A handful of teams represent the cream of the crop in college basketball season.
Duke and Auburn have been in that discussion since Day 1, while Houston's dominant Big 12 run launched the Cougars into that tier before Florida entered the conversation after finishing the regular season and SEC tournament playing better ball than any other team in the country.
It's no surprise the top four teams in every predictive metric earned the four 1-seeds in the 2025 NCAA tournament -- and were the only programs picked to win the national championship in our annual poll of 25 coaches and scouts.
Last season's edition featured 20 of 25 votes for the eventual champion UConn Huskies. But this season, we have some real disagreement and debate, with the most-picked team receiving 10 votes to the No. 2 team's eight, and another two splitting the final seven.
The official vote tally:
Duke: 10
Florida: 8
Auburn: 4
Houston: 3
In addition to collecting their votes, we consulted coaches about the potential flaws of the top four teams, the ceilings of St. John's and UConn, whether this is Kelvin Sampson's best Houston team, how injuries could impact Duke, popular Cinderella picks and who NBA scouts will be watching this tournament.
The top 4 contenders
Despite Cooper Flagg's recent injury, Duke is among the two most-picked teams -- the Blue Devils have lost only one game since late November and enter the tournament with one of the best efficiency margins in the past 25 years.
"After what they were able to accomplish without Flagg in the ACC tournament, I'm not sure there is a hole here with this team," one NBA scout told ESPN. "Maybe it's the lack of experience with its top three players, but the sheer depth [the Blue Devils] possess, the amount of lineups they can throw out there to beat you, the energy they exert on each side of the ball and their mix of shooting, size, versatility, talent and intangible guys.
"It might take a near-perfect game to beat them, especially if they are at full health."
The other popular pick was Florida. The Gators have won 12 of their past 13 games heading into the Big Dance, dominating their competition outside of a road loss to Georgia in late February. They rolled through the SEC tournament -- easily dispatching Missouri, Alabama and Tennessee -- and have the best pre-tournament adjusted offensive efficiency in history.
"They can get you multiple ways," an SEC coach said of the Gators. "They've been in situations where they were down 15 and pressed to get back in the game. They can play either style. They have multiple ways to score on you. You ice ball screens, they can beat you. You blitz, they can beat you. They have solutions on offense and defense that lets them play with anyone, big or small. I don't think every team has that."
Meanwhile, the Auburn Tigers, the No. 1 overall seed, were the consensus best team in the country for the first half of the season. The Tigers enter the tournament with losses in three of four games, but are still elite offensively, plus have one of the biggest and most experienced teams in the country.
"They're old and they've played a lot together," one coach said. "Bruce Pearl is a veteran coach that has really shown through his entire career that he can get it done in the end. That could give them a little edge. I think their goal all season has been focused on winning a championship."
"I would pick Auburn in a one-game setting," another coach who didn't pick Auburn said. "I think they're going to get let down at some point in a six-game stretch, but if you said it's Auburn vs. so-and-so tonight, I'd pick Auburn."
And finally, there's Houston, which has lost one game since November and just finished a 19-1 Big 12 campaign followed up by a run through the conference tournament.
"The knock was always that [the Cougars] didn't have enough scoring. I don't think about them this year," one coach said. "When they get deep in the tournament, they will not have the best player on the floor. And I think that can matter. So they'll have to do it collectively. They're all really good players."
Potential flaws for 1-seeds
Auburn Tigers
Multiple SEC coaches said an opponent able to slow down Johni Broome -- or an opponent willing to guard him one-on-one without providing help -- poses an issue for the No. 1 overall seed.
"They run so much through Broome," one coach said. "Not that there's a lot of people that can guard him, but if you can kinda, sorta guard him, [the Tigers'] explosive offense can stall enough for you to do something. You're talking about the best offense in history at one point, from an analytics standpoint. You have to be able to match up with their inside presence."
"The guys that can guard him one-on-one in the post, like Florida, make it tough for him to score," another coach added. "Teams that are smaller in the post, that's where he dominates. That opens up all the avenues for everyone else. That's the way. Limit them to one shot because they get on the glass.
"Guard him one-on-one and keep [Dylan] Cardwell and [Chad] Baker-Mazara off the glass."
Duke Blue Devils
Duke hasn't shown many weaknesses over the final few months of the season, though ACC coaches have said opponents that have more than one guy who can initiate offense and have legitimate inside-outside scorers down low could have success.
"I've always thought that how you beat Duke is when you have two guys that can really make plays, two guys that can really shoot and space the floor and a big that can be some sort of presence in the lane," one coach said. "Because of how aggressive they play defensively. It can't just be one playmaker because they'll load up on that dude and force someone else to do it."
"Flagg makes up for it with effort, but individually he hasn't been elite in one-on-one situations," another ACC coach said. "You need to put him in switches, make him recover. Watch the Georgia Tech game, he struggled closing out on Duncan Powell. Now, when they play with certain lineups, deficiencies can get masked because they're so good collectively."
Houston Cougars
As we'll get to below, this is not the same kind of Houston team of recent years that could go through regular offensive droughts -- these Cougars are elite on that end of the floor. That said, coaches believe the key to beating them is running them off the 3-point line and attacking the offensive glass at the other end.
"They're monsters on the offensive glass. But you can sometimes [get an] offensive rebound on them," one Big 12 coach said.
"They're going to go to [J'Wan] Roberts if they need a bucket, then [L.J.] Cryer second. But the other thing that's different than years past, when the chips got down, they had [Marcus] Sasser or [Jamal] Shead taking a mid-range jump shot. Now, they're going to spread you out and get 3s. You need to watch those guards."
Florida Gators
Florida is playing at an incredibly high level. And what makes the Gators difficult to prepare for is their ability to play against multiple styles, at multiple tempos. They are at their best when they are able to get up and down and get their offense at its most open, so a team that can match them in terms of firepower while also dealing with their physicality is needed to expose them.
"They want to make it a track meet," one SEC coach said. "If you come up against a team that's willing to play up and down and is on fire that night, that can get them. That's how some teams have been able to get up against them, play at their pace and make shots. Sometimes they don't guard on the perimeter, so that's the one way you can maybe get them."
"You have to be able to score one-on-one in the post," another coach added. "You can take advantage of that, get them into foul trouble. And then make them try to execute in the half court. They're so good in that free-flowing offense. Alabama likes to play that way, but Florida is better at it and they're more physical."
Is this Houston's best team under Kelvin Sampson?
This will be Houston's third consecutive NCAA tournament with a 1-seed, but the Cougars have been knocked out in the Sweet 16 in back-to-back years. Both of those teams were better than the 2021 one that reached the Final Four, but they suffered injuries at inopportune times.
Roberts' ankle injury last week in the Big 12 tournament likely induced some flashbacks, but it appears that he will suit up in the tournament. And at full strength, this team might be better equipped to cut down the nets than the previous iterations. That's because of improvements on the offensive end, particularly with perimeter shooting. Houston ranks fourth nationally in 3-point percentage, making nearly 40% of its attempts from beyond the arc.
"It's their best team," one Big 12 coach said. "It's always been defense, defense, defense. But this team is an elite offensive team, too, which was never their M.O. It was always being elite defensively, elite offensive rebounding, but past [the second round] of the tournament, you can't physically dominate teams anymore. But this team can really score with those teams. [All three of their guards] can really, really score and really shoot. And Roberts can really score on the block. Cryer shoots 42% from 3. [Milos] Uzan shoots 43%. [Emanuel] Sharp shoots 43%. And they're still just as good at the defense and the offensive rebounding."
Uzan's performance over the second half of the season was the key to Houston's incredible Big 12 campaign. After an up-and-down November and December following his transfer from Oklahoma, Uzan turned things on in conference play and took the Cougars to a different level. Over the final 17 games, he averaged 14.2 points and 3.8 assists, shooting 48.5% from 3 after averaging 8.8 points and shooting 35.2% from beyond the arc over his first 17 games.
"It's a really, really hard thing to do in coaching, making a kid tougher," a Big 12 coach said. "But Sampson and that culture did move the needle for him. He has a different physical toughness than I ever saw at Oklahoma. I'll be honest with you, I was shocked they took him.
"In hindsight, I was 100% wrong. He's always had great size, he's had good athletic ability, he can score and stuff. But it's the toughness."
Can St. John's overcome its shooting struggles?
Arguably the biggest story in the sport over the last month has been the Rick Pitino-led revival of St. John's. The Red Storm won the Big East regular-season title and steamrolled their way to the conference tournament championship, entering the NCAA tournament with a 2-seed and a 30-4 record, with the four losses coming by a combined seven points.
But how far can St. John's go as one of the worst shooting teams in the country? The Red Storm are 10th in the Big East in free throw percentage and last in 3-point percentage -- they have made double-digit 3s in only one game since Thanksgiving.
Pitino hasn't appeared concerned about the lack of 3-point shooting, though, and opposing coaches think the Johnnies are good enough at everything else to make up for it. They have the No. 1-ranked defense at KenPom, are a top-10 offensive rebounding team and are relentlessly aggressive in the paint.
"I've never coached against a team like St. John's, where they get down every game and they have the toughness and the ability to play so hard on defense every possession," one Big East coach said. "They have an unbelievable resilience. They're going to punk people at some point. They might not have enough scoring, but it wouldn't shock me if they were right there at the end because they're such a great offensive rebounding team."
"There's a point in the game where they just take your spirit," an opposing coach said. "They have a lot of guys who play with great confidence, guys that are just into the team and winning. The effort level every possession on defense, it stands out. Teams just wilt. They just have a lot of pieces that keep coming at you. They wear you down."
What's the ceiling for UConn?
The back-to-back reigning champions entered the 2024-25 season with aspirations of becoming the first program since John Wooden and UCLA to win three straight national titles. But after being ranked inside the top five in the preseason, the Huskies haven't been able to regain the magic of the past two seasons and enter the NCAA tournament as an 8-seed.
So what's happened to Dan Hurley's team? Opposing coaches say the biggest differences are a massive drop-off at the defensive end of the floor and the lack of an elite point guard after losing All-American Tristen Newton from the championship teams. It also doesn't help that a defense that ranked in the top 10 nationally in each of the last two campaigns is barely inside the top 100 at KenPom.
"They're nowhere near as good on defense," one Big East coach said. "[Donovan] Clingan changes everything. You couldn't score at the rim when Clingan was in the game, ever. He affects everything you try to do. Without an elite shooting game from the outside, you couldn't beat UConn. And they don't have the same perimeter defenders they had. [Alex] Karaban isn't bad, but he's not at the same level as those other guys. Newton was an elite defender. [Solo] Ball is not as good of a defender."
"They don't have the same personnel that allowed them to do some of the things they did. Now they're really spread out and it allows a lot more drives to the rim. You can go at them in the paint more than you ever could."
"Hassan Diarra and Aidan Mahaney are not Tristen Newton," another coach added. "They have to rely on Liam McNeeley to be their secondary ball handler. Ball can shoot and go off screens, but he's not great with the ball. Newton put pressure on you in transition, getting to the rim, drawing fouls. Diarra is doing his best but he's inconsistent. "You don't have the same fear as you did with Tristen Newton."
All that said, coaches are reluctant to rule out the possibility of the Huskies making a deep tournament run. They have strung together two stretches of high-level basketball over the course of the season, winning eight straight between late November and early January, then another five in a row before falling to Creighton in the Big East semifinals.
Could they do it again this month?
"They still have an elite system that fits their personnel well, and they have a ton of firepower on offense," one coach said. "You can realistically say that any game, you have at least three guys that can go get you 20 with Ball and his game-changing shooting, McNeeley's ability to score in different ways and get fouled, Karaban being a matchup nightmare at the four. Those are all things they will continue to have. They have the two-headed monster at the five with Samson Johnson and Tarris Reed [Jr.]. They're not what they had last year, but Reed can get 15 [points] and eight [rebounds], and Johnson can catch four lobs and they're dangerous. Their talent is still good, especially on offense. But they have to outscore teams."
How will Duke deal with potential injury absences?
The news spread quickly throughout the college basketball world Thursday: Flagg had suffered an ankle injury and was in a wheelchair on his way to the locker room. Was that the end of his college career and Duke's national championship hopes?
Flagg missed the rest of the ACC tournament, but Jon Scheyer said he expects to have the freshman phenom for the NCAA tournament. We know Flagg is the Wooden Award favorite and expected No. 1 pick in the NBA draft, but what specifically is Duke missing when he's sidelined?
"He's a matchup nightmare," one ACC coach said. "Very few teams have an answer for him. So [without him], they become a really good team that you can figure out matchups for. You had a complete freak that maybe four teams in the country have a good matchup for. Without him, you can put your best defender on Kon [Knueppel] instead of putting that guy on Flagg and making life easier for Kon and [Tyrese] Proctor."
"The easy answer is the playmaking," another coach added. "Duke can give him the ball, he's driving to score, he's making plays for other people, he's a calming and ball-handling presence. [Isaiah] Evans can make shots, [Mason] Gillis has toughness and shot the ball well recently, but it makes them more one-dimensional.
Flagg isn't the only Duke player dealing with an injury: Maliq Brown reinjured his shoulder in the conference tournament and his timeline isn't as optimistic as that of Flagg. While Brown comes off the bench, he is one of the ACC's best defensive players and was a key reason Duke was able to beat Auburn in December.
Without him, the Blue Devils' defensive versatility takes a massive hit.
"When Brown is in, it unlocks their switchability," an opposing coach said. "They switch one through five, with how they play defensively, how aggressive they are on the ball, overly aggressive in gaps, you just don't have windows to make plays against them.
"When [Maluach] is in the game, they'll hedge, they'll drop. But everything changes because Maliq switches onto the ball handler and no advantage is gained. Everybody is big and strong enough to guard a post-up, and Maliq makes it so nobody can drive. So when they're in that switching lineup, where are you attacking?"
Potential Cinderellas
What about the early-round upsets? The small-school stars that capture the nation's attention? The teams that become the stories of the tournament?
Let's run through what coaches think about four popular first-round upset picks -- all double-digit seeds and true mid-major programs.
No. 12 UC San Diego Tritons
The case for them being a Cinderella: "They turn you over like crazy," a Big West head coach said. "Hayden Gray leads the country in steals, he's special and unique at it. [Chris] Howell, the transfer from Saint Mary's, is top five in steals. They play to that. They know how to cover for each other.
"Offensively, they're inverted, so their bigs shoot. [Nordin] Kapic shoots 3s. They shoot a ton of 3s. Michigan could play zone, but what everybody tries to do is put bigs on [Aniwaniwa] Tait-Jones, but he dribble-drives and draws fouls. He's No. 1 in the country in free throw attempts. And he's got shooters around him. Teams will try a full deny on [Tyler] McGhie. You have to take him away. He's terrified me over two years. But they make adjustments and it's just hard to prepare.
"The most important thing is to get shots on the rim, but they're elite defensive rebounding now. It's surprisingly physical, just the way they play. That ball comes out fast, and their whole mission is to get a paint touch or get it on one of the blocks and then play from there."
The case against them as a Cinderella: "Tait-Jones is so talented at getting into your arms, but that would be my question mark," a Big West head coach said. "If the refs don't give him calls, [Michigan's Vladislav] Goldin and [Danny] Wolf are too big, then it'll be a problem. If you can take McGhie or Tait-Jones' free throws away, you've got a shot.
"Michigan has got size ... [so] they can just pound it inside, go over the top. But these guys are wolves, though. When the ball is in the air, they want to steal it. They'll double the post. They make you play slow. Turnovers are so powerful for their offense. It's not the best [first-round matchup for UCSD]."
No. 11 Drake Bulldogs
The case for them being a Cinderella: "Bennett Stirtz is going to be one of the best players in this tournament," a Missouri Valley assistant said. "He's going to touch the ball five times in a possession, so you have to figure out what you're switching, what you're not switching. It's not the initial ball screen. They'll start the possession with Stirtz off the ball, then he'll get it and you have to decide what to do on a side ball screen. Or you have to switch under 10 seconds on the shot clock. He puts you in a conundrum the whole time. There's no moment that's too big for him. He never gets rattled. He has an uncanny ability to make late shot clock shots.
"Their offense dictates their defense. They have the slowest tempo in the country offensively and they're the No. 1 scoring defense. They have some of the best role definition in the country. [Mitch] Mascari is an elite shooter, Isaiah Jackson is one of the best on-ball defenders in the country, Daniel [Abreu] is a good team defender and straight-line driver. And they have Cam Manyawu and Tavion Banks."
The case against them as a Cinderella: "You need to get the game going, get easy transition baskets. You need to be able to run on them and you need to be able to get stops," a Missouri Valley assistant coach said. "If they can dwindle the shot clock down to four seconds and score, it's perfect for them. All their made baskets are late clock. But if you can get stops, that's the biggest reason why they get down.
"They can get driven. They have good defenders, but higher-level players can drive them. When it's 60 possessions, it limits you. When it's 75 possessions, their lack of athleticism can get exposed more. With only 30 possessions per half, Drake takes all that stuff out of the game. If there's a team that can get the game going in that direction, it will show up more."
No. 12 McNeese Cowboys
The case for them being a Cinderella: "Javohn Garcia, the [Southland] Player of the Year, is their heartbeat. He's a jack-of-all-trades," a Southland head coach said. "I think when [Christian] Shumate is playing well, they're playing well. He plays with so much energy. When he gets highlight plays, that gets them going. Sincere Parker is a high-major scorer. You need a plan on how to deal with him coming off the bench. And Joe Charles might be the best NBA prospect in our league. He's 6-foot-9, he can make a 3 and he'll guard you.
"They offensive rebound 40% of their misses. They thrive on all the tough stuff. Sort of like a Houston for our level. They beat you up. They want to get in a physical battle with you. When they're running, that's when they're dangerous. Their ability to play in transition with all those athletes. And they don't get enough credit for their shooting."
The case against them as a Cinderella: "Their major weakness is half-court offense," a Southland head coach said. "They run a bunch of sets. I don't think they need to run as many sets as they do. The sets slow them down. I think they should play with more pace. They have the athletes and talent to do it.
"You have to keep them off the offensive glass and limit live-ball turnovers. Dead-ball turnovers hurt you obviously, but you can get your defense set. Live-ball turnovers get them rolling. Those are the two main things. They're more talented than last year, but they were more connected last year. I thought they had a better team last year. You need to keep a little pressure on them. I would try to play with as much pace as possible. They can struggle in transition."
No. 13 High Point Panthers
The case for them being a Cinderella: "The first thing is they've got size," a Big South head coach said. "[Juslin] Bodo Bodo is enormous. He's a mountain of a man. He doesn't do a ton other than finish at the rim, block shots and rebound. He does those three things at an extremely high level.
"The second thing they do, and I'm not sure they'll be able to do this in an NCAA tournament setting, but they get to the free throw line. They drive the ball furiously. [Kezza] Giffa, [Kimani] Hamilton, those guys' free throw rate is really, really high.
"They have three high-major players: Giffa, Bodo and Hamilton. In Hamilton, D'Maurian Williams and Abdoulaye Thiam, they have three high-major transfers. I don't know that those three are going to be fearful of those guys. And I think that's a big deal. Having dudes that can take a punch and then respond is a big deal."
The case against them as a Cinderella: "Purdue is going to get in the gaps and they're going to be strong in the gaps," a Big South head coach said. "High Point is going to have to make shots or get stops to open up the gaps. They have to get stops, get in transition after a miss. They're going to have to make perimeter jump shots, in my opinion, to loosen up the defense. Nobody in our league throws it into the post. Bodo has to guard [Kaufman-Renn]. He's prone to foul trouble and he's not very disciplined.
"I think that's going be a thing: How are they going to guard Braden Smith in a ball screen? What they're going to try to do is go under and meet him on the other side. They have to do that. If they go over the top, Purdue is going to screen the s--- out of them. Bodo can't get out there at the level of the screen, he just can't.
"They bring [Simon] Hildebrandt off the bench, they can get more aggressive with him. They've benched Bodo when he can't guard ball screens. Purdue isn't slipping those screens, they're setting them, so the guards have to navigate them. I would assume they'll slide under and meet him. If they go over the top, I would say they're in for a long day. Or they're just hoping he misses."
NBA scouts' watch list
There might not be an NBA prospect with more momentum entering the NCAA tournament than Colorado State's Nique Clifford, who has been one of the best players in the country over the past month. A 6-foot-6 senior, Clifford has been in otherworldly form as the Rams ran off a 10-game winning streak -- including a Mountain West conference tournament title -- to make their third NCAA tournament in four years.
Over those 10 games to end the season, Clifford averaged 22.1 points, 9.0 rebounds and 5.1 assists, while shooting 56.5% from the field, 55.8% from 3-point range and 80.3% from the free throw line. He is a borderline first-round pick, but could continue rising up boards in the tournament, starting against 5-seed Memphis.
"I'm not sure why he's not getting more love," one scout said of Clifford. "He's practically improved every facet of his game and taken a much larger portion of his team's offense and carried his team down the stretch. The best thing about Nique is that he's shown he can be just as productive in a smaller role as one taking up heavy usage. A standout game against a team like Memphis, who might be undermanned without [Tyrese] Hunter, could only enhance his standing come the summertime and predraft process."
Another mid-major player who has plenty at stake entering the NCAA tournament is Missouri Valley Player of the Year Bennett Stirtz, who transferred up from Division II Northwest Missouri State. He leads the country in minutes played, is top 50 nationally in scoring and top 30 in assists -- but he has a huge test against 6-seed Missouri and the Tigers' length and physicality Thursday.
"It's just about can he do it against real size and athleticism and what else can he give you against that level of play when he's not shooting it as well? How legitimate is his defense?" an NBA scout said. "But he has real stuff to him as far as the shot diversity and positional size that should translate."
When discussing games with the most relevance for NBA evaluators, UConn vs. Oklahoma was mentioned the most. The first-round matchup features a pair of projected lottery picks in Sooners guard Jeremiah Fears and Huskies forward Liam McNeeley; UConn will have its hands full trying to keep Fears out of the lane, while McNeeley's offensive versatility could be the difference in this one.
There's more from this game, too. Alex Karaban is a borderline first-round pick, and Jalon Moore is ranked inside ESPN's top 100. Solo Ball also likely has an NBA future thanks to his shotmaking.
Illinois' first-round matchup against the winner of the First Four matchup between Texas and Xavier will receive plenty of eyeballs regardless of the winner.
"Kasparas Jakucionis vs. Tre Johnson will get the NBA draft world going because they're probably in the same tier as of today," one scout said. "And if it's Xavier, Dailyn Swain will have to prove how real his defense is against Jakucionis and Will Riley."
Another head-to-head matchup that would provide intrigue is Kansas' K.J. Adams vs. Arkansas' Adou Thiero, though Thiero missed the past six games of the season with an injury and doesn't appear likely to play in the opening round.
Two players in need of a good showing this week will face off in Thursday's BYU vs. VCU matchup featuring Egor Demin and Max Shulga. Demin entered the season as a projected top-10 pick but hasn't quite lived up to the hype, most notably struggling as a shooter, with some scouts saying his stock has dropped to the second half of the first round. Shulga, meanwhile, has played himself onto boards after winning Atlantic 10 Player of the Year honors.
One more head-to-head matchup that offers a level of intrigue could double as a first-round upset. Wisconsin's John Tonje performed at an All-American level over the second half of the season and could find himself in the second round of the draft, while Montana's Money Williams drew sleeper buzz early in the season due to his scoring ability after scoring 30 points against Tennessee and 25 against Utah State.
Williams has cooled down considerably, but could another huge showing in a big game regain some momentum?
"I love the idea of John Tonje up against Money Williams," one scout said. "Montana is one of the hottest teams in the event and it's partially because of Williams and his shotmaking. But how he will handle a much older and more physical and refined guard/wing in a similar mold and makeup like Tonje will be interesting. I wouldn't be surprised to see this game go Montana's way but much will come down to how well Williams, Malik Moore and the rest of their team can slow down the aggressiveness of Tonje and his ability to touch the paint and draw fouls. If they can't, it might not even matter the degree of shotmaking that Williams can offer."