If this season has taught Baylor coach Scott Drew anything, it's that he might want to spend some time during the offseason studying medicine. With all the injuries the Bears sustained this season, he might want to prepare for the future with a little doctor training. Second-leading scorer Tristan Clark played 15 games before going down because of a season-ending knee injury. Leading scorer Makai Mason missed several games because of a bruised toe, and starting guard King McClure was sidelined because of a bum knee. It all contributed to an up-and-down regular season that closed with three consecutive losses, including a senior night face plant against Oklahoma State.
Can the Bears find the medicine to string some tournament wins together?
ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: vs. Texas Tech; at Iowa State
Worst losses: vs. Texas Southern, vs. Stephen F. Austin
Regular-season conference finish: 4th, Big 12
Polls and metrics: The BPI ranks the Bears 37th, while KenPom has them 35th in the nation.
All-time tourney record: 13-13
Coach's tourney record: Scott Drew (10-7)
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 4.)
STARTING LINEUP
G Makai Mason (14.6 PPG, 2.5 RPG)
G Jared Butler (10.3 PPG, 3.1 RPG)
G King McClure (8.9 PPG, 5.3 RPG)
G/F Mario Kegler (10.5 PPG, 6.0 RPG)
G/F Mark Vital (6.9 PPG, 7.2 RPG)
Key Bench Players
G Devonte Bandoo (8.5 PPG, 2.3 RPG)
F Freddie Gillespie (5.3 PPG, 4.4 RPG)
G/F Matthew Mayer (5.0 PPG, 2.2 RPG)
Biggest strength: This is a good rebounding team. The Bears entered the Big 12 tournament with a plus-6.4 board margin, best in the conference. Baylor has the second-best offensive rebounding percentage in the country, and three players who average at least six rebounds. Baylor does not let up a lot of offensive rebounds, and it boasts one of the best offensive rebounders around in Vital. Even though the Bears aren't particularly tall, they hit the boards well, a big reason they are able to win without a collection of sharpshooters.
Biggest weakness: The Bears turn it over way too often and have an assist-to-turnover ratio that is barely above 1-to-1. No player in the rotation can be considered a great ball handler or passer, and that contributes to some of the team's problems. Even though Baylor turns its opponents over at a better pace than it surrenders assisted baskets, the Bears still cough it up more than their rivals, on average.
Best player: If this had been written in early January, the choice probably would have been Clark, whose production at both ends warranted such a designation. Since he is out, the title goes to Mason, the Yale post-grad transfer who has proven himself to be a reliable scorer and a good distributor. Although he doesn't pile up the points regularly, Mason has shown that he can be explosive, as evidence by his 40 points -- including 9-of-12 from 3-point range -- in the win over TCU, and his 29 in the triumph over West Virginia.
X factor: Although Vital's 6.9 PPG number doesn't jump out at those who consider points the only statistic to measure a player's value, he does a lot of things the Bears need to win. He can score off the dribble and in the paint, is the team's top rebounder, has the ability to create opportunities for his teammates and leads Baylor in steals. He's also second in blocks. Vital is a strong complementary piece who helps in many ways.
SCOUTING REPORT
How they beat you: When the Bears are successful, as they were in a three-game stretch of wins over Iowa State, West Virginia and Texas in February, their offense works to its national efficiency ranking (30th), and they are able to put up close to or more than 80 points. It comes courtesy of Drew's motion attack that isn't terribly complicated but forces defenses to defend most of the court for much of the shot clock. When it's running well, Baylor cuts back on its turnovers and uses a collection of solid scoring options to put pressure on defenses. This team isn't going to dazzle with its open-court play too often, but it does have several players capable of passing well enough to create opportunities for their teammates.
Baylor isn't outstanding defensively, but it does limit the number of 3-point shots rivals take and has a solid overall field goal percentage defense (41.9). And when the ball goes up, Baylor hits the boards hard at both ends, creating an advantage that can make up for any shooting or defensive shortcomings.
How you beat them: Since Baylor doesn't have one overwhelming scorer, it's not wise to double-team or pay too much attention to any one player. Even Mason, who has had some big games, can't be expected to blow up every night. The key is maintaining defensive discipline against the motion attack to prevent easy shots and putting enough pressure on the Baylor ball handlers to lead them into turnovers. On offense, don't try to fire away from beyond the arc, because the Bears do a good job at preventing open looks from there. Be patient and understand that scoring 80 against Baylor isn't likely. Finally, rivals have to hit the boards with gusto, particularly when the Bears have the ball, to limit second-chance opportunities.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 4.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 30th (113.7.4)
Defensive efficiency, 63rd (97.8)
3-point percentage, 200th (33.9)
3-point percentage D, 114th (33.4)
Free throw rate, 220th (18.0)
Free throw rate D, 76th (20.7)
TO percentage, 256th (19.7)
TO percentage D, 161st (18.7)
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Second round
The Bears hold onto the ball, convert from beyond the arc and build up a substantial rebounding margin that prevents second shots and knocks off a similarly talented team in the first round.
Worst-case scenario: Opening round loss
Instead of playing efficient offense, Baylor coughs it up early and often, leading to a stagnant attack and some opponent run-outs. The smaller Bears don't get their customary edge on the boards and struggle to contain the opponent at the other end, as they did in several of their losses.