Fans of Loyola-Chicago's Sister Jean are no doubt crushed the Ramblers won't get a chance to reprise last season's magical Final Four run, but that plot line certainly plays in Peoria, Illinois, where Bradley is set for its first trip to the NCAA tournament since coach Jim Les' club reached the Sweet 16 in 2006. The Braves overcame an ugly January stretch that featured five consecutive losses to charge home 9-2 and grab the Missouri Valley Conference automatic bid.
Included in their conference tournament run was a victory over Loyola in the semis, which Bradley followed by overcoming an 18-point second-half deficit to defeat Northern Iowa in the title game. What's next for this opportunistic bunch?
ESPN+ has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: vs. Penn State, vs. Loyola-Chicago
Worst losses: Eastern Illinois, at Illinois-Chicago
Regular-season conference finish: T-fifth Missouri Valley Conference
Polls and metrics: The BPI ranks the Braves at 175, while KenPom is a little kinder, putting Bradley at 167.
All-time tourney record: 11-8, two Final Fours
Coach (tourney record): Brian Wardle (0-0)
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 4.)
STARTING LINEUP
G Darrell Brown (14.7 PPG, 2.0 RPG)
G Nate Kennell (9.4 PPG, 2.4 RPG)
G Dwayne Lautier-Ogunleye (8.6 PPG, 5.4 RPG)
F Elijah Childs (12.2 PPG, 7.8 RPG)
F Luuk van Bree (5.7 PPG, 4.1 RPG)
Key bench players
C Koch Bar (8.6 PPG, 5.4 RPG)
G Luqman Lundy (4.0 PPG, 1.8 RPG)
Biggest strength: Since the Braves aren't going to score 80 a night, they have to be strong at the other end, and they are. This isn't a team that will reach peak efficiency levels, but Bradley will prevent rivals from scoring a lot by forcing them to spend a lot of the shot clock and by being deliberate enough on offense to limit the number of possessions foes get. The Braves play sturdy half-court defense and don't allow a lot of fast-break points. It isn't the most exciting brand of basketball, but it has proved to be effective, particularly down the stretch.
Biggest weakness: The Braves turn it over a lot, and that's not a good thing when you are limiting possessions at both ends and have a plus-1.3 scoring margin. Coughing it up on nearly 20 percent of trips up the court is not conducive to beating better teams, so Bradley could find itself in trouble in the first round if it can't protect the ball and maximize the number of shots it takes. Since the Braves connect on only 43.4 percent of their overall tries, they can't be wasting possessions.
Best player: Although Brown's stats aren't overwhelming, he is the focus of the Braves' attack, and the 5-foot-10 junior demonstrated his value as a leader by shooting 8-of-8 from the line in the MVC title-game win, including 6-of-6 late in the game. He is a highly accurate 3-point shooter (43.9 percent), a strong distributor and someone who can create for himself and teammates off the dribble. Brown is a good defender and a solid defensive rebounder for someone his size. He doesn't score as much as big producers on other teams, but part of that is due to the Braves' slower offensive approach.
X factor: It's entirely proper that Childs, a 6-foot-7 sophomore, received third-team All-MVC mention, thanks to his strong work scoring inside and on the boards. The Braves are something of an old-school team in that they don't rely heavily on the 3-pointer, so they need someone capable of doing business in the paint. That's Childs, a reliable interior scorer and good board man who also protects the rim well.
SCOUTING REPORT
How they beat you: The Braves want to limit opponents' possessions and force them to take ill-advised shots and commit turnovers. That's an imperative, because they do not score a lot and aren't the most efficient offensive team around. Bradley is going to shoot well from the outside and rely heavily on Brown and Childs to produce. If they are scoring close to or above form, the Braves' offense should be good enough to win, because the D is capable of creating a substantial advantage, thanks to its ability to stifle rivals inside and along the perimeter.
How you beat them: Since the Braves aren't trying to pile up the possessions and can be prone to turnovers, it's important to crowd them defensively and force them to give the ball away. Even though Brown leads the team in assists, he will also cough it up, because he's trying to create. He's a good 3-point shooter, so crowd him on the perimeter and don't let him get breathing room on pick-and-rolls. Hit the boards hard, because the Braves aren't overwhelming there, and be patient offensively, since Bradley will make opponents spend time on the shot clock in order to find a good shot. Trying to press the tempo doesn't often work against the Braves.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of KenPom.com and are accurate through games of March 4.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 245th (100.9)
Defensive efficiency, 119th (101.4)
3-point percentage, 59th (36.8)
3-point percentage D, 95th (33.0)
Free throw rate, 87th (36.3)
Free throw rate D, 241st (35.3)
TO percentage, 213th (18.9)
TO percentage D, 173rd (18.6)
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Second round
The Braves win a first-round game because they are pitted against an impatient team that doesn't want to protect the basketball and tries to push the tempo despite Bradley's avowed goal of slowing things down. Brown hits from long range and Childs is strong inside.
Worst-case scenario: First-round loss
An efficient offensive outfit with a variety of options and the ability to create opportunities while also taking care of the ball puts up a bunch of points early and forces the Braves into a fast-tempo game. It's a matchup they don't prefer -- and one they cannot survive.