The 20-game Big Ten schedule seems like a good idea on paper, but the combo platter of top-notch foes, excellent coaches and the sheer number of games played in a hostile environment makes for a grueling undertaking. And that grind appeared to get the best of the Iowa Hawkeyes late in the 2018-19 season. Fran McCaffery's squad limped to the finish line, dropping its final four Big Ten regular-season contests and continuing a recent trend of late-season slides that some fans have dubbed the annual "Fran Fade." They enter the NCAA tourney with an impressive résumé overall and a high-octane offense, but with serious questions about their ability to stop other teams.
Can McCaffrey add "defense" to his team's collective vocabulary or will the Hawkeyes simply look to outscore its tournament opponents?
ESPN+ has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: Oregon, vs. Iowa State, vs. Ohio State, vs. Michigan, Indiana (twice)
Worst losses: vs. Rutgers, at Nebraska
Regular season conference finish: 4th, Big Ten
Polls and metrics: Iowa's late-season swoon resulted in the Hawkeyes tumbling to No. 43 in the all-important NET rankings.
All-time tourney record: 29-27, three Final Fours
Coach (tourney record): Fran McCaffery (4-8)
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 14.)
Starting lineup
F Luka Garza (13.0 PPG, 4.6 RPG)
F Tyler Cook (15.0 PPG, 8.1 RPG)
G Joe Wieskamp (11.0 PPG, 4.8 RPG)
G Isaiah Moss (9.1 PPG, 2.8 RPG)
G Jordan Bohannon (11.8 PPG, 3.4 APG)
Key bench players
F Nicholas Baer (6.6 PPG, 4.6 RPG)
C Connor McCaffery (4.7 PPG, 2.9 RPG)
F Ryan Kriener (5.6 PPG, 3.1 RPG)
Biggest strengths: The Hawkeyes prefer to play at a NASCAR-like pace, averaging 79 points. They have a quartet of double-figure scorers in Cook, Garza, Bohannon and Wieskamp, plus some proven pop off the bench. So McCaffery subs liberally, hoping he'll wear opponents down at the end of each half.
Biggest weakness: Shaky defense. Iowa is one of those teams that wants to simply outscore its opponents, a la the Houston Rockets. The Hawkeyes are not a lockdown defensive team. Instead, they try to increase the tempo with some three-quarter court, 1-2-2 pressure before falling back into a zone defense.
Best players: Garza and Cook form a nice inside tag-team tandem for the Hawkeyes. The 6-foot-11 Garza has a really bright future, and Cook can flat-out score but sometimes is a bit of a black hole in the low post as the ball goes into him and doesn't come back out.
X factor: Opponents who devote too much manpower to stopping Garza and Cook often get burned by the outside shooting of Bohannon and Wieskamp. Bohannon plays with swagger and possesses the clutch gene. He often takes and makes long-distance shots at critical times for the Hawkeyes. Wieskamp has been a revelation as a freshman, figuring out the college game quickly and averaging in double figures in his first season.
SCOUTING REPORT
How they beat you: The Hawkeyes get the best of teams with their offensive firepower. Four of the team's five starters average in double figures and the fifth starter (Moss) is close at 9.1 PPG. Because they score so easily, McCaffery wisely wants to rev up the game's tempo to a first-one-to-85-wins pace. The Hawkeyes' attacking style, plus the presence of inside scorers Cook and Garza, has a hidden benefit: Iowa parades to the foul line almost every game as evidenced by its whopping 43.5 free throw rate.
How you beat them: You out-tough them. With only one senior in its rotation (6-7 forward Baer), Iowa sometimes lacks the grit and experience to make the needed stops on defense or to keep an ultra-athletic opposing big man off the offensive glass.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 13.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 15th (117.0)
Defensive efficiency, 122nd (101.5)
3-point percentage, 82nd (36.3)
3-point percentage D, 70th (32.5)
Free throw rate, 6th (43.5)
Free throw rate D, 81st (29.6)
TO percentage, 81st (17.2)
TO percentage D, 173rd (18.5)
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Sweet 16
Averaging 79 points as a team playing in the rough-and-tumble Big Ten is no small feat. So the Hawkeyes will light up the scoreboard in the Big Dance. If they get enough stops, then they rewrite the "Fran Fade" narrative with a couple of NCAA tourney wins.
Worst-case scenario: One and done
Teams want to be playing their best basketball in March, and frankly, Iowa isn't even close. Their confidence appears shaken. So they'll need a quick start offensively or an early exit is quite possible.