The Fairleigh Dickinson Knights suffered a 25-point home beatdown to St. Francis (Pa.) in mid-February, dropping to 12-13 on the season. But they've not lost since, rattling off eight straight wins (by an average of 13.5 points) en route to a share of the NEC regular-season title and the conference championship (which they won on St. Francis' home floor). Can the Knights ride the magic carpet into the tournament and slay a giant?
ESPN+ has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: at Princeton, St. Francis PA (twice), Army
Worst losses: Central Connecticut State, Lafayette, at Wagner
Regular season conference finish: T-1st, NEC
Polls and metrics: BPI ranked the Knights at No. 191 as of March 13, while KenPom had them slightly lower at No. 211. The NCAA's new NET ranking had Fairleigh Dickinson at No. 203 in its most recent release.
All-time tourney record: 0-5
Coach (tourney record): Greg Herenda, 0-1
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 13.)
Starting lineup
F Kaleb Bishop (10.1 PPG, 6.3 RPG)
F Mike Holloway Jr. (12.5 PPG, 5.5 RPG)
G Xzavier Malone-Key (11.4 PPG, 3.9 RPG)
G Darnell Edge (16.4 PPG, 2.4 APG)
G Jahlil Jenkins (13.5 PPG, 4.5 APG)
Key bench players
F Elyjah Williams (5.1 PPG, 5.3 RPG)
F Nadi Beciri (5.0 PPG, 2.5 RPG)
G Brandon Powell (2.1 PPG, 0.7 APG)
Biggest strength: Jump shooting. Fairleigh Dickinson ranks fifth nationally in 3-point field goal percentage (40.3) and grades in the 97th percentile in points per play on jump shots (1.1). First-team All-NEC selection Edge led the conference in 3-point shooting (46.9 percent) and knocked down more than three on eight occasions this season. The Knights went 7-1 in those games.
Biggest weakness: Interior defense. No player in the Fairleigh Dickinson rotation stands above 6-foot-8, which makes the team susceptible to opponents with superior length. The Knights ranked last in the NEC in defensive rebound percentage (67.5), which allows opponents to benefit from high-percentage, second-chance opportunities. They graded in the third percentile nationally in points per play allowed on post-ups (0.99), which directly correlates to their lack of length down low.
Best player: Edge. He owns the fourth-highest scoring average (16.4) in the nation among players to shoot 45 percent from beyond the arc. And his jumper is not his only weapon. Edge is a lethal spot-up shooter but also thrives in transition and uses off-ball screens effectively. He shoots more than 40 percent against man and zone, so opposing teams rarely mix the right potion to render him inefficient.
X factor: Malone-Key. He is arguably the Knights' best athlete and thrives in transition as a ball handler or floor runner. He is also an underrated catch-and-shoot option, ranking in the 84th percentile nationally in points-per-play on those attempts (1.23). The bad news is he last played March 2 because of injury and his status remains uncertain. If the Knights are without him in the NCAA tournament, their likelihood of advancing is greatly reduced.
SCOUTING REPORT
How they beat you: Fairleigh Dickinson plays at a fairly deliberate pace (68.4 possessions per game) because it rarely settles early in the shot clock. The Knights are willing to pass up good shots for great ones, and convert at an efficient rate on unguarded attempts (1.26 points per play, 88th percentile). They do not defend terribly well, but the quickness and ball pressure of their guards produce easy scoring opportunities in transition off opposing turnovers (which they force on 21 percent of possessions).
How you beat them: The Knights struggle against opponents that close out effectively and contest jump shots at a high percentage. The bread and butter is jumpers, and the offense becomes pedestrian when it's going two-at-a-time using penetration rather than passing to create shots. On the other side, teams exploit Fairleigh Dickinson by using the pick-and-roll and crashing the offensive glass off misses.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 13.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 138th (106.2)
Defensive efficiency, 294th (110.4)
3-point percentage, 5th (40.3)
3-point percentage D, 179th (34.2)
Free throw rate, 109th (35.4)
Free throw rate D, 106th (30.2)
TO percentage, 238th (19.4)
TO percentage D, 69th (20.4)
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: One win
Fairleigh Dickinson has played inspired basketball the last month, and it's a good enough 3-point shooting team to pull off a stunner. At full strength, the Knights possess a phalanx of high-percentage shooters and wreak enough havoc on defense to advance beyond the first round.
Worst-case scenario: One and done
The Knights have never advanced in the NCAA tournament and their average loss has come by 14 points, so there's no good reason to believe that narrative will shift this year. The lack of depth coupled with obvious holes on defense is likely to be their undoing.