Every year, five-star hoops phenoms flock to Durham to attend Coach K's finishing school, where Mike Krzyzewski molds these young stars into a team. But this year was a bit different as Zion Williamson, a Paul Bunyan in high-tops, showed up in Durham and took college basketball and social media by storm with his NFL frame (6-7, 285) and rim-rattling game. With Williamson in the lineup, the Duke Blue Devils went 23-2 against a take-on-all-comers schedule, with the two losses being to Gonzaga (by two) and Syracuse (in overtime). But then one of Williamson's Nikes exploded vs. North Carolina and he sprained his knee. For the six games Williamson was sidelined, the Blue Devils went 3-3. But the human-highlight film returned for the ACC tourney and was his old, eye-popping self. With Zion back on the floor and looking better than ever, will the Blue Devils deliver Coach K his sixth national title?
ESPN+ has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: Virginia (twice), Kentucky, Texas Tech, Auburn, at Florida State, at Louisville, North Carolina in the ACC semifinals
Worst losses: None
Regular season conference finish: 3rd, ACC
Polls and metrics: Duke is one of the nation's best teams by any metric you choose: No. 3 in NET rankings and in the top five in both the AP and the Coaches' polls.
All-time tourney record: 111-37 (5 national championships)
Coach (tourney record): Mike Krzyzewski (94-29)
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 15.)
Starting lineup
C Marques Bolden (5.8 PPG, 4.7 RPG)
F Zion Williamson (22.2 PPG, 9.1 RPG)
F Cam Reddish (13.8 PPG, 3.7 RPG)
G RJ Barrett (23.1 PPG, 4.2 APG)
G Tre Jones (9.0 PPG, 5.3 APG)
Key bench players
G Alex O'Connell (4.6 PPG, 1.8 RPG)
F Jack White (4.5 PPG, 5.1 RPG)
F Javin DeLaurier (3.7 PPG, 4.1 RPG)
Biggest strength: Coach K has the luxury of having three NBA lottery picks in his starting five in Williamson, Barrett and Reddish. The high-flying Williamson is the headliner, for sure, with a rare combination of freakish athleticism, unmatched strength and a tireless work ethic. The lefty Barrett is a natural scorer who is deadly both in transition and in Duke's dribble weave and flip sets. Reddish might be the most skilled of the trio, but often defers to Duke's two alpha males, Williamson and Barrett. If that weren't enough to worry about, freshman point guard Jones has an NBA pedigree (his brother Tyus plays for the Minnesota Timberwolves) and willingly shares the ball.
Biggest weakness: One of the only places that Duke's teen hoop prodigies look human is behind the 3-point arc. During the regular season, Duke shot just .306 as a team from bonus land. In a close game, that scattershot aim could cost them.
Best players: Williamson and Barrett entered the college ranks with mammoth expectations, and they've exceeded them. Williamson, the 2019 ACC Rookie and Player of the Year, finished among the ACC leaders in scoring (22.2 PPG), rebounding (9.1), field goal percentage (.695), steals (2.3) and blocked shots (1.8). Barrett is an insane scorer off the bounce, blessed with a long wingspan, a killer Euro step, and a stone-cold killer mentality. Does he sometimes channel his inner-James Harden and not share enough with others? Sure, but Barrett is a future pro and would be the Cameron Crazies' first love if not for the one-named wonder Zion.
X factor: The health of Bolden. Just when Duke welcomed Williamson back, Bolden, the team's starting center, sprained the MCL in his left knee. The 6-11 Bolden had a team-best 55 blocks before the injury and is an underrated puzzle piece for Coach K. With him as a last line of defense, the Blue Devils can have Jones apply dogged ball pressure on opposing point guards and can overplay the wings with the long-armed duo of Reddish and Barrett, taking comfort in the fact that Bolden is an ace rim protector. If Bolden can't go, then look for DeLaurier to start up front.
SCOUTING REPORT
How they beat you: Duke employs a time-tested recipe for success. Coach K prepares his young charges for March by taking on some brand-name, RPI-enhancing foes like Gonzaga, Kentucky, Indiana, St. John's and Texas Tech before heading into the annual ACC meat grinder. By season's end, Duke's talented, young pups are toughened up and ready to make a deep foray in the win-or-go-home Big Dance.
How you beat them: Your to-do list is lengthy: Somehow keep Williamson from going off and make Duke shoot contested jumpers, get some easy baskets in transition yourself, and bring your A-game defensively as Duke's roster is littered with future NBA millionaires.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 10.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 6th (120.2)
Defensive efficiency, 7th (88.3)
3-point percentage, 330th (30.6)
3-point percentage D, 7th (29.2)
Free throw rate, 143rd (34.5)
Free throw rate D, 5th (23.6)
TO percentage, 98th (17.5)
TO percentage D, 88th (20.0)
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: National title
Duke's starting five is the most talent-laden quintet in the tournament, led by the dynamic duo of Williamson and Barrett. In putting his stamp on the just-completed ACC tourney, Williamson looked more efficient than Marie Kondo cleaning up a frat house. He's the best player in the college game. Plus, Durham is home to one of the finest coaches in the history of sports in Krzyzewski. Add that all together and Duke looks like the grab-the-scissors-and-cut-down-the-nets favorite.
Worst-case scenario: Sweet 16
Duke is as much a part of March Madness as 5-12 upsets and office pools. Given their ubertalented starting five, the healthy return of Williamson, a Hall of Fame coach and favorable seeding, it's hard to envision them not making it to at least the Sweet 16.