The Cincinnati Bearcats enter the Big Dance as one of the most physical teams in the country, an identity crafted for years under coach Mick Cronin. After a hard-fought regular-season campaign that saw the Bearcats sandwiched in between Houston and UCF in the battle for supremacy in the American Athletic Conference, they're primed for their ninth straight tournament appearance.
Is the Bearcats defensive prowess enough to lead them on a run into the second weekend?
ESPN+ has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: vs. Ole Miss, Xavier, at Temple, at Memphis, UCF, Memphis
Worst losses: at East Carolina
Regular-season conference finish: 2nd, American
Polls and metrics: BPI ranked the Bearcats at No. 30 as of March 10, while KenPom had them slightly lower at No. 34. The NCAA's new NET ranking had Cincinnati at No. 27 in its most recent release.
All-time tourney record: 46-31 (6 Final Fours, 2 national championships)
Coach (tourney record): Mick Cronin (6-10)
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 10.)
Starting lineup
C Nysier Brooks (8.0 PPG, 1.5 BPG)
F Tre Scott (8.9 PPG, 6.6 RPG)
G Keith Williams (10.6 PPG, 3.2 RPG)
G Justin Jenifer (8.2 PPG, 2.9 APG)
G Jarron Cumberland (18.4 PPG, 3.5 APG)
Key bench players
G/F Rashawn Fredericks (2.4 PPG, 2.3 RPG)
G Trevor Moore (2.5 PPG, 1.4 RPG)
G Cane Broome (8.1 PPG, 2.4 APG)
Biggest strength: Cronin has built his program around defense, a large part of the reason that Cincinnati is dancing for the ninth straight time. The Bearcats can win almost any type of game, but their lifeblood comes from using their big, athletic bodies to hold opponents under 60 points. Field goals inside the arc are hard to come by, meaning their opponents have to be uber-efficient everywhere else to have a chance. They're also one of the nation's best offensive rebounding teams and live at the foul line.
Biggest weakness: The Bearcats play a lot of guys but there's a steady drop-off after Cumberland. He has to shoulder the offensive load most nights with help from Williams. Their 3-point options also remain limited, something that could prove costly if they have to knock down a big perimeter shot late. There's also so much focus on the interior defensively that they're often susceptible to long nights giving up the 3.
Best player: Cumberland. The unanimous first-team all-conference selection from the tiny town of Wilmington, Ohio, finds himself as the focal point of an opponent's defensive scouting report night in and night out. He leads the Bearcats in scoring and assists, and his production is astounding considering how much attention he's getting -- especially on nights when the whistle isn't blowing. Think 2014 Sean Kilpatrick with a slightly better supporting cast.
X factor: Williams. The Bearcats' slasher gets a lot of his points on sheer athletic ability but is capable of knocking down the timely big shot. They'll need him to do just that when someone inevitably finds a way to neutralize Cumberland. The sophomore's consistency might determine whether Cincy can survive and advance.
SCOUTING REPORT
How they beat you: Their patience at both ends of the floor. The American regular season runner-up isn't in a hurry to move the ball or have its opponents shoot. Cincy's lack of tempo at both ends of the floor can make a low-scoring game very likely, an exhausting proposition for opponents who are used to getting points much faster and easier.
How you beat them: The Bearcats physicality down low makes them susceptible to giving up the perimeter. Cincy's opponents get 39 percent of their points from beyond the arc, the 12th most in the country. Consider the conference regular-season finale against Houston. The Cougars moved the ball to the tune of 12 made 3s. Cutting off the foul line doesn't hurt either. Cronin's guys are the 35th-most reliant team in D1 on points from the line.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 10.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 60th (110.4)
Defensive efficiency, 25th (94.2)
3-point percentage, 167th (34.5)
3-point percentage D, 235th (35.5)
Free throw rate, 46th (38.2)
Free throw rate D, 120th (30.7)
TO percentage, 40th (16.3)
TO percentage D, 34th (21.4)
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Second weekend
Cincy is battle-tested and has shown the ability to win in tight spots, with 10 of their 25 regular-season victories decided by six points or fewer. The Bearcats' experience, depth and knock-you-down, drag-you-out street fight defense could suggest they're built to win a couple of games, maybe even one that might be considered over this group's head. If officials are blowing whistles like its November rather than March, then Cincy has the chance to be dangerous.
Worst-case scenario: Second-round exit
The way they closed the regular season lends itself to the idea that the Bearcats are living on borrowed time. Cincinnati's reliance on Cumberland and the foul line unfortunately doesn't make for a great formula to stick around past opening weekend. Someone will shut down the all-conference selection and keep him from getting his usual numbers. Cincy doesn't have the scoring depth to sustain that kind of blow and will head home when it happens.