The Colgate Raiders return to the nation's biggest stage with their first NCAA tournament appearance since the days of Adonal Foyle and the late Jack Bruen 23 years ago. Matt Langel's squad blew the doors off defending champ Bucknell in the Patriot League title game and has all the tools to pull off an upset special. Can Gate join the Bison in the annals of tournament lore as a giant killer?
ESPN+ has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: Bucknell (twice), Lehigh (twice)
Worst losses: at NJIT, at Loyola MD, at Navy
Regular season conference finish: 1st, Patriot
Polls and metrics: BPI ranked the Raiders at No. 136 as of March 10, while KenPom had them slightly higher at No. 129. The NCAA's new NET ranking had Colgate at No. 131 in its most recent release.
All-time tourney record: 0-2
Coach (tourney record): Matt Langel (0-0)
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 10.)
Starting lineup
C Dana Batt (7.0 PPG, 3.4 RPG)
F Rapolas Ivanauskas (16.4 PPG, 7.9 RPG)
F Will Rayman (13.1 PPG, 6.4 RPG)
G Jordan Burns (15.8 PPG, 5.8 APG)
G Tucker Richardson (8.0 PPG, 3.8 APG)
Key bench players
G Francisco Amiel (3.1 PPG, 2.0 RPG)
G Jack Ferguson (7.2 PPG, 1.8 RPG)
F Malcolm Regisford (6.6 PPG, 3.6 RPG)
Biggest strength: The Raiders are one of the most highly skilled offensive teams that you likely know nothing about. Colgate ranks in the top 15 in the country in 3-point percentage and its lineup is a mismatch waiting to happen. All five of Colgate's starters can knock down the 3, leaving opposing defenses in an uncomfortable spot because it's hard to determine who to focus on.
Biggest weakness: Turnovers. Colgate has a tendency to get careless with the basketball, which has led to them giving it away on almost 20 percent of their possessions. Their strength is also a weakness in that they depend on points from 3 way too much. Thirty-six percent of their points come from beyond the arc, meaning one off night could spell the end of their season.
Best player: Ivanauskas. Good luck trying to find someone who can limit the Northwestern transfer and Patriot League Player of the Year. The Lithuanian possesses all the attributes of a classic Euro big. He loves operating on the block with some of the best footwork in college hoops and is a relentless rebounder. That's before we talk about his 43 percent 3-point percentage. The guy who watched tape of Sarunas Marciulionis growing up is ready for more national exposure, and if the Raiders pull an upset, his name is likely to be all over it.
X factor: Burns. Folks in Hamilton can thank their lucky stars that the former Patriot League All-Rookie selection decommitted from D-II Midwestern State and found his way to Langel. It's not a surprise that the explosive guard's return from a bone bruise in his lower leg in early February has coincided with the Raiders' 11-game win streak. He's their distributor, best free throw shooter, and a deadeye from the outside. Burns erupted for 34 in the Patriot League title game against Bucknell, hinting that even bigger moments might still lie ahead.
SCOUTING REPORT
How they beat you: With offensive discipline and efficiency. Four of Colgate's starters shoot 37 percent or better from 3, making it really hard to double anyone. Ivanauskas, Rayman and Burns are all capable of getting 30 on a given night and have been rotating the hot hand all year. Colgate's size and perimeter numbers make it a tough scout because bigs that aren't used to defending the 3-point line are forced to step out.
How you beat them: Turn them over and build a comfortable working margin. You have to go back to early February for the last time the Raiders lost a game. BU forced Colgate into eight first half giveaways and took a 13-point lead into the break. An off night from the outside where they don't take care of the basketball is the Raiders' worst nightmare.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 15.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 61st (110.1)
Defensive efficiency, 204th (105.8)
3-point percentage, 13th (39.1)
3-point percentage D, 144th (33.9)
Free throw rate, 284th (28.9)
Free throw rate D, 63rd (28.6)
TO percentage, 231st (19.3)
TO percentage D, 215th (18.0)
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Second round
Colgate has the right blend of scoring, size and perimeter prowess to make things very difficult in its opening round matchup. If the Raiders can start fast and not turn it over, they have a chance to pull an upset. Langel's team enters the field playing its best hoops at the right time, always a dangerous proposition for those facing a mid-major from one of the highest basketball (and overall) IQ leagues in the country.
Worst-case scenario: One-and-done
Their lack of strength of schedule suggests their stay could be short-lived. Colgate played only three teams inside the KenPom top 100 and lost handily to all three. The Raiders' first round matchup will be their toughest test since before the start of conference play, and the level of game and the size of the moment might be too much to overcome.