Evidence. Empirical, verified reality. Data. Results. Science which, as Steve Martin once said, is pure empiricism and by virtue of its method excludes metaphysics. Now, in February, the dog days of the college basketball season, we have results and data that allow all to move beyond what we think about a team, what we believe can and will happen for a team, and dwell more upon what a team has accomplished on the floor. We also have eyes that allow us to conclude that a team or teams are not as good as the numbers suggest -- or are better than the analytics project.
Remember, the results and analytics tell us what a team has done. It does not tell us what a team is capable of doing in the future. Melding those two very important things together is the job of The Bilastrator and The Bilas Index, the best and most reliable compilation of basketball knowledge and accomplishment in the known universe. You're welcome.
The point once made by Bill Parcells that "you are what your record says you are" is a good one for accountability of the team in question ... at the end of the season. However, it is also important to acknowledge that many players and teams are capable of better, accomplishing more and playing at a higher level. Some teams have another gear; other teams have maxed out. There are several examples of teams that outperformed their records and data in the postseason, which is the ultimate question we are all trying to answer. Who is this team and who will it be in the "NCAA Tournament Bubble Event"?
We have learned a lot about this bizarre season of interruptions and uncertainties. The ACC is historically weak and does not have a team in the top 10 of The Bilas Index. Duke, North Carolina, Kentucky, Kansas, Michigan State and Syracuse are all unranked in the national polls as this week begins, which seems cataclysmic. For every step forward by each team, it seems as if it then takes two steps back. Kentucky is not showing a pulse toward the end of games, Michigan State is searching and Duke keeps teasing us by playing like an NCAA Tournament Bubble Event team then failing to build on that progress.
For the traditional powers, is it youth? Well, Michigan State, Kansas and Syracuse are not young. Is it the coaches? Probably not, although they put the teams together and deserve responsibility for that. Is it the players? Of course it is, primarily. Here is the truth: The players deserve the overwhelming majority of credit for winning and the overwhelming majority of blame for losing. Great coaches are very important. However, let's be honest here: No driver wins without a great car; no jockey wins without a great horse; and no coach wins championships without great players. Period. A coach can lose with great players, but a coach cannot win without great players. The ACC is down this season because of players.
The Big Ten is the best league this season because of players. Period. And with all respect, the idea that the Big Ten is the "best coached" and "best scouted" league in the country is baseless hyperbole that has been mindlessly repeated for a long time. It is just wrong. The Big Ten coaches are terrific, but they are not, as a group, better than some of the other leagues out there. Big Ten scouting is terrific, I'm sure. But the idea that such a thing has been quantified and determined by anyone to be better that the Big 12, ACC or SEC is laughable. The Big Ten, for all of the hyperbole about coaches, has only one coach who has reached a Final Four. That would be Michigan State's Tom Izzo. Izzo is the last Big Ten coach to win a national championship -- in 2000. So, let's just stop with that nonsense. The Big Ten coaches are terrific. But Big Ten teams are winning more this season because of players.
And don't get caught up in the endless discussion of "Quad Whatever" wins and losses. The quad system is a near-useless data point without supporting evidence and context. The NCAA NET has Drake, Loyola-Chicago and Colgate rated 13th, 14th and 15th. No, no and no. And don't get fooled by the fools who provide pithy thoughts about analytics-only or eye-test-only views. No reasonable basketball person suggests that seedings and rankings are predictive of the future. They are not. They are more reflective of the past, which is appropriate. However, part of this year's NCAA Tournament Bubble Event is predicting where value lies for the future, to find the teams capable of more, capable of higher levels of performance at the end. That is what The Bilas Index is all about. You're welcome, again, planet Earth.
1. Gonzaga Bulldogs
This team is simply fabulous, in every conceivable respect. I don't care whether this is Mark Few's best team. It is the best team this season? And is it standing out above the crowd in ways that historically great teams have stood out in past seasons? Is Gonzaga's competition as stiff as in other seasons? I would say no. But ... so what? Take this team for what it is: freaking fantastic. It is a close-knit group that seems to get along very well. It is a team of great teammates that complement and support each other. It has future NBA pros on the roster, which every nation champion has. The difference-makers are many on this team. Corey Kispert is the nation's best shooter, with impeccable form and accuracy in addition to improved strength. Kispert is not some "catch-and-shoot" guy, as that diminishes the difficulty and work required to get his shot while opposing defenses are working desperately to stop him. Jalen Suggs is an NBA lottery pick and one of a handful of the best prospects in the country. Joel Ayayi is the best "glue guy" star -- and he is a star -- in the country. Gonzaga is a great team not because it is the next in line of a great program but because these players are just better than those of other teams around the country -- and in Gonzaga history. Enjoy this team. It will take a great game to beat it.
2. Baylor Bears
The analytics love this Baylor team, but it doesn't take a look at the numbers to see the obvious. This Baylor team is different. When Baylor sets its collective foot on the gas, this team has another gear most cannot find. There are multiple scorers who can go one-on-one at the end of a clock, and there are role players who embrace their roles to a point of being stars by doing the simple thing consistently enough that it becomes remarkable to watch. If it weren't such a mental hurdle to get over, four Bears would be on my national defensive player of the year list, with Davion Mitchell and Mark Vital leading the way. This team has a championship vibe, and you cannot miss it. It also has a goose egg in the loss column -- and it has come against a tough schedule. The only thing that can derail this Baylor train is injury or pause.
3. Ohio State Buckeyes
The Buckeyes are another beautiful offensive team. There is versatility of big men, great schemes that move the defense then attacks it and excellent out-of-bounds plays. The key is the multipositional shooting that allows the offense to stretch the defense -- and allows the schematic creativity. The offense is Final Four good, but the defense is bend-but-don't break. Ohio State is undersized but tough and capable of being a very solid defensive team. The key? Guard the ball, position help and move as the ball moves. Sounds easy, but it is not. E.J. Liddell has been excellent and is one of the most improved players in the country. The combo of Liddell, Kyle Young and Zed Key (who is a load in the post with great feel and feet) can hang with anyone. With consistent play from Duane Washington Jr. (a terrific shooter), C.J. Walker (a good defender and handler) and Justice Sueing (a versatile wing), the Buckeyes can be a real threat to reach the ultimate four teams of the NCAA Tournament Bubble Event.
4. Villanova Wildcats
This is not a vintage Villanova title team but near the top among contenders for the two spots remaining in the top four that are not named Gonzaga or Baylor. Why is this not a vintage Wildcat team? Just the power of the players. This team just isn't quite as offensively gifted as some past Villanova contenders, yet this team is fully capable of beating anyone outside of the top two teams. Why? It takes care of the ball and works the clock to shorten the game and disrupt opponents' rhythm. Two players have to play well every game for Villanova to win at the highest level: Collin Gillespie and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl. Gillespie controls the ball and distributes it. He can back you down and play as a post guard. Robinson-Earl is smooth and ridiculously efficient. He can hit a 3, but he is deadly in the midrange. Villanova went on pause due to its incredibly strict policies and came back to play the most difficult style a team could after a layoff: the pressing of St. John's. The Johnnies sped up and turned over the Wildcats, which was expected by Villanova coach Jay Wright. Heck, even Gillespie turned it over six times. After having returned for a while, Villanova will be back. This team can be beaten, but its consistency over the long haul has Villanova in the top four.
5. Illinois Fighting Illini
Illinois and Michigan are the two teams that can lay claim to the two spots currently held by Ohio State and Villanova in The Bilas Index. The Illini are legit. They have two of the best 20 players in the country in Ayo Dosunmu and Kofi Cockburn. Dosunmu is coming off of a triple-double in a beatdown of Wisconsin (21 points, 12 rebounds, 12 assists), and Cockburn had 23 points and 14 rebounds against the older and sizable frontcourt of the Badgers. The defensive improvement of Illinois is impressive, especially with such young guards. The unsung hero of this team is Trent Frazier, who is a star-caliber player who can get 25 points in any given game, yet he is playing a role his team needs him to play. But basketball people know how good he is. Frazier is a respected player.
6. Michigan Wolverines
The local government in Michigan shut down the athletic program due to virus issues that we won't recount here. But other programs within the state are still playing. Michigan hasn't played since Jan. 22, a win over Purdue. Only one of Michigan's 13 wins is by less than double digits. The analytics say Michigan is third behind only Gonzaga and Baylor, but the lengthy pause demands that the pause be factored in as a limiting factor. If Michigan can get back to full operations in short order, there is no reason to believe the prior heights cannot be reached. But ... there is also no question that this pause sets the Wolverines back a bit in its development as a team.
7. Houston Cougars
First ... Our Lady of the Lake? Really? Second ... Our Lady of the Lake? Really? And third ... Our Lady of the Lake? REALLY? (Houston pummeled the Saints 112-46 on Saturday). Houston is a tough team, on the glass and on the defensive end. The only question is whether Houston can score efficiently throughout the NCAA Tournament Bubble Event. The Cougars can pitch shutouts on the defensive end and manufacture points off second chances, but they have to make shots to reach the ultimate quartet. The loss to East Carolina was tough to fathom -- although Jayden Gardner is a damn good player -- as the Pirates had lost five straight heading into the Houston game.
8. Iowa Hawkeyes
Ohio State beat the Hawkeyes in Iowa City in an entertaining shootout. Ohio State is legit. Indiana beat Iowa in Bloomington in a fistfight with the Hoosiers' playing excellent defense. However, Iowa was without CJ Fredrick in both games, who is struggling with plantar fasciitis. Frederick is the Hawkeyes' security blanket due to his ridiculous shooting efficiency and ball security. While Jordan Bohannon makes more 3s, Fredrick might be Iowa's best shooter. While Keegan Murray is Iowa's most versatile defender, Fredrick might be Iowa's best overall defender. Iowa, for all of its issues on the defensive end (which are real), can "out-offense" almost any team on any given day. But can Iowa win six games in a row in the NCAA Tournament Bubble Event? Yes, but a few other teams have a better opportunity to do so. Iowa has been playing an NBA schedule, with a bunch of games in short windows, and had lost four of the past five games. But that is life in the Big Ten this season. You can play well and lose. Still, the Hawkeyes are a beautiful offensive team with fabulous passers and shooters that will play into the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament Bubble Event, if Frederick is back and healthy.
9. Alabama Crimson Tide
Any team that can shoot it like Alabama is never counted out -- and can always beat almost anyone. Alabama was outplayed at Missouri yet still had a chance to win the game at the end. Almost half of the Crimson Tide's field goals are 3s, and they can bury you with them in a hurry. Alabama also plays ridiculously fast, as if the ball is a hand grenade with the pin pulled out. But the game needs good teams like Alabama that remind us that scoring is more fun than not. There are several different styles to play that are valid and that win. The issue is whether Alabama can figure out how to seize back the tempo when opponents try to slow it down. Both Oklahoma and Missouri were able to slow the tempo of the game and disrupt the Tide's offensive rhythm. Can Alabama play slower and still score with abandon? Alabama is going to win the SEC, and Herbert Jones should be SEC player of the year. No player in the league, and maybe the country, is as valuable in so many areas as Jones. He is a star.
10. Texas Tech Red Raiders
The Red Raiders have won three in a row but probably should have been clipped by LSU and Oklahoma. But the toughness and belief of this team netted Texas Tech two wins in close shaves. Is this a powerful team? No, but this is a very good team that will fight you to the last buzzer. Mac McClung has been very good and has surrendered to being coached hard by Chris Beard. His shot selection and decisions have improved greatly over the course of the season, and he has emerged as one of the very best guards in the nation. This week is rematch week with Baylor and West Virginia, and Texas Tech is looking to avenge close losses.
11. Wisconsin Badgers
The Badgers have lost three of five -- against Ohio State, Penn State and Illinois. But that is life in the Big Ten this season. Wisconsin is still damn good. The key is the leadership and play of D'Mitrik Trice, one of the best point guards in the nation. Trice can shoot it and pass it, and he has a very low error rate. Wisconsin can have some problems against the more physically skilled teams and guards in the country, but that's true of most teams outside of the top 5. The Badgers shot the ball poorly against Illinois, and opposing teams that can follow a scouting report and take away a couple of things from each player can have a profound effect toward beating Wisconsin. If you can run the Badgers off of the 3-point line, you can limit them. Wisconsin is about getting a slower tempo, keeping you out of transition and making opponents play against its set defense. Time of possession has to go Wisconsin's way.
12. Virginia Cavaliers
The Cavaliers shoot the ball well, but not from the backcourt. This is a different offense than in the past, and it is because of the varied skills of the frontcourt players. Jay Huff can step out and shoot it, is mobile and can play in ball screens with a roll or a pop. Trey Murphy III and Sam Hauser are the major 3-point threats. The guards are solid defenders but not the shooters that Virginia has had in the backcourt in past seasons. Remember, the Cavaliers won the 2019 national championship with its guards doing the shooting -- and with three future pros in Kyle Guy, Ty Jerome and De'Andre Hunter.
13. Texas Longhorns
The Longhorns were rolling before the virus disrupted everything. With a limited roster and no Shaka Smart, Texas fell one point short of Oklahoma, got beat by Baylor (join the crowd) and lost in double overtime at Oklahoma State. Still, Texas is good. Andrew Jones has had a really good season, and Courtney Ramey is the motor that revs the Texas engine. Is Texas a Final Four team? With a break or two in the bracket of the NCAA Tournament Bubble Event, it is absolutely possible. But for it to happen, Texas will have to shoot the ball better, also known as "getting hot at the right time."
14. USC Trojans
The Trojans have ridiculous length and physical skills around the rim, with Evan Mobley leading the way as a super talented freshman. USC allows only 41% field goal defense on 2-point attempts, which is remarkable rim protection. Remember, that includes run-outs and uncontested layups. USC drubbed UCLA by totally shutting down the Bruins' offense, and Ethan Anderson's healthy return has added another component to a team that can win multiple games in the NCAA Tournament Bubble Event. Mobley shoots over 60% on 2-point attempts, and he is one of the best rebounders and shot-blockers in the country. Plus, he is getting better and better. By June, Mobley could be the top overall pick in the NBA draft.
15. West Virginia Mountaineers
When Oscar Tshiebwe left Morgantown for Kentucky, it seemed the Mountaineers were out of contention for the Big 12 and for a spot in the Ultimate Quartet in the NCAA Tournament Bubble Event. Yet, the team that could always be counted upon to defend and generate turnovers is now the team whose offense is actually better than its defense. Miles McBride is one of the 10 best guards in the country. With Taz Sherman and Sean McNeil hitting shots (they combined for nine of West Virginia's 11 3s against Kansas) and Derek Culver one of just a few big men averaging a double-double in the Power 5, West Virginia can go toe-to-toe with anyone. But the schedule for the rest of February is brutal for the Mountaineers.
16. Florida State Seminoles
The Seminoles were rolling before losing at Georgia Tech and going on pause while on a road trip to Boston College. The depth and physical skills of this team are impressive to watch -- and imposing to opponents. We have praised the play of M.J. Walker and RaiQuan Gray, but the emergence of Balsa Koprivica might be the difference between a postseason appearance and a postseason run. Koprivica is more assertive and much tougher. He provides a tremendous impact upon an already good team. The only thing that can derail Florida State is more pauses. After the previous pause, the Seminoles came back playing even better.
17. Oklahoma Sooners
The Sooners have matured into a very tough out. It has been a very simple formula: Oklahoma takes care of the ball, protects the paint and demands you make tough shots. It does all this without fouling you and letting you shoot free throws. If you can shoot the deep ball or if you can really pound the offensive glass, you can give the Sooners problems. Plus, Oklahoma is not a juggernaut on the offensive end. But Oklahoma does not lose; you have to beat the Sooners.
18. Missouri Tigers
Damn, the Tigers are fun to watch. Missouri just fights you on both ends of the court. The Tigers cannot shoot the ball from deep, yet they find a way to generate opportunities off of its defense and drive the ball and get to the free throw line. Xavier Pinson and Mark Smith can stretch you, but neither are deep threats who can kill you. Jeremiah Tilmon is a beast in the lane. He can get angles and seal defenders with his big body. Remember, the Tigers have beaten Oregon, Illinois, Tennessee and Alabama en route to a 13-3 start. The NET says No. 25. I say higher.
19. Colorado Buffaloes
The Buffaloes have eight players who shoot better than 80% from the foul line. With free throw shooting like that, the goal has to be to get fouled on every possession. Colorado is coming off of a great win over Arizona in which Evan Battey had 21 points and McKinley Wright IV, one of the best point guards in the country, tallied 17 points and 6 assists. Down the stretch, Colorado needs to rack up some more quality wins. So far, the best wins are against Arizona, USC and Stanford.
20. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Ron Harper Jr. gets the headlines for Rutgers -- and he should. But one guy who has been undervalued has been Myles Johnson. The long-armed, savvy big man has proved to be an excellent defender who can break contact, move his feet and get around post players to make steals and deflections. Johnson is a very good rebounder, shot-changer and lane-disrupter. Rutgers looked like it was going to struggle with a five-game slide in January, but the Scarlet Knights have not lost since Jan. 21, posting four straight wins.
21. Tennessee Volunteers
Defense is not a problem for Tennessee. Consistent scoring is the issue that can hold this team back a bit. But against Kentucky, when down double digits at Rupp Arena, the Vols discovered the keys to unlock the next level of offense. It is the aggressive, shot-hunting offensive of freshmen Jaden Springer and Keon Johnson. Both are big-time recruits who have deferred and played key supporting roles. Well, it's OK for them to be stars; they were stars at Kentucky. The two freshman combined for 50 points on 18-of-33 shooting at Rupp. That is difference-making.
22. Virginia Tech Hokies
The Hokies escaped with a miracle win at Miami in which Hunter Cattoor hit a 3 at the buzzer of regulation to tie the game and send it to overtime. Never mind that Cattoor stepped out of bounds and the officials missed it; it was a terrific play and a terrific, clutch shot by the player who was supposed to play for Mike Young at Wofford. After losing Tyrece Radford to suspension, Virginia Tech has steadily improved -- and steadily competed. Everything you look at on paper says Virginia Tech is vulnerable. Yet, watch the Hokies on film and they are a bear to beat. This is a team to be admired and one you should not take lightly. We will see just how good this team is over the next three weeks; the finishing schedule is a much more difficult stretch.
23. Purdue Boilermakers
How does Trevion Williams not get more media coverage? That dude is a star and one of the most inspiring players in the college game. Williams had one of his quietest outings against Northwestern but otherwise has been excellent, averaging over 15 points and almost 10 rebounds and shooting better than 50% from the floor while defenders hang off him. His clutch plays at Michigan State were spectacular, and he was all Maryland could handle in the Boilermakers' one-point loss in College Park. Against Maryland, Williams had 23 points and 11 rebounds, and he hit 9-of-11 from the floor. In a league of outstanding big men, Williams can hang with anyone. Anyone.
24. Kansas Jayhawks
The Jayhawks have lost five of seven, but they have played one of the toughest schedules in the country. Is this Kansas team a legit contender for the Big 12 title or an Elite Eight run? No. Kansas is not as physically skilled, has limited shooting and lacks interior strength. The Jayhawks can shoot the ball but have difficulty creating open shots. Kansas is still having trouble drawing help on drives and opening up drive-and-kick opportunities. Is No. 24 too high for Kansas? Maybe. While a bunch of teams outside of the top 25 can beat Kansas, can you really say any of them are legitimately better? Nah. Kansas is here because of the number of quality wins, the schedule and the history.
25. Creighton Bluejays
Damn, Creighton can score. It is so much fun to watch the Bluejays play on the offensive end. And when you can score that easily, sometimes defensive attention can wane and be inconsistent. Yet, defense is what stands in the way (or shows the way) to winning in the NCAA Tournament Bubble Event.
26. Xavier Musketeers
The most underrated player in the country is Xavier's Paul Scruggs. The 6-foot-4 senior is averaging 15 points, 6 assists and almost 2 steals while shooting just under 40% from deep.
27. Drake Bulldogs
The Bulldogs keep falling behind and winning. That cannot, and will not, last forever. But this is a solid, good team. Is it the team the NET says it is? No.
28. Florida Gators
The Gators are a puzzle. With Keyontae Johnson, this is a top 15 team. Without him, Florida has performed very well and surprised with how tough and together it has been. Yet, after winning four in a row and looking like a corner had been turned, the Gators dropped a game to South Carolina at home. Tough ones against Tennessee, Arkansas and Missouri remain before the SEC tournament. Florida wins with defense and toughness. When playing pretty is in the picture, losses follow.
29. Maryland Terrapins
Life in the Big Ten, right? There have been some good wins, including at Wisconsin, at Illinois, at Minnesota, at home against Purdue. Yet stack those up against nine conference losses and it's been an up-and-down ride so far.
30. UCLA Bruins
Even without injured standout Chris Smith (knee), Mick Cronin's team is tied for the Pac-12 lead and is going to have a great opportunity to win the conference. The Bruins need to get Cody Riley (ankle) and Jalen Hill (who missed Friday's USC game for personal reasons) back on the court for a team that can't afford to be any more short-handed down the stretch.
31. Oregon Ducks
The Ducks are another Pac-12 team playing without its full rotation, as leading scorer Chris Duarte (ankle) and forward Eric Williams Jr. (COVID-19 protocols) both missed Saturday's game against Washington. It was a good sign, then, that Oregon still managed to win that game with only seven players getting minutes. Rutgers transfer Eugene Omoruyi (25 points, 5 rebounds) had one of his best outings of the season for a team that is going to be very dangerous in March.
32. Clemson Tigers
Just when you thought Clemson was fading, the Tigers scored back-to-back wins over North Carolina and Syracuse and again displayed the power they had demonstrated during that 9-1 start. Brad Brownell's group defends it well (seventh in NCAA defense, per BPI) but is going to have to be more consistent from beyond the arc (30.8% from 3-point range in ACC play) if it wants to have staying power in March.
33. Indiana Hoosiers
Archie Miller is on the cusp of the first NCAA tournament bid of his Indiana career after his team completed an impressive home-and-home sweep of Iowa on Friday night. There will be no easy outs for IU the rest of the way, but the Hoosiers will have a chance any time Trayce Jackson-Davis takes the floor. The Wooden Award candidate has scored in double figures in all 18 contests this season and comes off back-to-back double-doubles against Illinois and Iowa.
34. Louisville Cardinals
How will the Cardinals handle life without Chris Mack, who will miss Saturday's scheduled contest against Virginia Tech after testing positive for COVID-19? Luckily, top assistant Dino Gaudio (ex-Wake Forest coach) has been through the ACC battles. Carlik Jones has been a revelation for Louisville since transferring from Radford: He is an ACC player of the year contender but needs to be more consistent from 3 (just 1-of-10 in his past two games).
35. Minnesota Golden Gophers
The Golden Gophers had lost five of six before taking down Nebraska on Monday night, but this remains a dangerous team, with wins over Michigan, Ohio State and Iowa to its credit this season. Dazzling guard Marcus Carr and 7-footer Liam Robbins give Richard Pitino a unique inside-outside combination.
36. Colorado State Rams
Niko Medved's Rams have an inside track on their first NCAA bid since 2013 because they shoot the ball extremely well in all phases. CSU ranks in the nation's top 25 in 3-point rate (38.3%), 2-point rate (55.8%) and free throw rate (77.5%). What's more, all of those numbers have gotten better in Mountain West play, signaling a team that is continuing to improve.
37. San Diego State Aztecs
This might not be last season's Malachi Flynn-led group that looked like a serious Final Four contender, but these Aztecs are gathering a head of steam as March approaches. SDSU is on a four-game win streak, with those victories coming by an average of 31.5 points. Matt Mitchell (15.5 points, 5.2 rebounds per game) has been one of the Mountain West's most productive players.
38. Richmond Spiders
Richmond has not quite lived up to its preseason billing, but the Spiders are right there in a wide-open Atlantic 10. Blake Francis (16.6 points per game) and Grant Golden (14.8 PPG) have been great for an effective offensive team, but the true leader of this group is point guard Jacob Gilyard, the nation's leader in steals (3.8 per game) and steal rate (5.7%).
39. VCU Rams
VCU is another team with a realistic chance to win the A-10, and upcoming games scheduled against St. Bonaventure (Friday), Richmond (Feb. 17) and Saint Louis (Feb. 23) are bound to be telling. Nah'Shon "Bones" Hyland is one of the best players in the country who not nearly enough people are talking about; the 6-foot-3 sophomore and NBA prospect has 75 points in his past three games combined.
40. North Carolina Tar Heels
Consider Saturday's win over Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium a mental hurdle cleared for the Tar Heels, who might not be a vintage Roy Williams group but are well-positioned for March. If point guard Caleb Love can bring the type of effort he showed against Duke (25 points, 7 assists) every night, a UNC team that remains a major handful down low is going to have few flaws.
41. Saint Louis Billikens
Travis Ford's team went more than a month between games due to COVID-19-related postponements, and the Billikens have struggled to find their footing since returning to the floor. But SLU's decisive home win over St. Bonaventure on Saturday looked more like the team we expected heading to the season. Senior wing Javonte Perkins was terrific, with 21 points, 6 rebounds and 4 assists.
42. LSU Tigers
Few teams have more talent than the Tigers -- Cameron Thomas, Trendon Watford and Ja'Vonte Smart are all terrific players -- but harnessing those abilities on a given night will be the trick for Will Wade. LSU has lost four of its past five to fall down the SEC pecking order. Its 31.1% shooting from 3, which ranks 10th in the SEC, has been among the recent culprits.
43. BYU Cougars
The Cougars might not be quite in Gonzaga's class in the WCC, but there is much to like with Mark Pope's crew. BYU is tough inside thanks to 7-foot Purdue transfer Matt Haarms and the emerging Gideon George, and also has quality guard play from Alex Barcello and Brandon Averette. Watch out for the Cougars in March.
44. St. Bonaventure Bonnies
The Bonnies find themselves leading a top-heavy Atlantic 10, with Mark Schmidt fielding yet another team that punches above its weight class. Point guard Kyle Lofton makes them go, leading the team in scoring (15.5 PPG), assists (5.0 per game) and steals (1.5 per game). If Lofton can pull out of a 3 for 34 slump from 3-point range, the Bonnies are going to be extremely difficult to beat when it matters.
45. Arkansas Razorbacks
The degree of difficulty in getting a bunch of new faces to come together is always high, but Eric Musselman's transfer-heavy group is starting to figure it out. The Razorbacks have won four of their past five and are making a move, including a 61-45 win over Mississippi State on Saturday in which they put forth their best defensive effort of the season.
46. Penn State Nittany Lions
Hats off to interim Penn State coach Jim Ferry, who has refused to allow PSU to quit amid the uncertainty that surrounds the program. The Lions are just 7-8 but can count a number of quality wins -- against Virginia Tech, Rutgers, Wisconsin and, most recently, Maryland. If this guard-dominated team can pull out some wins on the Big Ten road down the stretch, it will be hard to leave out of the NCAA tournament.
47. Stanford Cardinal
It might feel like a lifetime ago, but remember that this is the Stanford team that took down Alabama -- decisively -- in an 82-64 win in Asheville, North Carolina, on Nov. 30. Oscar da Silva (19.4 PPG, 7.2 RPG) is going to give the Cardinal a chance to win every night. And if Stanford can get freshman phenom Ziaire Williams back after an absence that is currently at six games, this team could be trouble in March.
48. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Despite Monday night's loss at Allen Fieldhouse, hopes remain high for a Cowboys team that possesses the presumptive No. 1 pick in Cade Cunningham and also owns quality wins since January over Kansas, Arkansas and, most recently, Texas. The schedule is going to be brutal for OSU in the season's final weeks, and this team is going to get a chance to prove it belongs in the top half of the Big 12.
49. Michigan State Spartans
If you're seeking a diagnosis for what has troubled Michigan State, you can pick any of these areas where the Spartans currently rank last in conference play: effective field goal percentage (44.2%), turnover rate (19.4%), 2-point field goal rate (43.3%) and steal rate (10.6%). Translation: MSU must shoot it better and cut way down on turnovers if it wants to make a run.
50. Duke Blue Devils
It's not over for the Blue Devils, but they're running out of time -- and a three-game stretch with seemingly winnable games against Notre Dame, NC State and Wake Forest is a time for Duke to pull it together. The Devils played well enough to win against North Carolina, shooting nearly 60% from the field in a 91-87 loss, but you're almost always going to lose when your opponent shoots 10-of-15 from 3-point range.
51. Syracuse Orange
It's been feast or famine for the Orange, with decisive wins like one over Virginia Tech in league play and blowout losses against Pittsburgh, Virginia and Clemson. But there are a bunch of winnable games in Syracuse's concluding stretch, and it will prevail if top scorers Quincy Guerrier (15.8 PPG), Alan Griffin (15.5 PPG) and Buddy Boeheim (14.2 PPG) shoot it consistently.
52. UConn Huskies
The Huskies have lost three of their past four but remain the Big East's mystery team: How will they look when star James Bouknight returns from the elbow injury that has knocked him out of the team's past six games? Whenever Bouknight comes back, Dan Hurley will need Tyrese Martin and R.J. Cole to continue sharing the scoring load. Both Martin and Cole have posted double figures in scoring in the team's past five games.
53. Toledo Rockets
The MAC race is going to be thrilling to watch down the stretch, as Toledo is one of a number of teams -- Akron and Kent State also feature prominently on this list -- that could end up atop the regular-season standings. The Rockets earned a convincing win over the Zips on Feb. 2; newcomer JT Shumate was outstanding (25 points) for a team that has consistently shot the ball from the field and from the line.
54. Boise State Broncos
Derrick Alston Jr. is a future NBA pro and one of the best players in the country.
55. Loyola Chicago Ramblers
The metric systems love the Ramblers, who are 12-1 in an always-quality Missouri Valley Conference and look like they would receive an at-large NCAA bid if the season ended today. We'll know a bit more about Porter Moser's group after this weekend's back-to-back against Drake in Des Moines. Cameron Krutwig (15.5 PPG), one of the heroes of Loyola's 2018 run to the Final Four, is putting together a fine senior season.
56. Utah State Aggies
The Aggies have the inside track on the Mountain West regular-season title. The continued outstanding play of 7-footer Neemias Queta (12.5 PPG, 9.1 RPG) is a major reason. Queta has blocked at least four shots in seven league games, including 13 rejections in his past three games combined. USU's upcoming two-fers against Boise State and Nevada at the end of the month could be where the conference title is won or lost.
57. Seton Hall Pirates
It was hard to know how Seton Hall would adapt after the Myles Powell era ended, but coach Kevin Willard has done a tremendous job of carving out a new identity for this team. Sandro Mamukelashvili (17.9 PPG, 7.1 RPG), the 6-foot-11 senior, is going to get most of the attention from opponents, and rightly so. But wing Jared Rhoden (14.5 PPG, 6.6 RPG) is one of the most improved players in the country and is also a handful.
58. SMU Mustangs
SMU has been up and down during the first half of the American Athletic Conference season. But the schedule gets easier for the Mustangs (they're done playing Houston, for starters), and there's reason to believe this is a unit that can peak near the end. Kendric Davis is one of the tremendous floor generals in the country, a player who can rack up double-digit assists or score 20-plus points on you every night.
59. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
A couple of more signature wins would be handy for a Yellow Jackets team that is still fighting off the perception that came with losses to Georgia State and Mercer back in November. Wednesday's home game against Virginia will be one such opportunity; point guard Jose Alvarado was great against the Cavs last time out (20 points, 8 assists), but the Jackets fell apart late.
60. Memphis Tigers
The Tigers are talented but tough to figure out, a team that is No. 1 in conference play in 3-point rate (39.6%) and yet somehow dead last in the American from the free throw line (60.1%). Boogie Ellis has made more 3s (25) than he has shots at the line (21 of 34, 62%). Penny Hardaway's group still gets Houston twice and will have a golden opportunity to peak when it matters.
61. St. John's Red Storm
One of the great stories nationally is the emergence of the Red Storm, who have won six in a row to emerge as a factor in the Big East race -- and have done it with style. Julian Champagnie (19.7 PPG) has been phenomenal. But the heart and soul of this team might just be tough-as-nails freshman point guard Posh Alexander (11.8 PPG, 4.5 APG, 2.7 SPG), who has been playing more like a senior than the teenager he is.
62. Winthrop Eagles
The Eagles were finally tripped up when UNC Asheville upended them by a 57-55 score on Friday night, but a 16-1 record heading into two huge road matchups with Radford on Thursday and Friday is nothing of which to be ashamed. Winthrop takes exceptional care of the basketball and has a couple of quality wings in Chandler Vaudrin (12.6 PPG) and Adonis Arms (11.3 PPG) who do a little bit of everything.
63. Wright State Raiders
The Horizon League battle between the Raiders and Cleveland State looks like it will go down to the wire -- the teams split a pair of games on Jan. 15 and 16 -- but don't bet against Scott Nagy's Wright State group emerging with the regular-season title. Senior Loudon Love (15.8 PPG, 10.2 RPG) and sophomores Grant Basile (14.2 PPG) and Tanner Holden (16.1 PPG) have all been really productive for a team that has kept Dayton on the basketball map this season.
64. Davidson Wildcats
The biggest mystery for the Wildcats might be their forthcoming schedule: Games against key A-10 opponents Saint Louis, St. Bonaventure and VCU (twice) have all been postponed for coronavirus-related reasons, and Bob McKillop's team hasn't played since Jan. 24. When they return from their layoff, super senior Kellan Grady (17.4 PPG) will try to keep things rolling.
65. Saint Mary's Gaels
The Gaels have played better basketball since a three game-slide that saw them lose double-digit outings against BYU and Gonzaga. A big surprise has emerged for Saint Mary's in the form of junior guard Logan Johnson, who has racked up 31 points and eight assists in his past two games combined, including 14-of-19 on 2-point field goal attempts.
66. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
If the Hilltoppers can emerge from a tough Conference USA race and reach the NCAA tournament, it will allow viewers to get a closer look at Wooden Award candidate Charles Bassey. Bassey has been as good as advertised for Rick Stansbury's team, a double-double machine who has surpassed 20 points in four of his past six games. A key two-fer against North Texas on Feb. 19 and 20 would allow WKU to pull closer to UAB in the C-USA race.
67. UC Santa Barbara Gouchos
The Gauchos have quietly won eight in a row to climb into a tie with UC Irvine atop the Big West standings. UCSB is seeking its first NCAA tournament bid since 2011 and has a fighting chance thanks to the exploits of JaQuori McLaughlin (16.6 PPG, 5.2 APG). McLaughlin, who started his career at Oregon State, has logged double figures in scoring during every game of the Gauchos' current win streak.
68. UAB Blazers
The Blazers have been terrific in their first season under alumnus and former ESPN colleague Andy Kennedy, pacing Conference USA with a 9-1 record. UAB gets scoring from every member of its regular rotation and also plays solid defense, with C-USA's best defensive efficiency (91.1) and turnover rate (23.4) in league games.