Based on the commentary I have heard and read after the first weekend of the men's NCAA tournament, fans have a lot of opinions on the state of the tournament -- and the sport.
For some, the tournament has disappointed because there was not the chaos and bracket busting we have come to expect. For others, it is the canary in the coal mine of college basketball, and the portal and NIL are leading to the death of the mid-major and Cinderella.
And yes, the Sweet 16 is set, made up of teams from four conferences, all major conferences. There are seven SEC teams, four each from the Big Ten and Big 12, and one from the ACC. All four No. 1 seeds, three No. 2 seeds, two No. 3 seeds and three No. 4 seeds crowd the field.
But to all that discourse, I say: Nonsense. One data point does not make a trend.
We have had chalky NCAA tournaments before, well before NIL and the portal. Two years ago, Houston was in the American Athletic Conference, BYU was in the West Coast Conference and Arizona was in the Pac-12. Without recent expansion, we would be talking about 16 teams from seven conferences. If Maryland's Derik Queen had missed his buzzer shot, we'd be talking about eight, including a mid-major.
The last time Ole Miss was in the Sweet 16 was 2001, and the last time BYU was in the Sweet 16 was 2011. Drake, McNeese, New Mexico, Colorado State, Saint Mary's and Gonzaga all won first-round games. UC San Diego, a trendy upset pick, lost to Michigan by one possession, and Colorado State was that buzzer shot away from a Sweet 16 appearance.
Is that what we are basing the demise of the NCAA tournament upon? By the way, ratings are up, not down, for the regular season and for the NCAA tournament. And for the record -- 15 of the Sweet 16 teams are rated in the top 25 of the KenPom.com ratings, with Arkansas bringing up the rear at No. 36. The highest-rated teams to lose in the second round were Gonzaga (No. 9), Iowa State (No. 11), Wisconsin (No. 12) and St. John's (No. 14).
In my Selection Sunday article, in which I picked every single game of the tournament, here are my results so far:
First round: 23-9 with 15 of the Sweet 16 and all eight of the Elite Eight.
Second round: 12-4 with 12 of the Sweet 16, seven of the Elite Eight and all four of the Final Four.
The world still spins firmly upon its axis, and we are headed toward a great Sweet 16 and beyond.
South Region
1 Auburn Tigers
Tigers make the Final Four if: They defend and rebound at a high level. Auburn has the depth, ball security, perimeter shooting and free throw shooting to beat anybody. When Auburn is dialed in defensively, it has all of the elements of a national championship team.