Bill Self during the 2018-19 season. The Jayhawks' streak of 14 consecutive Big 12 titles ended. Standout center Udoka Azubuike played in just nine games before tearing ligaments in his right hand. Big man Silvio De Sousa was ruled ineligible for the year. Guard Lagerald Vick took a leave of absence in early February and missed the rest of the regular season.
KU limps into the postseason as barely an above-average team with a short bench and a sense it might be time to start thinking about 2019-20. Can the Jayhawks rekindle the magic and get on a hot tournament run?
ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: vs. Michigan State, vs. Villanova, vs. Kansas State
Worst loss: at West Virginia
Regular season conference finish: 3rd, Big 12
Polls and metrics: The BPI has the Jayhawks at 17, and KenPom agrees, slotting KU in the same spot.
All-time tourney record: 103-45
Coach's tourney record: Bill Self (47-19)
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 4.)
STARTING LINEUP
F Dedric Lawson (19.1 PPG, 10.6 RPG)
G Devon Dotson (11.7 PPG, 3.6 RPG)
G Ochai Agbaji (9.2 PPG, 4.9 RPG)
G Quentin Grimes (7.8 PPG, 2.4 RPG)
G Marcus Garrett (7.2 PPG, 3.6 RPG)
Key Bench Players
G Charlie Moore (3.1 PPG, 0.9 RPG)
G K.J. Lawson (3.1 PPG, 2.0 RPG)
F David McCormack (3.3 PPG, 2.6 RPG)
Biggest strength: Even though the Jayhawks have undergone significant struggles and are without a strong weapon like Vick, they can still score pretty efficiently. They shoot the ball well from 3-point range and are efficient inside the arc, too, hitting nearly 53 percent of their 2-point attempts. Even though their Big 12 numbers are down a bit, the Jayhawks are going to put some points on the board, and with the development of Ochai Agbaji, who had his redshirt taken off in January, they have given standout forward Dedric Lawson some help.
Biggest weakness: KU rivals must have worn out the tape of last year's Jayhawks face-plant in the Final Four against Villanova, when the Wildcats scorched the nets from deep, because they have gone at Kansas from behind the arc all season. Opponents make 34.3 percent of their triple tries, which isn't a good number for Kansas. Further, teams are averaging almost nine made treys a game, a substantial reason why KU was in the bottom half of the Big 12 in points allowed.
Best player: As Lawson sat out last year following his transfer to Lawrence from Memphis, fans salivated at the potential of his joining Vick and Azubuike as a fearsome trio. Though Lawson is the only one who remains, he is the best of the three. Lawson is tough to stop off the dribble and can do plenty of damage inside. He's a terrific rebounder at both ends and a good shot-blocker who can also get a steal a game. Lawson can pass some and brings a sturdy consistency to the top of the box score.
X factor: Self hadn't planned to use Agbaji this season, but injuries and other roster misfortunes forced him to insert the 6-5 freshman into the lineup, and Agbaji has helped considerably. He isn't the most accomplished long-range shooter or passer, but he can score off the dribble and rebounds well. He's not likely to dominate, but Agbaji has the talent and growing confidence to be dangerous in the tournament.
SCOUTING REPORT
How they beat you: The Jayhawks need to play at a high pace in order to be successful, although without Vick and without the capability to dominate the boards -- plus-2.0 rebounding margin -- they can't get rolling like they did over the first nine games of the season, when they scored 84 or more five times. Kansas needs Lawson to score 20 if it wants to have a chance, because the rest of the lineup is not filled with accomplished scorers. Expect the Jayhawks to run a lot of sets to free Lawson and to put him in favorable matchups. Teams that don't adjust will endure his wrath.
How you beat them: It's pretty clear, isn't it? Stop Lawson. If someone else on the roster explodes for 20, then so be it. But letting Lawson get rolling is just an unwise thing to do. He's going to take a lot of shots and have the ball in his hands a lot. So, hit him with everything. Double-team him, box-and-one him and have an extra defender ready to pounce at all times. Kansas is a team with little offensive balance, so it makes sense to go after the big producer. It is also good to crowd the Jayhawks when they get the ball, because they will turn it over a pretty good amount.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 4.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 31st (113.4)
Defensive efficiency, 14h (92.4)
3-point percentage, 113th (35.5)
3-point percentage D, 136th (33.8)
Free throw rate, 174th (33.5)
Free throw rate D, 38th (27.3)
TO percentage, 195th (18.7)
TO percentage D, 151st (18.9)
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Round of 16
Stranger things have happened than a team's shaking off a disappointing end to the season and getting hot in the tournament. But this looks like a club that has had enough and is unlikely to make much of a run. Kansas will be seeded high, and it should make the second weekend. Anything more will come courtesy of some upsets at the top of the bracket.
Worst-case scenario: Opening-round loss
The Jayhawks run into a hungry team with some strong, long defenders who can take turns pestering Lawson and get bounced in the second round. A rival hits the boards, especially at the offensive end, and prevents KU from getting going at a fast pace and then sends Self's bunch home the first weekend by stifling Lawson and, by extension, the Kansas attack.