Iowa State players and head coach Steve Prohm tried to sound upbeat after the Cyclones dropped their season finale against Texas Tech, making it six losses in the final eight games for ISU. But it's hard to look at the 'Clones as the same team that started the season 18-5. They still have an extremely dynamic player in Marial Shayok and an efficient offense, but they became vulnerable at the other end late in the season, and that contributed mightily to the 2-6 slide.
ISU has weapons and skill, but if its defense continues to struggle, will it find the significant burst necessary for tournament success?
ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel, and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: at Kansas State, at Texas Tech
Worst loss: at West Virginia, vs. TCU
Regular-season conference finish: 5th, Big 12
Polls and metrics: The BPI ranks the Cyclones 20th, and KenPom has them 21st in the nation.
All-time tourney record: 19-19
Coach's tourney record: Steve Prohm, 4-3
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 4.)
STARTING LINEUP
G Marial Shayok (18.7 PPG, 5.1 RPG)
G Michael Jacobson (11.6 PPG, 5.6 RPG)
G Talen Horton-Tucker (12.2 PPG, 5.1 RPG)
G Nick Weiler-Babb (9.2 PPG, 4.8 RPG)
F Michael Jacobson (11.6 PPG, 5.6 RPG)
Key bench players
G Lindell Wigginton (13.4 PPG, 4.1 RPG)
F Cameron Lard (5.9 PPG, 2.8 RPG)
G Terrence Lewis (4.6 PPG, 1.1 RPG)
Biggest strength: Although the Cyclones staggered down the stretch, they remain a strong offensive team with a variety of ways to beat you. ISU shoots extremely well (36.2%) from beyond the 3-point line and is able to work well close to the basket, too. In Shayok, the Cyclones have a player who can score at all three levels, and that puts significant pressure on the defense. Just as important are the distributing abilities of guards Weiler-Babb and Tyrese Haliburton. The Cyclones share the ball well and don't turn it over, which is a big reason they are one of the nation's most efficient teams.
Biggest weakness: The 'Clones aren't a great rebounding team, and that could be a problem. Their defensive rebounding percentage (.702) is ninth in the Big 12, something that could hurt against athletic front lines in the tournament's later rounds. No ISU player averages six boards a game, and Iowa State isn't all that strong on the offensive boards, either. With only one starter taller than 6-foot-5, this is a team that is vulnerable in the rebounding department.
Best player: There can be no doubt ... it's Shayok. He's a dynamic presence capable of scoring in so many ways. He is a fine 3-point shooter but is not someone who needs to hang on the perimeter. His 6-foot-6 frame makes him tough to handle off the dribble, and he has an accomplished midrange game. Shayok is a terrific free throw shooter (87.7%) and a good rebounder who can get on the offensive boards. He is a solid defender, but if he has one downside, it's that he turns the ball over -- a lot.
X factor: An early-season foot injury prevented Wigginton from grabbing a spot in the starting lineup, but it's probably best that he comes off the bench because he provides a big boost offensively. He can hit the 3, but he is also solid inside the arc and can make it to the free throw line often -- and convert. Wigginton averages only 25.7 minutes per game, but he is the team's second-leading scorer and a weapon who can cause trouble for opposing reserve units.
SCOUTING REPORT
How they beat you: The Cyclones aren't interested in running like crazy, but they definitely want to be an active offensive team and make a run at 80 points. They aren't going to shoot every 15 seconds, but this team can put up points from all over, and because its defense hasn't been so great in the past month, it will need to. Shayok is the main focal point of the offense, but Weiler-Babb and Haliburton handle the ball a lot and do a good job distributing and avoiding turnovers. They will look for Shayok off screens and are good options on the perimeter when defenses collapse on him. Jacobson is a good option inside, and Horton-Tucker can hit the bomb but also work on the move.
How you beat them: Defensively, it starts with Shayok. Although the Cyclones have other offensive options and a bunch of good 3-point shooters, controlling him is paramount. Of course, it isn't a good idea to focus all of a team's attention on him because three other ISU players shoot better than 36 percent from behind the arc. As such, while it's important to make sure Shayok doesn't get comfortable, rotating to prevent open 3s is also vital. During its rough late-season stretch, Iowa State struggled defensively and gave up more than 85 points three times in eight games. This team isn't huge, so it's possible to succeed inside against it, and it isn't that quick along the perimeter, so 3-point opportunities will present themselves. Finally, it's important to hit the boards hard. This isn't a great rebounding team.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 4.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 10th (118.4)
Defensive efficiency, 68th (98.2)
3-point percentage, 81st (36.2)
3-point percentage D, 178th (34.3)
Free throw rate, 269th (29.9)
Free throw rate D, 9th (24.3)
TO percentage, 26th (16.0)
TO percentage D, 143rd (19.1)
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Round of 16
The Cyclones' offense gets rolling, and two first-weekend teams can't stop the multipronged attack, leading to Iowa State scoring enough points to negate its shortcomings on defense and the backboards. The result is a ticket to the second weekend, where more success will rely on a fractured bracket or Shayok's star power.
Worst-case scenario: Opening round loss
Iowa State runs into a team that can hit the boards hard, is quick on the perimeter in order to limit ISU's 3-point tries and has the athletic ability to run multiple defenders at Shayok, thereby short-circuiting the keys to the Iowa State attack.