The 2024 coaching carousel has been slowly spinning in the background for a few months, but it was supercharged on Wednesday, when Ohio State opted to fire Chris Holtmann on Valentine's Day.
Holtmann started off in impressive fashion in Columbus seven years ago, leading the Buckeyes to a second-place finish in the Big Ten in his first season at the helm. He led them to the NCAA tournament in four of his first five seasons, the lone miss coming when the dance was canceled in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic.
But the wheels have fallen off the past two years. Ohio State started off 10-3 last season before losing 14 of its next 15 games and ultimately finishing 16-19 overall and 5-15 in Big Ten play. This season, the Buckeyes were 12-2 on Jan. 3, but lost nine of their 11 games since then, capped off by Tuesday's listless road defeat at Wisconsin.
So, he's out. Here's what you need to know about what could happen next in Columbus.
Where will Ohio State stack up among expected openings this spring -- and why did the Buckeyes make the move now?
Ohio State has the biggest athletic department in the country. It has a national championship and 11 Final Fours to its name and, before the past two seasons, was one of the most consistent programs in the country under Holtmann and, previously, Thad Matta. There's also a strong in-state talent base from which to recruit, and good facilities.
On the other side, the fanbase has grown seemingly apathetic over the last couple of seasons due to the downturn in form under Holtmann. This is also a football-first school, regardless of the success of the men's basketball program. Some coaches will like the lack of pressure that comes with not being the main focus, while others will be annoyed by the lesser attention the basketball program receives.
As evidenced by the bottomless NIL bucket for the football program and the $14 million-plus the school is spending to fire Holtmann, the money and resources will be there for the next coach.
The timing of Holtmann's ouster is interesting, too. Industry sources believe it was done now to beat other schools to the punch for the top candidates. Louisville is predicted to open in the coming weeks, while Indiana and Michigan could go either way. Ohio State will be a top-three opening at worst, though.
Who's running the search for the Buckeyes? Which candidates might be unrealistic due to buyout numbers?
First, it's worth noting that Ohio State is undergoing a change at the top of its athletic department. Longtime athletic director Gene Smith, who reportedly made the decision to fire Holtmann, is on his way out with incoming athletic director Ross Bjork officially starting work on July 1.
In announcing Holtmann's firing -- and naming associate head coach Jake Diebler as the interim head coach for the rest of the season -- the school made it clear Bjork would be leading the search. His interim role as senior adviser to the athletic director begins on March 1.
While money is no object to Ohio State, it's unclear if the Buckeyes will want to spend more than $14 million to fire Holtmann and then another eight figures to poach a coach from a different school.
Three coaches who would require those big numbers include UCLA's Mick Cronin, Iowa State's T.J. Otzelberger and Alabama's Nate Oats. Cronin, a Cincinnati native, has turned UCLA's season around after a brutal opening few months, but his buyout currently sits at $20 million and drops to $16 million on April 1. Otzelberger is having another impressive season in Ames, but has more than $17 million remaining on his contract. Meanwhile, Oats has things rolling in Tuscaloosa and is unlikely to want to leave anyway. But it would cost around $12 million to get him out of Alabama.
Who are the likely top targets for the Buckeyes?
There are four names that almost certainly will be near the top of Smith and Bjork's list, and it would be a mild surprise if one of them didn't get the job -- or at least receive an offer:
Greg McDermott, Creighton: McDermott has guided Creighton to eight NCAA tournaments since taking over in 2010 and has won at least one tournament game in each of the past three, including last season's run to the Elite Eight. The Bluejays are back in the mix for a top-four seed on Selection Sunday, and there have been growing whispers that McDermott is willing to look around at other jobs this cycle.
Sean Miller, Xavier: Miller was considered one of the best coaches in the country for a good portion of his tenure at Arizona, leading the Wildcats to three straight Sweet 16s and back-to-back Elite Eight appearances in 2014 and 2015. After getting fired in 2021, he took a year off, then returned to Xavier, where he had been head coach before taking the Arizona job. He led the Musketeers to a 27-10 record and a 3-seed in the 2023 NCAA tournament. The Musketeers are 13-11 this season though, with injuries among the primary reasons for the struggles.
Lamont Paris, South Carolina: Paris is the clear favorite for National Coach of the Year. The Gamecocks were picked last in the SEC in the preseason but currently sit atop the SEC standings with a 21-3 record (9-2 in the league). This is only his second season at the helm in Columbia, but he also had success at Chattanooga, leading the Mocs to the 2022 NCAA tournament. Here is what works in his favor here: He's an Ohio native who spent seven seasons in the Big Ten as an assistant at Wisconsin.
Dusty May, Florida Atlantic: May is among the hottest coaches in this year's cycle, after leading FAU to the Final Four last season. While the Owls have not quite lived up to their preseason top-10 hype so far, they're certainly headed back to the NCAA tournament, and are likely to be wearing home jerseys in the first round. May has high-major experience from his time as an assistant at Florida and is expected to be a target for Louisville if it opens. Indiana, where he was a manager under Bob Knight in the late '90s, is also an attractive option if the Hoosiers choose to move on from Mike Woodson.
Other potentially intriguing options: Oklahoma's Porter Moser, TCU's Jamie Dixon, Arkansas' Eric Musselman and Buzz Williams, who has been at Texas A&M with Bjork the past five years..
And if the Buckeyes want to go outside the box: Chris Mack, who last coached at Louisville and recently announced he was interested in getting back into college coaching; Colorado State's Niko Medved, Indiana State's Josh Schertz and Drake's Darian DeVries.