After just barely getting the Sun Devils to the NCAA tournament with a First Four appearance last season, (Arizona State's first trip since 2014) Coach Bobby Hurley had to almost completely remake his rotation, including the incorporation of four new starters. What happened? Much of the same. Arizona State once again squeaked into the field, as the same inconsistencies plaguing last season's team were a problem in 2018-19. A win over Kansas was followed by a loss to Princeton. Beating Washington came one game after falling to Washington State. A season ago the Sun Devils lost their first tournament game. Can this version shake that up-and-down nature and put a run together?
ESPN+ has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: vs. Mississippi State, vs. Utah State, Kansas, Washington
Worst losses: at Vanderbilt, Princeton, at Stanford, Utah, Washington State
Regular season conference finish: 2nd, Pac-12
Polls and metrics: The NET and BPI agree on the Sun Devils, both ranking them 68 as of March 6. Kenpom has Arizona State slightly higher at 64.
All-time tourney record: 13-16
Coach (tourney record): Bobby Hurley (0-2)
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 6.)
Starting lineup
F Zylan Cheatham (11.6 PPG, 10.5 RPG)
F Romello White (8.6 PPG, 5.2 RPG)
G Luguentz Dort (16.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG)
G Rob Edwards (11.5 PPG, 3.2 RPG)
G Remy Martin (13.0 PPG, 5.1 APG)
Key bench players
F Kimani Lawrence (8.7 PPG, 3.6 RPG)
F De'Quon Lake (5.4 PPG, 4.0 RPG)
F Taeshon Cherry (2.8 PPG, 1.6 RPG)
Biggest strength: The addition of grad transfer Cheatham (San Diego State) and the expanded role of sophomore White transformed the Sun Devils into a much-improved rebounding team. Cheatham quickly became the heart and soul of the Sun Devils and gave them the toughness they lacked a year ago. Arizona State went from 203rd in offensive rebound percentage to 44th nationally, which helped mask the fact that ASU was near the bottom in the Pac-12 in field goal percentage. As a result, the Sun Devils got to the free throw line nearly 100 times more than any other team in the conference.
Biggest weakness: Consistency on offense was a problem all season. When forced to play half-court offense the Sun Devils often struggled. Much of that can be pinned to having a young backcourt. Dort, a freshman, and Martin, a sophomore, were Arizona State's top two scorers, but both shot under 41 percent from the field and 33 percent from 3-point range. They are much better in the open floor.
Best player: Despite those ups and downs, Dort is still the Sun Devils' most dynamic player and most likely to break out in the NCAA tournament. At 6-4, 215 pounds he gives Hurley the kind of physical guard the program has lacked. Dort seems to have recovered from the midseason lull that many freshmen suffer through, scoring 20 and 22 points in crucial wins down the stretch against Cal and Oregon State. He plays with a fearlessness that helped him get to the line more than any player in the Pac-12, and he led the Sun Devils in 3-point attempts.
X factor: Martin has battled a high ankle sprain most of the season, but as the Sun Devils' only true point guard, he has proven to be the club's most important player. Despite the injury he led ASU in minutes per game and the Pac-12 in assist-to-turnover ratio. He makes everything go in the Arizona State transition game and generally has the ball in his hands in crunch time. The 6-foot Martin made the go-ahead bucket in the final minute in the win over Kansas and scored 31 against Arizona five days after a tough loss at USC.
SCOUTING REPORT
How they beat you: If the Sun Devils can turn their work on the glass and ability to create turnovers into offense, they are a tough out. They are 44th in the country in adjusted tempo and are a much better offensive team in transition. Martin thrives with the ball in his hands in the open court -- leading to more open shots for Dort and Edwards. This attacking style led to the ninth-best free throw rate in the country.
How you beat them: The half-court offense so often runs through Cheatham. In many ways he becomes a de facto second point guard, especially against a zone. Limiting his touches means significantly less flow and rhythm to the Sun Devils' offense. Arizona State relies on getting on the offensive glass and getting to the free throw line. Without those elements there might not be enough fire power.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 6.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 80th (109.3)
Defensive efficiency, 74th (98.7)
3-point percentage, 200th (33.8)
3-point percentage D, 114th (33.4)
Free throw rate, 9th (43.0)
Free throw rate D, 294th (38.5)
TO percentage, 170th (18.5)
TO percentage D, 146th (19.0)
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: First weekend appearance
While the Pac-12 was down markedly this season, Arizona State did prove its mettle in wins over tournament-level competition in Kansas, Utah State and Mississippi State. The ability is there to advance. Consistency has been the issue, making an extended run unlikely. Merely a solid shooting night with Cheatham and White getting on the boards would be enough for the Pac-12 to regain some of the honor it lost this season.
Worst-case scenario: One-and-done
The Sun Devils struggled badly in the second half in their losses to Stanford, Washington State and Utah. Even against weaker competition, Arizona State couldn't close the deal or elevate when it mattered most. Imagining that will suddenly change in the NCAA tournament is a reach. Without a full 40 minutes like the Sun Devils put together against Washington, this will be a short stay.