NEW ORLEANS -- It's a blue-blooded affair in New Orleans this weekend, with 2022 Final Four participants Duke, North Carolina, Villanova and Kansas heading to the Superdome with a national championship on the line.
Three of the four winningest programs in history, with 61 combined Final Four appearances and 17 combined national championships. A group that has combined to win four of the past six national titles and seven of the past 13 titles. Three of the biggest brands in the sport, plus arguably the most successful program in the country over the past decade.
Despite North Carolina being considered at least a mild surprise to be here as an 8-seed, there is nothing under the radar about this year's Final Four. And there are also very few secrets at this point in the season -- especially when it comes to the side of the bracket featuring two teams that have faced each other twice this season and nearly 100 times since Mike Krzyzewski took over in Durham.
But nobody knows these teams better than the coaches who have had to prepare scouting reports for them multiple times per year for the past few seasons -- so we talked to a pair of veteran assistant coaches in each of the three leagues represented in the Final Four to get a feel for what to expect on Saturday -- and Monday.
Why has Duke turned things around defensively? What has made North Carolina so difficult to defend? How can teams defend Collin Gillespie? Who is the big key for Kansas?
Answers to those questions and more -- plus national championship game predictions:
Kansas Jayhawks
How they win
On post players: "It starts on the inside-out. Between [David] McCormack, [Mitch] Lightfoot, you have to figure out post defense. That's what opens it up for [Ochai] Agbaji, [Christian] Braun, then you start playing on closeouts. Puts you in peril against the big wings. The two posts are good passers. You have to dig on the post or help on the post, but those guys can pass to the help side. You can't say that about every post player."
On perimeter: "Braun and Agbaji are two of the elite wings in the country, at both sides of the floor. The emergence of Remy [Martin] -- I didn't think he would be [most outstanding] player of the region. You can't help off anyone now. You can help off [Dajuan] Harris [Jr.], but not Remy. It poses a lot of questions."
On balance: "Their wings are big and long. The guy that gets lost in the shuffle sometimes is [Jalen] Wilson, and he can hit you from inside and out. They're one of the more complete teams left in the tournament. Our scout earlier in the year was [saying] how the hell do you stop Agbaji. Now, the other guys can get you. Against Miami, they figured it out. A lot of it is they haven't played a lot of minutes together in real games. It seems like they're jelling well together. [Bill] Self does a great job defining roles. It seems like they've figured it out."
On defense: "Defensively, the two guards pester the ball in Harris and Remy. Then what they've done in the last three weeks, counting the Big 12 tournament, their defense has been better now than it had been at any point in the season. Their defense wasn't great, but they've been really good defensively. I think it's a focus thing defensively. Guys always played hard, but they just didn't have the focus on the little details. Taking away a catch-and-shoot guy from shooting a 3. They were locked in vs. Miami. They switch, keep you out of the lane. They don't have breakdowns, you don't have easy baskets against them in the half court."
On Ochai Agbaji: "Ochai is the guy, no question. When he's at their best, they're at their best. He can score in so many different ways. He is getting his within the framework of the team. He can shoot at 25 seconds, 15 seconds or five. Remy is not like that. He's creating the offense for himself. Because he doesn't allow the offense to flow as well, it becomes more iso ball."
Why they've lost
"We tried to get them in transition when we could. If you have a stretch-5, I think it puts them in peril a little bit. McCormack and Lightfoot aren't the most mobile bigs, so it's hard for them to switch 1 through 5. If you have a pick-and-pop 5, it draws their bigs away. That's where you can kind of get them. It's really hard to score in the paint on them. The bigs are probably the weak spot, if you have a big that can pop. Not roll. You can expose them some in that respect. But they've played K.J. Adams and the [Zach] Clemence kid, so if that becomes an issue, they've played minutes."
"One of the keys is David McCormack. He doesn't have to be explosive, but if teams can exploit him defensively. Texas Tech did it by pulling him away from the basket. If Duke plays them and he's matched up with Paolo [Banchero], it's a problem. He's not comfortable on the perimeter. But when he's anchoring the lane, then he's a little bit better. They can get some lineups that don't score well. They don't go super deep -- so you can get them into foul trouble and get deeper into their bench."
X factor
"Remy Martin. It's not a knock on Harris or the [transfer] from Drake [Joseph Yesufu], but you're not afraid of those kids like Martin. Earlier in the year, we didn't really respect Martin. We could help or dig on the post, stunt to shooters, because he wasn't in enough rhythm. It looks like he's in rhythm now."
"I lean McCormack [as the X factor]. Remy Martin played eight Big 12 games, they won the league and he hardly played. They can win without him. When McCormack has played poorly, they've really struggled. If he plays well, they're really, really hard to beat. Otherwise, teams can put pressure on your perimeter guys, Ochai especially. Throw it inside, get a basket, put foul pressure on the other team's bigs, it changes the game. You don't think about doubling if he's not playing well."
Plays you must stop
"Their traditional two-[man] game -- when they put the ball in the post and raise their weak side, who are you helping off of and who are you digging off of? It's always been that, how are you going to stop the two-game. It's easier to help when there are non-shooters on the floor. They never had non-shooters. You could never help off anybody. With Remy making shots, it puts question marks on how you want to guard them. Bill's going to be Bill. They're not going to come into the game and run new s---. They run what they run."
"Bill's the best in-game coach in the country. He will do whatever his team needs him to do to win. He'll zone, he'll play triangle-and-2, he'll play small, he'll play bigger, he'll play Remy after not playing him at all. He doesn't care. He just wants to win that day. Whatever that looks like, he'll do it. That gives them the edge over everybody else."
What happens on Saturday?
"I think they're going to have to figure out Gillespie, what's that matchup? He does a good job posting up. Jay Wright does a great job posting up their guards. As good as Remy Martin is on offense, he's not big on defense. We don't really have guards in the Big 12 that post up. What's the answer? Can Villanova keep Kansas off the backboards? And I think tempo. Villanova plays at a slow tempo. If they can keep Kansas out of transition, that's how they get you. Braun and Agbaji 3s in transition is how they [the Jayhawks] break you. Battle of who wins the paint: Villanova guards vs. Kansas bigs."
"Neither one of them is particularly deep, but the loss of Justin Moore is the equivalent of Kansas losing Ochai. That's their best guy. As tough as Collin is, I think Justin is their best player. I think that ultimately puts Kansas over the top. I think it'll be a really, really close game. Villanova still has that championship pedigree. They do what they do. But Kansas wins by three possessions."
Villanova Wildcats
How they win
On their principles: "What they do well is they control tempo. They control the pace of the game. On any made basket scored against them, they walk the ball up the court, they really don't allow you to dictate pace at all. They drag you into the game that they want to play. Offensively, they're incredibly disciplined in the way that they play. They're incredibly simple. There are only four or five actions that they'll look to run throughout the game. The rest is more conceptual in terms of how you want to play [Collin] Gillespie in pick-and-roll, whether or not you want to bring a second defender on a trap into the post. The way they move off the ball, their cutting and exchanging on the weak side of the floor, puts you in a little bit of a bind."
On their passing: "Everybody on the floor is a good passer. Obviously they do a great job of driving the ball and putting pressure in the paint. Shot fake beginning of the drive, land and pivot, shot fake again, play on two feet. They're in control all the time. They put you in precarious positions, with kickout passes, "one more" passes, oftentimes leads to wide-open shots. They shoot the 3 very well, shoot a lot of 3s, they never turn the ball over, they don't miss free throws."
On their defense: "Defensively, they're very tough-minded. They take pride in guarding the basketball, winning one-on-one matchups, being physical without fouling. Preventing dribble penetration, switching 1 through 4, 1 through 5, it's hard to put them in rotations, because they're so comfortable switching, especially in ball-screen actions. Guards do a great job fronting in the post. They do a good job of pressuring the basketball. When you run high-low, they're pinching in and flocking to the ball and throwing over the top. Not much is gained by trying to attack the switches in a traditional sense, like driving a big or posting a little. They're proficient at countering both of those attacks. They have guys that close out hard, communicate at a high level, and they're physical. And their pace of play on offense has a tendency to slow down teams attacking against them. It helps them to guard. An offense that has just gone and played 30 seconds, oftentimes been scored on, that does not allow for the same sort of excitement in attack."
On their shot-making: "They're at their best when they make shots. They've had games where they shot the heck out of the ball; they've had games where they struggle. If they get [Jermaine] Samuels and [Brandon] Slater to make shots, it will be a ballgame."
On Gillespie: "I think Gillespie is so hard to stop because anytime he gets a little bit of space, you know [the shot is] going down. He does a really good job of using ball screens, and if the big isn't up, it's a guarantee he's making up. He never gets rattled. He could have two points at halftime, he'll finish the game with 19. He's even-keeled. He figures out the defense. There's always a point in the game, he'll make back-to-back 3s, a couple plays. He's unselfish. He'll pass out of the hard hedge, then that guy makes another pass and there's no rotation for that second pass."
On their defense: "They switch everything 1-5. When you switch, there's never really an open person. Teams that hedge ball-screens, the roll guy is open, the guy in the corner is open, the lift guy is open. Because they switch, you never really have a guy that's open and you attack off the closeout."
Why they've lost
On Justin Moore, who suffered a torn right Achilles in the Elite Eight: "I think it's big. Justin Moore had the responsibility of guarding the best perimeter player. But because of their switching, that's maybe not as much of a thing, because different guys will end up on players depending on switches. He's the second-best player on the team. He's a big-shot maker. He and Gillespie are the two offensive players put in the most scoring situations, their two best post players. It's a big loss. But he missed the UConn game at home and they scored 85 points."
On Justin Moore: "It's a huge loss. Great scorer, great defender, probably the second-most talked-about guy on the scouting report after Gillespie. But they're also at their best when they feel like they're underdogs. Against UConn, they didn't have Justin Moore, they were up 20 in the second half. When they feel like underdogs, they play with a certain edge."
X factor
On Brandon Slater: "Slater is their X factor. You can say they're winning without Slater, but they need something. Samuels is always going to play the same way. He'll put pressure on you, whether he makes shots or not. Daniels would go a long way. He's been super aggressive all tournament. For them to win the national championship, Slater is going to have to step up and bang four 3s. And be different than what he's been."
On Caleb Daniels: "I would say Caleb Daniels [is the X factor] now that he's going into the starting lineup. Can he take a step? He struggled shooting against Houston. If he goes 3-for-11, it's going to be hard. If he goes 7-for-13, they'll be in a position to win."
Plays you must stop
On Gillespie/guard post-ups: "I think it's the guard post-ups. Gillespie doesn't try to post big guards. They also have a little slip ball screen that's confusing that messes people up. They have a sideline ball-screen slip with Dixon that they run, gets you out of position. Those are two actions they run. But it's the guard post-ups and what they do on the weak side. They're constantly exchanging on the weak side. Or they're flaring ball side. If Gillespie is on the post, Dixon is flaring. They keep your off-ball guys engaged so it becomes a one-on-one game. How you trap, when you trap, if you trap and what you're doing on the weak side."
On Gillespie: "Gillespie is reading you. Are they running off someone and my guy is cutting? Can I put them in a rotation quick? That is what he wants to do first and he's not as good as [Jalen] Brunson [was] in terms of scoring, but if you stay home and play one-on-one, he's good at scoring or getting fouled. Moore hurts them being out, because if they needed one basket, they would go to Moore in that situation."
On shot fakes/ball movement: "You have to talk a lot about the way the shot fake sets everything up. How quickly the ball moves, sets up the second shot fake. Seems simple, but it's a real thing. Houston wasn't prepared for that. It was a low-scoring game, but they weren't ready for the Samuels shot-fake step-through, it's the simple things. In terms of prep, it's easy -- but it's more about the particular binds they put you."
On weakside/switches: "It's the way they interchange. 'When the pick-and-rolls happen' -- it's a two-hour topic in a staff meeting. When a pick-and-roll occurs, does the low guy stay or go with his man? Normally we keep the help guy low and just switch but now you're getting your 4-man on a guard. It sounds very simple, but they're so good at interchanging at getting guys confused and losing guys. You really have to get your concepts down on that. They do it with a purpose and a reason."
What happens on Saturday?
"I think Kansas beats them. I don't think this is one of Villanova's great teams. [Kansas has] more NBA players, [is] better at what they do. Moore being out hurts them in a big way. Just the firepower. A lot of Villanova's success is because of the low [number of] possessions that they play. They've scored 71 or fewer every game but one since the start of the Big East tournament. Points aren't the most important, but having a guy who can get 15-16-17 points, been in many big games and Final Fours and stuff like that ... Big for them to lose that. Kansas has more talent."
"Villanova is susceptible in transition defense to getting scored on. They don't find themselves in that situation a lot because they're low-turnover, low-possessions. If Kansas can get out and push tempo, they can hurt Villanova. Kansas has more size than Villanova has seen. Another 3-point shooter out puts a lot of pressure on Slater and Samuels that aren't naturals in that role. Samuels scoring at the rim is going to be more challenging, Dixon scoring at the rim is going to be more challenging. I don't see them manufacturing enough points to win."
"Villanova wins 62-60. I think they're going to grind it out and try to make it a half-court game. Limit Kansas getting the ball in the paint. If Kansas doesn't make shots, Nova wins a close one."
Duke Blue Devils
How they win
On their balance: "When they're making shots from the perimeter, you're going to have a tough night. And when their balance is really cooking -- when [AJ] Griffin is making shots and making plays and Wendell Moore is impacting the game in all the ways he can, [Paolo] Banchero is scoring, [Trevor] Keels has 11-12 points, Mark Williams has rebounds and a few blocks, if everyone is playing well, ugh, good luck. When they're really humming is when they're balanced. When they're not making shots, they're all standing around looking at Paolo and they're easier to defend."
On Jeremy Roach: "The emergence of Jeremy Roach has been huge. He just gives them pace. When he's making shots or making plays off the dribble, it's just another guy in your paint. He just completes them. He gives them five guys out there that can hurt you. And that's really tough to defend."
On Keels and Moore: "Keels and Moore are just big. They are big as hell. That lineup is enormous. Moore getting downhill, he's upped his game this season. He's such a leader for them. He keeps it all together. Keels has to make shots. That's the difference. In losses, Keels didn't make shots. Moore didn't make shots. Paolo is playing out of his mind. He's confident shooting 3s now. But Keels and Moore have to step up to the plate."
On Paolo Banchero: "Paolo is going to be Paolo. They're going to isolate him at the top of the key or at the elbow, he'll dance a little. When Roach and Griffin aren't making shots, you can load up on Paolo, put guys in each gap."
On the zone: "The zone is just a 2-3 zone, but in the game, it's just a change of pace. It gets you standing still a little bit more, which is an advantage for them; it gets you shooting jump shots over length, which is an advantage for them; it keeps them out of foul trouble, advantage for them. Makes it harder to get to the rim, because Mark Williams is just planted in there. You can get the ball where you want to get it, but the adjustment and change of pace in the game has been really effective."
Why they've lost
On 5-out: "Teams that run motion and engage all five defenders are a problem for them."
On Mark Williams: "Mark Williams is a lot like [Armando] Bacot. You can go at him. You can put him in ball screens. It's tough for them to guard 5-out. Everybody can shoot, everybody can play off the dribble. Mark Williams gets to the top of the key and out of the lane. You can get him in foul trouble. When you take Mark Williams out of the game and put Theo John in, that's a huge downgrade."
X factor
"It's hard to argue that it's not Roach. I love Mark Williams. As awesome as he is, I think he's undervalued. But with Roach really coming on, they were missing that point guard play. They were searching for it for a long time. They've had it for a few weeks and that's made all the difference for them. You look at their return game at Virginia, that's really where he really took off. It was a big win, and he was lights-out that game. He's shooting 39% from 3 in his last 11 games. That's a game-changer for them."
Plays you must stop
"They're constantly putting pressure on your rim -- the downhill pressure of their guys off the dribble. And it's Paolo. I don't know if you can stop him, but you have to make it as tough as you can. You can put a like-sized guy or even a smaller guy on him, but they have to be physical with him. Make him score over you. Be there when he spins. Someone really bringing the fight to him is your best shot. I don't know if it will work, but it's your best shot."
On ball screens: "It's Paolo isolations and they'll also do a stagger with double-drag. Mark Williams and Paolo in the ball screen and they'll put Keels and Griffin in the corner. You have Roach coming off that thing and you have to figure out how you're going to guard it. Sometimes it's Paolo and AJ Griffin. You can't switch it because then you have a guard on Griffin or Paolo or Williams. It's that staggered ball screen with those two guys and Keels or Roach with the ball."
What happens on Saturday?
"I think Duke wins. As young as they are, they're seasoned. I think they've kind of arrived. The lights came on defensively. I think they missed some opportunities in some big games for Coach, the final game at Cameron, the ACC championship, I think they've grown from that. I think they're comfortable with it now and they're taking it on. They thought they had to play perfect; all they had to do was play hard. Coach K has put them at ease a little bit. I don't know what he's done behind the scenes, but publicly he's been great. He's having fun with it."
"I thought Duke was best [defensively] when they backed up into the half court, put their heels on the 3[-point line]. I wanted them to extend. They were extended against Texas Tech, but their strength is size at the rim. I had hoped they would pick us up so we could play in space. But when they backed it up and got stingy about not letting you in the paint, that was trouble. That could be trouble for Carolina if they do that."
North Carolina Tar Heels
How they win
On their guards: "When the guards are making shots, I don't know what the splits are, but when those guards make shots, it allows [Armando] Bacot to play one-on-one down there. And then that's when they're going at their best. Bacot and [Brady] Manek have been pretty consistent, so it's when those guards make shots."
On improved defense: "It's their focus and their commitment. I don't know if they're doing anything different, but they're more connected. I think Manek is taking more pride at that end of the floor; people were trying to go at him. I think they're a little more conscious when he gets isolated in space. Providing earlier help. Supporting him a little bit more."
On Armando Bacot: "He's got 29 double-doubles, multiple 20-rebound games. He's experienced. He's played 100 games, he's got really good balance down there. Doesn't get sped up. He's a really good player just body on body. He's big. Great touch. Plays at his pace. Good motor down there, on the glass. He takes a lot of pride in trying to get every rebound. It's a singular focus. His teammates know he's going to get the rebound."
On their transition and shooting: "You have to keep them out of transition. Anytime you play against North Carolina, you have to take good shots. If you turn the ball over, and it's a live-ball turnover, it's a 3 or a dunk. Take good shots, keep them off the glass. Just try to keep them out of transition. They have so many guys shooting the ball so well. Caleb Love, RJ Davis, Brady Manek the X factor. If he's running around banging 3s and getting on the glass, it's going to be really hard to beat them."
On their defense: "I don't think they've changed much schematically, Caleb Love and Leaky Black are just so good on the wing. We made it a point to not even run actions when they're involved. We wanted to get Brady Manek switched onto a big shooter. Then go at him in the post. Manek guarding the post and Armando in ball screens, you can attack them there. But those guys on the wing make it really hard. Initially, they were switching a lot of stuff with Manek at the 4, but they haven't been doing that as much with Manek. They're keeping him on whoever he's matched up with, which has been good for them."
Why they've lost
On half-court offense: "When they can't get in the paint, they settle for bad shots. Those guards just start taking off-the-dribble 3s. When they can't get in there, it makes it hard ... if there is somebody that can check Bacot one-on-one -- like Mark Williams. Bacot got in foul trouble the first [Duke] game. I think Mark Williams can neutralize Bacot, which is an advantage for Duke. Carolina needs Bacot to win that matchup. But remember the first time they played, Bacot got two quick fouls. He played 30 minutes, but by the time he came back in the game, it was over. They were down 29-8 at the 10-minute mark. It was over."
On Brady Manek: "At the beginning of the season, the middle of ACC play, I thought Manek was the key. Caleb Love is playing absolutely out of his mind. Doesn't matter what Manek is doing, Caleb Love is taking over the game. But if Brady Manek doesn't play well, I don't think they have a chance to win. Leaky Black doesn't help much offensively, Love is going to get his. If you can take away Brady Manek 3s, it makes them struggle."
On depth: "They have nobody coming off the bench; those five guys are basically playing the entire game. If you get Bacot or Manek in foul trouble, they gotta bring in Puff Johnson or Dontrez Styles and it changes their team dramatically."
X factor
"The guards, Caleb Love and RJ Davis [are the X factors]. Manek and Bacot have been consistent throughout the year. And it's probably more Love. This time of year especially, it's about guard play. If you look at Love's game log, it was a lot of up and down. Back-to-back losses in the middle of the year, nine points and five points. 5-for-27. Lost to Kentucky, he had 8. Beat Baylor in overtime, he only had five. 3-for-17 against Virginia Tech in the ACC tournament. He's their highest-usage guy so he needs to produce."
On Brady Manek: "I still think it's Manek. I think Manek is 1A and Caleb Love is 1B. You gotta do a job on those two guys. I think Virginia Tech doubling Bacot in the ACC tournament really helped. Teams have been hesitant because of how well they shoot the ball, teams are scared to trap, scared to rotate because of their rebounding. But trapping Bacot helped Tech. So it's the shooting of Manek and Love."
Plays you must stop
On "Stack": "The thing that gave us the most problems was their middle-of-the-floor action. Love with the ball, Bacot at the top of the key, Manek at the free throw line. How you guard the pick-and-roll. Bacot is diving to the rim hard as hell and Manek is replacing behind it, and then they'll go high-low. It's got four or five different layers to it. They call it Stack. [Coach] Hubert [Davis] puts his fist together, they go in the middle of the floor and you have to figure out how you're going to guard it."
On Manek: "You just have to figure out what you're going to do with Manek in the pick-and-pop situations. If you switch, you're putting your guy on Love or whoever. And then you have a [guard] on the backboard with him. If you don't switch, there's going to be some separation and he doesn't need a whole lot of time and space to get it off."
What happens on Saturday?
"I think Duke does not contain Caleb Love and Brady Manek the way they should and Carolina wins the game in overtime. You gotta have good guards, and Love and RJ Davis are just playing really well right now."
"I thought this was crazy, but in the first game, Carolina started Armando [Bacot] on Paolo and Armando got two fouls and that killed them. They learned their lesson the second game and they had Manek on Paolo and Bacot on Mark. Who is going to match up with who in the frontcourt? Whoever wins that frontcourt battle is going to win the game. Paolo is a great defender, but running around chasing Manek isn't an easy thing to do. It'll be interesting. I'm curious about the Paolo-Manek matchup. Whoever wins that is going to win the game."
Who wins it all?
Lastly, our six coaches made their predictions for Monday night.
Big East assistant: North Carolina over Kansas. "They're really confident. And maybe more so than any team left in the tournament, they have weapons on offense. If Caleb Love is playing as well as he's playing, he has an aggressiveness and confidence about him. RJ Davis is a secondary scorer and ball handler, Manek stretches the floor, Bacot is a walking double-double. They destroyed Duke last time they played them. There's just something about Carolina."
Big 12 head coach: Kansas over Duke. "I just think it's the experience of their players. They don't play any freshmen. Not that Kansas' guys have been in that game, but you talk about how much was on Duke to play Coach K's last game in Cameron. Now you're talking about the narrative heading into that last game. There's going to be an enormous amount of pressure on Duke, not Kansas."
Big 12 assistant: Kansas over Duke. "It's just their experience. At some point, it's going to be a factor. David McCormack has been there five years, Mitch Lightfoot six years, Remy Martin has played in the tournament, Agbaji and Braun have played in big games. I think in a one- or two-possession game, that's the difference."
Big East assistant: Duke over Villanova. "71-65. This year the team with the most talent wins. Duke has the most talent. This time of year, that's going to win it."
ACC assistant: Duke over Kansas. "I think Duke will have a hard time with Kansas. But it's destiny."
ACC assistant: Kansas over North Carolina. "I just think they're deeper than Carolina. They're going to wear them down."