Who's ready to pick some upsets?
Now that we know the field for the 2023 men's college basketball tournament, you're trying to find that 12-over-5 upset that everyone just knows is coming. If you're like us, you'd also like some numbers to support that hunch.
Giant Killers is here for you. Back for a downright Boeheim-like 17th consecutive NCAA tournament, Giant Killers is our probabilistic forecast for March upsets.
You can read all about the details if you wish, but the idea is fairly straightforward. Giant Killers starts with a base probability of an upset from ESPN's College Basketball Power Index and adds the strengths, weaknesses and styles of the two teams in each matchup.
As always, Giant Killers considers only matchups with at least a five-seed line differential (so, a No. 11 over a No. 6 in the first round, for example).
We know there will be upsets. Our model is here to try to spot them in advance.
Here are Giant Killers' top 10 most likely upsets of the first round.
No. 12 VCU Rams vs. No. 5 Saint Mary's Gaels
Upset chance: 43%
Here it is, your No. 1 most likely upset according to the Giant Killers model. A classic 12-over-5 surprise. Or would it be? The model gives VCU something close to a coin-flip chance against Saint Mary's. Not bad for a double-digit seed.
The Rams have improved dramatically since the beginning of the season and indeed markedly just in the past month. Adrian Baldwin Jr. is a dynamic lead guard, and as a team the Rams combine interior defense with steals to a degree that's unusual. Mind you, the model still likes the Gaels and their own stout defense to come away with the win. But VCU definitely has a chance.
No. 11 Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. No. 6 Iowa State Cyclones
Upset chance: 42%
This may not be a Giant Killer matchup in the true sense of the term, since these are two major conference teams. Still, we are talking about a double-digit seed in the Bulldogs, one our model views quite favorably. First, however, Chris Jans and his team will have to play their way past the Pitt Panthers and out of the First Four.
Mississippi State is not particularly dynamic on offense and 3-point makes in particular have been few and far between. But Tolu Smith is a handful in the paint, and the Bulldogs have a defense that can match Iowa State's excellence on that side of the ball. This promises to be an intense defensive struggle between two very good teams.
No. 12 Charleston Cougars vs. No. 5 San Diego State Aztecs
Upset chance: 41%
The Cougars didn't compile a 31-3 record by being just another ordinary No. 12 seed. Pat Kelsey famously plays a deep rotation, and Charleston deploys all that personnel to play at the highest level of intensity for all 40 minutes.
Brian Dutcher's team has its own well-deserved reputation for intensity, of course, and the Aztecs are indeed the favorites. Even so, the model's keen to see what the Cougars can get done on offense in this game, especially on the glass. This is one of the better offensive rebounding teams you'll find at the mid-major level, and SDSU was just average on the defensive boards in Mountain West play.
No. 11 Providence Friars vs. No. 6 Kentucky Wildcats
Upset chance: 40%
Last year, John Calipari's Wildcats were the first team to lose to Cinderella darling Saint Peter's in a 15-over-2 upset that shook the NCAA tournament. In fact, Kentucky, which has the nation's leading rebounder in Oscar Tshiebwe (13.1 RPG), hasn't reached the second weekend of the NCAA tournament since 2019, so they have shown they are susceptible to early round upsets.
Perhaps the formula for Providence is to follow the Peacocks. Last year, they ranked among the teams to shoot the fewest amount of 3-pointers per game, but Kentucky couldn't stop them (9-for-17 from 3). Providence doesn't shoot as many 3-point shots either, but in averaging 78.1 points per game, the Wildcats will need to keep up with the Friars. Keep in mind that the Friars shoot 38% from deep in their 21 wins, which would rank 21st nationally. However, they shoot 30.4% from beyond the arc in their 11 losses, a figure that would rank 340th.
No. 12 Drake Bulldogs vs. No. 5 Miami Hurricanes
Upset chance: 39%
Drake is on a tear, having won 16 of its last 18 games, avenging a loss to Bradley at the end of the regular season with a 26-point drubbing in the Missouri Valley Conference title game. The Bulldogs rank 44th in adjusted defensive efficiency and ranks 25th in turnovers, so holding onto the ball will be crucial against a Miami team that scored 79.4 points per game.
Nevertheless, the Hurricanes will need to monitor the status of starting forward Norchad Omier, their third-leading scorer (13.6 PPG) and leading rebounder (9.7 RPG) who went down with an ankle injury 1:06 into the Hurricanes' ACC semifinal loss to Duke.
No. 11 Nevada Wolf Pack vs. No. 6 TCU Horned Frogs
Upset chance: 33%
How often have we seen it? A team is clearly on the bubble and watches the selection show on pins and needles. Then they go on a run and reach the second weekend.
Nevada fits the first part of that description, at least. The first order of business for the Wolf Pack, however, will be getting past Arizona State in the First Four. But if Nevada makes it to the round of 64, our model suspects good things may happen. A group that holds opponents to one shot and absolutely never commits turnovers might have a chance against the Horned Frogs.
No. 14 Montana State Bobcats vs. No. 3 Kansas State Wildcats
Upset chance: 26%
Now we're getting adventurous. Ready to pick a No. 14 seed? You're looking at just a one-in-four chance, of course, and we're already a long way down from the probabilities seen just three or so games higher on this list. Nevertheless, the Giant Killers model clearly likes what it sees from the Bobcats.
Danny Sprinkle's team absolutely lives at the line, and for its part Kansas State has been known to commit the occasional foul. If this turns into a choppy contest that puts one or more Wildcats into foul trouble, we could be looking at one significant upset.
No. 13 Iona Gaels vs. No. 4 UConn Huskies
Upset chance: 25%
Iona won the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference for the second time in three years under coach Rick Pitino and for the sixth time since the 2015-16 season. It shouldn't come as a surprise: The Gaels have won 14 straight games, holding opponents to 60 or fewer points nine of those times.
The Gaels can defend. They ranked eighth in opponents' 3-point field goal percentage -- which matches up well against a UConn team that relies heavily on the 3-ball -- but how will they measure up along the boards? The Huskies, with a frontcourt led by 6-foot-9 forward Adama Sanogo and freshmen Alex Karaban (6-8) and Donovan Clingan (7-2), rank second among all 363 teams in rebound margin (plus-9.1).
No. 11 Arizona State Sun Devils vs. No. 6 TCU Horned Frogs
Upset chance: 24%
Arizona State is once again beginning its NCAA tournament journey at the First Four in Dayton. The Sun Devils will face Nevada, and while our model likes the Wolf Pack in that one, it also thinks ASU can hold its own if it does reach the round of 64.
Bobby Hurley's team plays at a relatively fast pace and likes to pressure opponents into turnovers. The one area where this defense will occasionally take its chances, however, is on the perimeter. ASU doesn't necessarily chase opponents off the line and in fact can give up a high number of 3-point attempts. Then again TCU hardly ever shoots from out there. This could work in favor of the Sun Devils.
No. 12 Oral Roberts Golden Eagles vs. No. 5 Duke Blue Devils
Upset chance: 21%
How appropriate! The Oral Roberts coaching staff struggled mightily to schedule major conference opponents this season. Now the Golden Eagles will face no less a blue-chip name than Duke.
ORU was turned away by power conference programs that didn't fancy facing a scorer as prolific as Max Abmas. Nor did those potential opponents want much to do with 7-foot-5 Arkansas transfer Connor Vanover. The Giant Killers model suspects Oral Roberts will get many chances to score in this game. The Golden Eagles own the nation's lowest turnover percentage, and the Blue Devils don't record many takeaways.