In a college hoops landscape littered with first-rate mid-majors, the Buffalo Bulls seem perfectly equipped to ruin their fair share of office pools this March. Head coach Nate Oats has a tenacious team featuring more seniors than a midafternoon Boca Raton buffet. The Bulls have one of the nation's most prolific offenses and compete with a blue-collar grit that mirrors the town in which the school is located. That never-back-down attitude has allowed them to deliver a bracket-busting blow to Arizona in last year's NCAA Tournament and upend brand-name programs West Virginia and Syracuse on the road this season.
After taking out future millionaire Deandre Ayton and Arizona in their opening game last March, is Buffalo poised for a deeper NCAA tourney run in 2019?
ESPN+ has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel, and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: at West Virginia, at Syracuse
Worst losses: at Northern Illinois, at Bowling Green
Regular-season conference finish: 1st, Mid-American (East Division)
Polls and metrics: Name a metric, and Buffalo is near the top of the charts. At the end of the MAC regular season, the Bulls were ranked No. 19 in the coaches' poll, No. 16 in the all-important NET and No. 23 in the BPI.
All-time tourney record: 1-4
Coach (tourney record): Nate Oats (1-2)
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 10.)
Starting lineup
F Montell McRae (6.2 PPG, 3.5 RPG)
G Jeremy Harris (13.3 PPG, 6.1 RPG)
G CJ Massinburg (18.5 PPG, 6.4 RPG)
G Jayvon Graves (9.5 PPG, 4.1 RPG)
G Davonta Jordan (7.2 PPG, 3.7 APG)
Key bench players
F Nick Perkins (14.9 PPG, 7.3 RPG)
G Dontay Caruthers (8.8 PPG, 3.2 RPG)
F Jeenathan Williams (3.3 PPG, 1.7 RPG)
Biggest strength: The Bulls don't need the Waze app to find their way to the hoop. They average 85 points per game and feature a troika of senior double-figure scorers in Massinburg, Perkins and Harris. Like most college teams, Buffalo prefers to play at NASCAR-type speeds. But if you successfully slow the running of the Bulls, then Oats opens his complex playbook, and the team has the necessary experience (five seniors in his eight-man rotation) to run his NBA-like sets effectively.
Biggest weakness: As many grooms-to-be learn at their bachelor parties, a shot-every-20-seconds pace can have its downside. The Bulls want to rev the tempo,, and that can result in ill-advised shots, fueling extended runs by the other team (e.g., Buffalo shot 7-for-31 from 3-point land in last year's 20-point loss to Kentucky in the Big Dance's Round of 32).
Best players: In Buffalo, a city known for its wings, the Bulls have two sweet ones on their roster in Massinburg and Harris. Massinburg, a Dallas native who had just one Division I offer (Prairie View A&M) before Oats spotted him, has blossomed into one of the best mid-major players in the land. The lefty Harris, a juco gem, is a matchup nightmare because he has guard skills in a 6-foot-7 body. Throw in the super sixth man Perkins, an All-MAC selection who is built like an NFL defensive end (6-foot-8, 250 pounds), and Oats has plenty of options to dial up offensively.
X factor: The Bulls' length at every position. Oats has an eight-man rotation of long-limbed, midsized athletes, which allows them to switch every screen and not be caught in terrible mismatches. Buffalo's dogged D is this team's secret sauce, as the Bulls are one of only a few teams residing in the top 35 of the KenPom rankings in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Buffalo is particularly adept at defending the 3-point line, allowing opponents to make just 30 percent of their 3-point tries.
SCOUTING REPORT
How they beat you: The Bulls beat teams with their combo platter of high-octane offense, experience and true grit. Massinburg and Harris (who has struggled to make 3-balls) are prolific wing scorers. Perkins, the team's sixth man, can score both as a low-block bull and in pick-and-pop situations with his line-drive, lefty jumper. What's more, spend too much time and energy on containing UB's big three (Massinburg, Perkins, Harris), and steady senior guard Caruthers and sophomore budding star Graves will make you pay.
How you beat them: A foe will need to score in bushels to evict Buffalo from Bracketville. The only three teams to best the Bulls this season (Marquette, Northern Illinois and Bowling Green) scored 103, 77 and 92 points, respectively. Buffalo will score. It always does. That means a fast start and perhaps some foul difficulty for one of the Bulls' most indispensable parts (i.e. Massinburg, Perkins) will be the M.O. to oust Buffalo.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 10.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 25th (114.8)
Defensive efficiency, 34th (95.3)
3-point percentage, 192nd (34.0)
3-point percentage D, 14th (30.0)
Free throw rate, 219th (31.9)
Free throw rate D, 163rd (32.3)
TO percentage, 23rd (15.8)
TO percentage D, 46th (21.0)
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Elite Eight
The Bulls fit the profile of the Big Dance bracket-buster. Their eight-man rotation is senior-laden, talented and tough. Buffalo's warm-ups read "Blue Collar Mentality," and the team certainly plays with one. Oats, the white-hot coaching commodity who interviewed at Pitt and Xavier last offseason before staying put, can X-and-O with the best of them. This high-octane squad won't be an easy out.
Worst-case scenario: Round of 32
It has been months since the Bulls, the 2019 MAC daddies, have played a Power 5 squad. So one wonders what will happen when a talent-laden opponent blessed with a big-game pedigree can match the Bulls' intensity and shot-making ability. That said, it's hard to imagine Oats' squad not winning at least one NCAA tourney game this March.