Sweet 16. Second weekend. Regional semifinals. Whatever you call it, we've made it to this point. Just about one-quarter of the field is left, and we can all take a breath. Some of how we got here was expected: No. 1 seeds UConn and Purdue did UConn and Purdue things; North Carolina kept hammering home why it deserved that 1-seed, while Houston has us wondering if it is in fact the weakest of the top four teams. (This is the first time since 2019 that all four 1-seeds and all four 2-seeds made it out of the first weekend -- just the fifth time since the field went to 64 teams in 1985.)
But some of it wasn't expected: 11-seed NC State rode the momentum from its five-wins-in-five-days run to the ACC national championship through two more postseason wins. Clemson knocked off 3-seed Baylor. There will once again be no Kansas or Kentucky in the second weekend.
We've discussed how we got here (check out our takeaways from Day 1 of the second round here, and Day 2 of the second round here), and where the teams all now rank.
Now, let's turn to the actual games. ESPN college basketball experts Jeff Borzello, John Gasaway and Myron Medcalf take an early look at every Sweet 16 matchup and predict what will happen on Thursday and Friday.
Find your bracket here.
No. 6 seed Clemson Tigers vs. No. 2 seed Arizona Wildcats
Thursday, 7:09 p.m. ET, Los Angeles
Borzello: Clemson was fantastic defensively in its first two games of the tournament, slowing down two explosive offenses in New Mexico and Baylor. Arizona is a different test. The Wildcats showed real mettle in the win over Dayton, getting big baskets and stops down the stretch. Caleb Love, Keshad Johnson and Jaden Bradley give Arizona a different dimension than the last two tournaments.
Prediction: Arizona 82, Clemson 70
Gasaway: Arizona was typical Arizona for the first 18 minutes against Dayton, and then the Wildcats became erratic. That's worrisome for Tommy Lloyd (and he looked it Saturday), because his team has had turnover issues now in four of its past five outings. Then again, takeaways aren't Clemson's thing at all. This is a good draw for Arizona.
Prediction: Arizona 86, Clemson 79
Medcalf: Clemson overcame adversity in multiple games. It finished 7-for-21 from beyond the arc against New Mexico but still put together a dominant win. It nearly lost a double-digit lead against Baylor but held on to win. But Arizona is playing like one of the most complete teams in the field. The Wildcats are on a different level with their guard play and tempo.
Prediction: Arizona 85, Clemson 77
No. 5 seed San Diego State Aztecs vs. No. 1 seed UConn Huskies
Thursday, 7:39 p.m. ET, Boston
Borzello: I'm expecting a similar result to last season's national championship game. UConn is better than last season, San Diego State isn't as good as last season. Donovan Clingan should be able to nullify Jaedon LeDee on the interior, which will make scoring consistently a chore for the Aztecs. UConn rolls into the Elite Eight.
Prediction: UConn 74, San Diego State 62
Gasaway: The Aztecs ranked eighth in the 11-team Mountain West for effective field goal percentage. I'm not sure what the blueprint for beating UConn is, exactly, but it's not an opponent that shot 30% on 3s in conference play. Expect Brian Dutcher's team to get offensive boards -- but so did plenty of Big East teams on the way to losing.
Prediction: UConn 77, San Diego State 68
Medcalf: Dutcher's squad has been a great defensive team and it also has the most underrated player in the country in LeDee. But the latter's growth isn't more significant than Clingan's growth as a two-way player (eight blocks in Sunday's win over Northwestern). UConn finished 1-for-11 from the 3-point line in the second half against the Wildcats and still won by 17 points.
Prediction: UConn 73, San Diego State 64
No. 4 seed Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 1 seed North Carolina Tar Heels
Thursday, 9:39 p.m. ET, Los Angeles
Borzello: I'm going with the upset here. There are certainly concerns from Alabama's perspective: Can the Tide keep Armando Bacot off the glass? Can they keep the Heels out of transition and consistently get stops? Alabama hasn't been the free-flowing offense that buries teams in a barrage of 3-pointers all that often the past few weeks. But if Carolina lets the Tide run, it could be a breakout game.
Prediction: Alabama 88, North Carolina 86
Gasaway: For all the quite understandable attention paid to Alabama's 3s, where the Tide really thrived in the SEC this season was inside the arc. Bama connected on a stellar 57% of its 2s, and I just don't see that happening against Armando Bacot and this excellent UNC defense.
Prediction: North Carolina 90, Alabama 84
Medcalf: North Carolina, I think, has proved it can play with any team in the field. Really strong defensively. The Heels have an All-American running the show. They have an elite big man. And now Harrison Ingram is hitting 3-pointers again. They can hurt you everywhere. That will demand a defensive level from Alabama that Nate Oats' squad doesn't have.
Prediction: North Carolina 87, Alabama 83
No. 3 seed Illinois Fighting Illini vs. No. 2 seed Iowa State Cyclones
Thursday, 10:09 p.m. ET, Boston
Borzello: This might be the most intriguing matchup of the Sweet 16: The No. 1 offense in the country vs. the No. 1 defense in the country. Iowa State is going to make it a half-court game, but if Illinois can take care of the ball, the wing duo of Terrence Shannon Jr. and Marcus Domask has enough firepower.
Prediction: Illinois 71, Iowa State 69
Gasaway: The Cyclones are excellent on D in part because they force an astounding number of turnovers. The Fighting Illini value the ball -- until they don't. An early-season loss to Marquette and one in February at Penn State both suggest the Illini can on occasion be pressured into coughing up the ball. ISU wins a close one.
Prediction: Iowa State 80, Illinois 78
Medcalf: We all know these two teams are excellent in contrasting ways. But what about the other elements of this matchup? Illinois has been a sub-100 team (163rd to be exact) in adjusted defensive efficiency since Feb. 1, per barttorvik.com. Teams with those numbers don't usually advance deep into the tournament. And the Illini now have to stop an Iowa State squad that has made 47% of its 3-point attempts over the last four games. I'll take the Cyclones' elite defense and improved shooting here.
Prediction: Iowa State 73, Illinois 70
No. 11 seed NC State Wolfpack vs. No. 2 seed Marquette Golden Eagles
Friday, 7:09 p.m. ET, Dallas
Borzello: Is it even possible to pick against DJ Burns Jr., Kevin Keatts and a Wolfpack team on a seven-game winning streak in the past two weeks? I think it is. Marquette's guards are simply too good. Tyler Kolek and Kam Jones are playing better than any backcourt in the country right now and Oso Ighodaro will be able to slow down Burns defensively.
Prediction: Marquette 80, NC State 73
Gasaway: I can be talked into taking a lower seed over Marquette -- I'd just be more comfortable if the underdog were an offensive rebounding juggernaut like Texas A&M. Casey Morsell is an outstanding on-ball defender but Kolek and Jones may be too much for the Wolfpack to handle.
Prediction: Marquette 83, NC State 76
Medcalf: The bottom line is that Marquette is a different team with Kolek on the floor. He's averaging 19.5 PPG and 11.0 APG, while connecting on 63% of his shots inside the arc during this tournament. I like the Burns story and I hope he makes a bunch of NIL money between now and then. But I like healthy Marquette to win here more.
Prediction: Marquette 77, NC State 72
No. 5 seed Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. No. 1 seed Purdue Boilermakers
Friday, 7:39 p.m. ET, Detroit
Borzello: A rematch of Purdue's 10-point win in November in the Maui Invitational. But Gonzaga is a very different team than it was four months ago, playing at an incredibly high level on the offensive end. The Zags thrive on points in the paint, though, and I think Zach Edey will be enough of a deterrent at one end and Purdue will make 3s at the other.
Prediction: Purdue 79, Gonzaga 76
Gasaway: I'll take the Zags, but it will require March heroics from guys like Ben Gregg and Braden Huff. Graham Ike is outstanding against any normal opponent, but Edey needs to be pulled out of the paint when Gonzaga has the ball. On D, the Bulldogs might finally be the opponent that doesn't put Edey on the line a million times.
Prediction: Gonzaga 82, Purdue 81
Medcalf: Gonzaga is now one of the best offensive teams in America and Ike (62% inside the arc) is one of the nation's most efficient players, too. But the Bulldogs don't have an answer for Edey and one of the nation's top 3-point shooting teams. Utah State doubled Edey every time he touched the ball and he still had 21 points and 11 rebounds at halftime. And Purdue made 48% of its shots from beyond the arc.
Prediction: Purdue 85, Gonzaga 77
No. 1 seed Houston Cougars vs. No. 4 seed Duke Blue Devils
Friday, 9:39 p.m. ET, Dallas
Borzello: Duke was fantastic against James Madison on Sunday, with Jared McCain producing one of the best freshman performances in recent NCAA tournament history. The Blue Devils were lights-out from behind the arc, which is usually imperative against Houston's defense. But the Cougars' physicality and pressure on the defensive end could rattle Duke's guards from the outset and I don't think the Blue Devils have an answer for Jamal Shead.
Prediction: Houston 69, Duke 65
Gasaway: What was once overlooked with the vaunted Houston defense is plain to see after the Texas A&M thriller. The Cougars can be had on their defensive glass. Duke is great at getting second chances. Still, if any team's going to knock off veterans like Jamal Shead and the Cougars, will it really be the youngest rotation in the bracket? I don't think so.
Prediction: Houston 66, Duke 61
Medcalf: Now, this one is interesting. Duke has turned the corner and really showed its potential with the emergence of Jared McCain, the projected NBA draft first-round pick. But I'm not sure Houston will face more adversity than it did on Sunday with its top players fouled out and Texas A&M suddenly hitting shots and making plays it hadn't made all night. The Coogs still found a way to win with Jamal Shead. They'll control this matchup and find a win here, too.
Prediction: Houston 71, Duke 68
No. 3 seed Creighton Bluejays vs. No. 2 seed Tennessee Volunteers
Friday, Time 10:09 p.m. ET, Detroit
Borzello: The big question will be whether Creighton is able to figure out its ball-screen coverages after getting torched by Oregon's pick-and-roll game for the first 43 minutes of Saturday's game. The Bluejays can't let Dalton Knecht get going for 40. Tennessee really struggled offensively against Texas over the weekend, though, and Creighton's core quartet is difficult to stop.
Prediction: Creighton 74, Tennessee 72
Gasaway: The Bluejays have made more 3s in the tournament than any team. In their previous outing, however, the Jays went 6-of-26 beyond the arc and lost to Providence. Creighton also has the Sweet 16's shortest bench. By the second half on Friday, those Bluejay legs will be weary from facing this defense and the Vols will advance.
Prediction: Tennessee 70, Creighton 65
Medcalf: There were a lot of defensive issues in Creighton's win over Oregon, but that 15-0 run in the second overtime showcased its offensive capabilities. Saturday's win for Tennessee proved that the Vols can look like a different team if Dalton Knecht (1-for-8 from beyond the arc) ever struggles. But Creighton just has more options.
Prediction: Creighton 84, Tennessee 80