The Belmont Bruins shared the regular-season title in the Ohio Valley Conference but fell to Murray State in the championship game. They possess a potent offense in pursuit of the first NCAA tournament victory in school history. Belmont coach Rick Byrd, in his 33rd year at the school and 38th overall, eclipsed 800 career victories earlier this season and again has built a polished, efficient attack with a deep, diverse roster. Can the Bruins play a sweet tune this March?
ESPN+ has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: vs. Lipscomb, at Lipscomb, at Murray State, at UCLA
Worst losses: at Green Bay, at Jacksonville State
Regular season conference finish: Tied 1st, Ohio Valley
Polls and metrics: BPI ranked the Bruins at No. 49 as of March 11, while KenPom has them at No. 53. The NCAA's new NET ranking thinks more highly of the Bruins, slotting them at No. 45.
All-time tourney record: 0-7
Coach (tourney record): Rick Byrd (0-7)
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 11.)
Starting lineup
F Nick Muszynski (14.9 PPG, 5.9 RPG)
F Dylan Windler (21.4 PPG, 10.7 RPG)
G Kevin McClain (16.3 PPG, 4.2 APG)
G Grayson Murphy (9.8 PPG, 4.5 RPG)
G Michael Benkert (4.3 PPG, 1.7 RPG)
Key bench players
F Caleb Hollander (7.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG)
F Seth Adelsperger (4.8 PPG, 2.5 RPG)
G Nick Hopkins (6.8 PPG, 1.8 RPG)
Biggest strength: The Bruins are the college basketball model for supreme shot selection and offensive efficiency. They ignore midrange jump shots and thrive on a diet of assisted 3-pointers and 2-point shots attempted within the restricted area around the basket. That strategy generates the nation's second-best 2-point percentage (59.5) and 10.5 3-point field goals per game. Windler personifies the approach and ranks second nationally in true shooting percentage among players who take at least one-fourth of their team's shots.
Biggest weakness: Defense. Belmont allows opponents to hit nearly 35 percent of 3-point attempts and was average at best defending spot-up jump shots. Not pursuing offensive rebounds enabled the Bruins to play solid transition defense, but they were susceptible against a variety of plays in the half court. They are also near the bottom of Division I in forcing turnovers (16 percent of opponent's possessions).
Best player: Windler is an elite scorer and Belmont's best defender. Byrd uses him everywhere, effectively. The 6-foot-8 senior forward shot 67 percent on 2s, 43 percent on 3s and 85 percent on free throws against Division I teams this season. He moves well without the ball and can even step out as the ball handler in the pick-and-roll. Windler had eight 30-point games this season including a career-high 41-point outburst at Morehead State in February.
X factor: Muszynski. The Bruins freshman injured his left ankle in the OVC semifinals against Austin Peay and did not play in the championship game but returned to practice prior to Selection Sunday. Belmont needs him at full strength because the 6-foot-11, 235-pound center provides consistent interior scoring, recording a 120.9 offensive rating, hitting 61 percent of 2-pointers and helping Windler clean the glass.
SCOUTING REPORT
How they beat you: Playing fast and scoring in flurries. The Bruins have attempted more than 1,100 2-point field goals this season and 90 percent were launched within point-blank range of the rim. On any night, three or four Bruins join Windler in double figures, and a half-dozen players have made at least 27 3-pointers this season. While the Bruins' identity doesn't revolve around defense, they are capable on that end of the floor, rarely fouling and collecting defensive rebounds at a high rate (22nd in nation).
How you beat them: Force the Bruins to rely too heavily on the 3-point shot and contest those attempts. Belmont was 2-5 this season when it shot worse than 30 percent from beyond the arc. Purdue's size in the frontcourt also kept Belmont from making half of its 2s. The Bruins failed to score at least one point per possession on five occasions and, not surprisingly, dropped three of those games.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 10.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 22nd (115.0)
Defensive efficiency, 131st (102.0)
3-point percentage, 54th (37.1)
3-point percentage D, 193rd (34.7)
Free throw rate, 298th (28.1)
Free throw rate D, 44th (27.7)
TO percentage, 17th (15.4)
TO percentage D, 306th (16.3)
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Second weekend
Defense may win championships -- although there's a strong argument against that well-worn cliche as it pertains to college basketball -- but offense can lift a plucky mid-major to the Sweet 16. The Bruins have been close in their seven previous NCAA appearances -- a one-point loss to Duke in 2008 really stings -- but this year's edition has the star power and depth to cause bracket trouble. The Bruins will get a shot on nearly every possession, and the percentages say it will be a smart one.
Worst-case scenario: One-and-done
If the freshman big man Muszynski is unable to play and Belmont has a poor shooting night from the perimeter, it could be yet another early exit for Byrd, who deserves at least one March moment before he retires, whenever that might be. A disruptive defense could force the Bruins' backcourt to create their own shots off the dribble, and that's not an area where they necessarily excel.