The Houston Cougars endured one of the most gut-wrenching losses of the 2018 NCAA tournament when they went out on a second-round buzzer-beater to eventual runner-up Michigan. How did Kelvin Sampson's guys respond? Only by eclipsing last season's win total and grabbing an outright conference title for the first time in 35 years, of course. Can the Cougars live up to their regular-season hype and carry it over to a run to Minneapolis?
ESPN+ has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: vs. LSU, vs. Oregon, vs. Temple, at UCF, Cincinnati (twice)
Worst losses: None
Regular season conference finish: 1st, American
Polls and metrics: BPI ranked the Cougars at No. 14 as of March 10, while KenPom had them one spot higher at No. 13. The NCAA's new NET ranking had Houston at No. 4 in its most recent release.
All-time tourney record: 27-25 (5 Final Fours)
Coach (tourney record): Kelvin Sampson (13-15, 1 Final Four)
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 10.)
Starting lineup
F Fabian White Jr. (6.3 PPG, 3.4 RPG)
F Breaon Brady (6.2 PPG, 4.1 RPG)
G Armoni Brooks (13.7 PPG, 6.5 RPG)
G Galen Robinson Jr. (7.8 PPG, 5.1 APG)
G Corey Davis Jr. (16.6 PPG, 2.9 APG)
Key bench players
F Cedrick Alley Jr. (5.3 PPG, 3.1 RPG)
G Nate Hinton (7.6 PPG, 4.5 RPG)
G Dejon Jarreau (9.2 PPG, 3.3 APG)
Biggest strength: Look at the Cougars' numbers and you'll see there isn't much they don't do well. Houston enters the field with one of the most efficient offenses in the country, combined with a shutdown man-to-man defense, particularly on the 3-point line. Davis, Brooks and the underappreciated Robinson combine to form one of the best backcourts in the country. The trio probably deserves more attention than it is getting.
Biggest weakness: Fouling and dependence on the 3. Houston ranks in the bottom 80 in the country in opposition free throw rate, much of which points to its physical brand of D. Nearly 37 percent of the Coogs' scoring comes from the 3-point line, meaning if Sampson's guys have an off night from the perimeter, they might have to make up for it in areas where their comfort level isn't quite as high.
Best player: The juco transfer Davis has worked to become the best two-way player in the American and embraced his role as the Cougars' go-to guy with the graduation of two-time first-team all-conference selection Rob Gray. If there's a big play to be made late in the game, chances are the senior isn't far away.
X factor: Jarreau. The UMass transfer has overcome the deaths of two family members and early-season injuries to be a huge part of the Cougars' success. Sampson has said the wiry guard's game still has another level to it, one that he only has seen in practice. The bright lights of March Madness might just bring that out in Houston's sixth man.
SCOUTING REPORT
How they beat you: Houston's efficiency at both ends makes it a really tough out. Sampson's bunch takes care of the basketball and grinds out its possessions in order to get the best possible shot. Combine that with a defense that rarely has a bad day in the paint or on the perimeter and the Cougars simply wear you down. A war of attrition is one they're not likely to lose.
How you beat them: The formula in both of Houston's losses was simple: Get to the basket and to the line. Temple and UCF used all-league caliber guards to give UH fits, and each earned 20-plus trips to the charity stripe. If an opponent can withstand the Cougars' physicality and neutralize it with made free throws, it has a shot to pull off a win.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 10.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 19th (115.4)
Defensive efficiency, 15th (93.0)
3-point percentage, 76th (36.4)
3-point percentage D, 3rd (28.3)
Free throw rate, 216th (32.0)
Free throw rate D, 276th (37.1)
TO percentage, 73rd (17.1)
TO percentage D, 178th (18.4)
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Final Four
The Cougars have all the pieces to suggest they can make a deep run in this year's field. Their balance at both ends of the floor combined with the painful (and ultimately fresh) memories of Jordan Poole's buzzer-beater should serve as the necessary motivation to vault them to their furthest trip since Phi Slama Jama.
Worst-case scenario: Second-round exit
The biggest roadblock those outside the top two seed lines face in this year's field is the depth and parity among the teams who didn't end up in those spots. There isn't much difference between a 3-seed and a 6-seed. This suggests Houston's second-round matchup could be a tough hill to climb. A veteran backcourt equipped to deal with the Cougars' stingy defense could send them home early.