Is there a national championship favorite?
As we reach the midway point of the regular season and enter the two-month sprint to the postseason, no single team has separated itself as the team to beat in college basketball. And there was no better indicator of this than this past Tuesday and Wednesday, when four of the top five teams in this week's AP poll lost to unranked opponents.
It's fair to say there's a group -- on paper -- that seems like it has a higher ceiling than everyone else, but none is a bulletproof title favorite.
Here are the questions we think will determine the national championship discussion for the next three months. Some are similar to the questions we asked in the preseason, as the jury is still out on a few situations. Some questions are new (Arizona is now squarely in the hunt) and some were left in November (doesn't seem like we need to talk about UCLA anymore).
Keisei Tominaga splashes the 3-pointer, then Sam Hoiberg gets the steal and bucket to force a Purdue timeout.
Can Purdue pull a Virginia and go from historic first-round loss to a national title?
This is the biggest question when it comes to championship pecking order. In theory, the Purdue Boilermakers would be a popular Final Four pick. The Boilermakers have the best player in the country in Zach Edey, continuity from last season, a tournament-tested coach in Matt Painter and an elite offense with multiple options. But they've also had a few NCAA tournament disappointments in recent years, most notably last season when they became just the second 1-seed to lose to a 16-seed.
Purdue is better than last season. Edey has improved at both ends of the floor, the backcourt of Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer is a year older -- Smith has been one of the best point guards in the country -- and Lance Jones has been an impact pickup in the portal. They shoot it much better than last season, too. With that said, they've suffered surprising losses at Northwestern and Nebraska, and some of the same issues that caused problems at the end of last season -- turnovers, susceptible in space defensively -- have crept up again.
Kansas Jayhawks vs. UCF Knights: Full Highlights
Can Kansas find a reliable option on the wing?
Entering the season, we asked if Hunter Dickinson was the missing piece for the Kansas Jayhawks. The Michigan transfer has been tremendous so far this season, averaging career highs in both scoring and rebounding. He and Kevin McCullar Jr., who is in the midst of a true breakout campaign, are playing at an All-America level, and veteran starters Dajuan Harris Jr. and K.J. Adams Jr. are as solid as they come.
But Bill Self has been searching all season for a fifth option outside of his core four. Elmarko Jackson has started every game this season, but he has been held scoreless in each of his last two games and has hit double figures just twice all campaign. Towson transfer Nicolas Timberlake was expected to provide experience and perimeter shooting; he made three 3s off the bench in the season opener -- but has hit multiple 3s just once all season since. Freshman Johnny Furphy has shown flashes but has lacked consistency, while Jamari McDowell has barely gotten off the bench since the Maui Invitational. The Jayhawks have a great quartet at the top of the roster, but a lack of depth and dynamism on the perimeter are issues.
Tyrese Martin feeds it to Isaiah Whaley for the UConn dunk as they lead vs. Depaul.
Can UConn stay healthy and repeat?
The Big East had three of the top eight teams in the preseason AP poll, but the UConn Huskies have emerged as the most likely national championship contender from the league given the inconsistencies of Marquette and Creighton. And the key for the Huskies is going to be their top players staying on the floor. Donovan Clingan has missed time on multiple occasions and is still out for another couple weeks, while Stephon Castle is just now starting to hit his stride after missing several games. At full strength, though, Dan Hurley has a team capable of running it back.
Houston Cougars vs. Iowa State Cyclones: Full Highlights
How does Houston adapt to the Big 12?
This was a question before the season, and after Houston's loss in its first conference road game this week, it's still a legitimate storyline to monitor. And it's hard to tell exactly how good the Houston Cougars are right now. Their best wins this season are over Dayton, Utah, Texas A&M and Xavier. Now, there's still enough evidence to show the Cougars are among the best teams in the country. Their defense is incredible, ranking first in adjusted defensive efficiency, defensive turnover percentage and 2-point field-goal percentage defense. The backcourt of Jamal Shead and L.J. Cryer compares favorably with most guard duos nationally. But there's undoubtedly a step up in competition going from the AAC to the Big 12 and we won't get a feel for how Houston adapts for a few more weeks.
No. 4 Kentucky comes back in the second half thanks to Tyler Herro's 29 points as the Wildcats top Arkansas 70-66.
Can John Calipari win it all with a freshman-heavy lineup in today's college basketball?
This is basically the same question we asked at the start of the season -- but now, we're asking whether the Kentucky Wildcats can cut down the nets. It's clear this team is going to win games. They're 12-2 with a marquee neutral-site victory over North Carolina and just picked up an impressive road win at Florida last weekend. And in fact, the freshmen are arguably having a bigger impact than expected. Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham have been two of the best freshmen in the country, D.J. Wagner and Justin Edwards have been regular starters and Aaron Bradshaw is coming along. Calipari is getting great production from his key vets too, though, with Antonio Reeves playing like one of the best wings in the country and Tre Mitchell providing experience and an interior presence. Kentucky has more playmakers and shot-makers than nearly everyone in college basketball and the Wildcats' transition offense is unparalleled this season. If they continue to progress, they're good enough to win the whole thing.
North Carolina's Cole Anthony hits jumpers on consecutive possessions as the Tar Heels try to mount a comeback against the Wolverines.
North Carolina is in the midst of a bounceback season; how far can the Tar Heels go?
The North Carolina Tar Heels were one of two major disappointments that were expected to bounce back this season, with the Villanova Wildcats being the other. While the Wildcats are likely to get back to the NCAA tournament, North Carolina looks like a bonafide Final Four contender. Hubert Davis' team won its third straight road game in the ACC on Wednesday, and the Tar Heels already had wins over Tennessee, Oklahoma and at Clemson. Their defense has been truly elite. RJ Davis might be the best guard in the country, Armando Bacot is still among the premier bigs around and the portal additions of Harrison Ingram and Cormac Ryan have been key. Elliot Cadeau will be the X-factor moving forward. He's a passer with vision and had a terrific game against NC State on Wednesday, but he's still a freshman.
Caleb Love throws down powerful slam dunk vs. Utah Utes
Does Arizona's improved toughness and athleticism carry over to March?
We didn't even address the Arizona Wildcats in this column in the preseason, but the Wildcats looked like the best team in the country for the first month of the campaign, then lost three of five before averaging 94.5 points against the second- and third-best teams in the Pac-12 last week. Is Tommy Lloyd's team well-equipped to avenge last season's first-round NCAA tournament loss to 15-seed Princeton? Transfer additions Caleb Love and Keshad Johnson have brought experience and toughness at both ends of the floor, while point guard Kylan Boswell is a more physical, more consistent option than Kerr Kriisa last season. And there's plenty of size and physicality coming off the bench. They have more guys who can get their own shot, more guys who can defend in space and more guys who have won games in March.
Tyrese Proctor catches the pass from Jeremy Roach and knocks down the triple for Duke.
Has Jon Scheyer found the right personnel mix for Duke to live up to its preseason hype?
The Duke Blue Devils entered the season ranked No. 2 in the AP poll, but the Blue Devils started 5-3 with back-to-back losses to Arkansas and Georgia Tech -- and then starting guard Tyrese Proctor suffered an ankle injury. Since then? Duke has run off seven straight wins, including back-to-back ACC road wins and a neutral-court win over Baylor. Caleb Foster moved into the starting lineup for Proctor and has added an element of athleticism and aggressiveness off the bounce, while Jared McCain has really come into his own and Mark Mitchell broke out of his slump. Proctor has returned for the last four games and been a playmaking asset off the bench. There are still some kinks to work out, but with a supporting cast stepping up around All-American Kyle Filipowski, don't write off Duke yet.
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs: Full Highlights
Has Tennessee's offense improved enough for Rick Barnes to get back to the Final Four for the first time since 2003?
The Tennessee Volunteers are another team with several early-round flameouts in recent years -- but the Volunteers might finally have the right blend of offense and defense to make a deep run this season. They still have a top-five defense by the numbers, but the addition of Dalton Knecht, the improvement of Jonas Aidoo and the return to health of Zakai Zeigler have provided Barnes with his best offense in years. On the negative side, the defense isn't quite as stifling as it's been in the last three years. At this point last season, only two teams had scored one point per possession against the Vols. They've already allowed that number four times -- including 100 points to North Carolina. And while the offense is much better, it can still have its lulls for stretches, especially when Knecht isn't making shots.
Tyrese Martin gets the rebound and does a great job to grab the layup as the Huskies pad their lead vs. DePaul.
Last season's Final Four featured three teams that were unranked in the preseason; which surprise teams could get there this year?
The San Diego State Aztecs were the only team in last year's Final Four to be ranked in the preseason; the Aztecs were No. 19. UConn, Miami and Florida Atlantic were all unranked. SDSU, UConn and Miami all received top-five seeds in the NCAA tournament, so it's best to look in that range for potential March surprises. There are a few teams that fall into the range right now -- Clemson, Memphis, Oklahoma, Colorado State -- but Wisconsin and Auburn might be the most intriguing options. Wisconsin's offense is the best we've seen under Greg Gard, while Auburn is elite defensively and has plenty of depth and experience.
Is there a Florida Atlantic to be found? A team without an NCAA tournament win in its history going to the Final Four from a mid-major conference? That seems like a massive stretch, but Grand Canyon and McNeese State have clear early-round upset potential.